Major Shocker: Conservatives Win Australia as Labor's Climate Agenda Backfires


Every poll in Australia had the Labor party winning the national election. Instead, the Conservatives won.

Before discussing the results, it's important to note that Australia's "Liberal" party would be deemed as conservative in the US.

With that fact out of the way, Liberal Scott Morrison was reelected despite all polls suggesting otherwise, for two straight years.

Please consider Election 2019: How the Polls Got it so Wrong in Predicting a Labor Victory.

Nearly all polls predicted Bill Shorten would have an easy win with a 51:49 lead over Prime Minister Scott Morrison on a two-party preferred basis. In fact, for two years the polls had picked the Opposition to take government.

Instead it was a shock loss for Labor which was hit by a blue sweep through Queensland, less than desirable results in Victoria and a return to the status quo in Western Australia.

Former Newspoll boss Martin O'Shannessy blamed the flawed forecasting on the fact that many people's telephone habits have changed.

ABC election analyst Antony Green agreed the sampling used to be much more reliable. "They switched from an operator asking questions to randomly calling mobile numbers and robocalls," he said.

Psychic Croc Gets It Wrong Too

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Social Media Expert Picked Trump, Brexit, Morrison Correctly

Data mining expert from Griffith University Professor Bela Stantic, who predicted Donald Trump's election to US presidency and Brexit, uses his own methods to gauge opinion.

Through his own independent research, Professor Stantic analysed 2 million social media comments relating to key terms and predicted Labor would not pick up the key seats needed.

What Happened to Climate Change?

Also consider Election 2019: What Happened to the Climate Change Vote We Heard About?

It was supposed to be the big issue of the 2019 Australian federal election: climate change. A range of polls and surveys had left many analysts, myself included, with the sense that this would be a crucial issue at the ballot box.

The annual Lowy Institute Poll demonstrated stronger support for climate change action in Australia in 2019 than in any previous survey since 2006.

But in the end, we saw a decline in the primary vote for the Labor Opposition, who had announced a more significant reduction target than the Government and a suite of measures — from investment in renewable energy to an energy guarantee — to get there. More consequentially, of course, we saw the re-election of a Government with limited ambition on emissions reductions.

It's the Economy, Stupid

The article notes some victories by the Greens but not enough to overcome quality of life and job concerns.

In Queensland, constituents view large scale mining operations as a crucial potential source of income and employment.

In this election, Australians were suddenly faced with a prospective Labor Government ready with a suite of measures to tackle climate change. And they were presented with an account of these measures as a devastating economic blow to Australian prosperity and growth.

Climate Change Battle

The Global Warming Policy Forum has some interesting quotes in AFTER ANOTHER DEFEAT, CLIMATE POLICY THREATENS TO DEVOUR LEFT PARTIES.

  • We have lost Australia for now,” warned Penn State climatologist Michael Mann in an email. “A coalition of a small number of bad actors now threaten the survivability of our species,” he said. –Joe (the-end-is-nigh) Romm, Sink Progress, 18 May 2019
  • Scott Morrison’s ‘miracle’ election win has been cheered by US conservatives and compared to Donald Trump’s surprise 2016 presidential win. The Liberal campaign had emphasised the cost of Labor’s climate change policies – which included reducing carbon emissions by 45 per cent by 2030. And while Labor campaigned against the controversial Adani mine, the Coalition focused on the jobs boost of the new development. On Saturday night, former Australian Prime Minister John Howard said Labor’s stance on climate had cost them the election. —Daily Mail, 19 May 2019
  • The coalition successfully made cost the dominant issue in the climate change debate. Climate change may be the first battle in the long war that is reshaping democracy all over the world. —The New York Times, 19 May 2019
  • For Labor, this is an untrammelled disaster. Climate policy too will need to be re-examined. Climate change destroyed Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard’s prime ministerships; it has now contributed to Bill Shorten’s destruction too. Voters accept the science and they tell pollsters they want something done. But whenever conservatives frame climate policy as a threat to voters’ livelihoods, they win. –Ben Eltham, New Mathilda, 19 May 2019

The End is Nigh

Mercy me. The end is nigh. The survivability of man is in question says Penn State climatologist Michael Mann.

And of course AOC says, among other things, we only have 12 years to live.

  1. AOC "New Green Deal" Stunningly Absurd: Far More Ridiculous Than Expected
  2. AOC's Green New Deal Pricetag of $51 to $93 Trillion vs. Cost of Doing Nothing
  3. Hilarious Video of 8-Year-Old Imitating and Mocking AOC

Number 3 is priceless. Here is the video in a Tweet.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (22)
No. 1-12

Every democrat candidate has endorced man-made gloBull warming, which by itself makes Trump's chances very good for reelection. The fact that it is still snowing in the lower 48, and the summer is looking to be a short one, is further indication the cooling cycle, which began in 1999, is going to be a bad one (i.e. crop failures, malnutrition, plagues, wars, etc.).


This was Australia's first test flight of the global warming rocket into a struggling economic environment. It exploded on the pad.


The ecology movement "won" to the extent that everybody lifts a finger to recycle now. But environmentalism hasn't risen to be principal cultural value. Some loudmouths and brainwashed students talk about it, and it is especially easy to talk about what other people should do. But individuals looking at their own lives care far more about: their cash flow, their kids, and their health. Very few people will, in the voting booth, seriously consider sacrificing the quality of their own lives to trees and polar bears.


Global warming is real and we need to keep an eye on it. But in terms of threats to our survival, it doesn't even crack the top 100. The politicians have usurped it and have no idea what they're talking about. They're scientifically illiterate. And it shows whenever they make dire predictions that don't materialize.

Runner Dan
Runner Dan

“Before discussing the results, it's important to note that Australia's "Liberal" party would be deemed as conservative in the US.”

“…and downright fascists by the MSM.”


Global cooling will be a better sell. It will just take about 10 years and then we can cycle back to the 1970's version and worry over the "coming ice age". We need to give up freedom now as the end is always near!!


Polls have been unreliable for a long while now.


Penn State climatologist Michael Mann: “A coalition of a small number of bad actors now threaten the survivability of our species”. Correct, and those are all the s***holes with out of control population growth. Next to Australia is Indonesia, home to once most pristine coral reefs, now a plastic dumping ground. These pseudo eco-greens are a stain on the environmentalism when they fail to even mention the true culprit.


When did a poll at 51-49, probably with margin of error of 3 or 4 points, indicate an easy win? Seems like a perfectly reasonable result to me.


The Sportsbet bookies were so sure that Labor was going to win, they paid out two days before the poll - oops!

An entertaining side show was the self-styled Trump wannabe Clive Palmer whose slogan was, "Make Australia Great". The portly billionaire spent $55 million of his money on advertising for his own party, only to win zero seats in the parliament. It's estimated that each vote he received cost him $1,500


Rupert Murdoch's News Corp which owns 73% of Aussie news media played a big part in the LNP victory - Many LNP voters want action on climate change - it is the biggest issue for the majority of Australians.

Global Economics