Johnson Seeks Election on Dec 12, Queens Speech Passes Unaltered

Mish

The Queens Speech won Commons approval today and all amendments were defeated. This may pave the way for elections.

Queen's Speech Passes

Amendments Fail

SNP amendment that says “the house regrets the UK government’s intention to use the Immigration Bill to end freedom of movement within Europe”. The SNP’s amendment to the Queen’s speech was voted down by 310 votes to 64.

Labour Amendment voted down 311-293

Monday Debate on December 12 Elections

Johnson Writes Corbyn

Johnson's Statement

"If this parliament is anything to go by, that delay could go on for a very long time because it looks as though our EU friends will respond to parliament’s request by having an extension, which I really don’t want at all."

"The way to getBrexitdone is, I think, to be reasonable with parliament and say if they genuinely want more time to study this excellent deal, they can have it, but they have to agree to a general election on 12 December."

"“It’s time frankly that the opposition summoned up the nerve to submit themselves to the judgement of our collective boss, which is the people of the UK.”

Liberal Democrats Chime In

A second referendum has almost no chance and never did.

SNP Wants No Confidence Vote

Election Math

Trap Door?

That is pure nonsense. The trapdoor cannot be removed by the UK. Say an amendment passes requiring the next PM to not go for a WTO Brexit. The next government can easily pass new legislation allowing it.

Summation

Clock Ticking

The EU will announce its extension decision Friday. I suspect Johnson will accept or reject on Monday, most likely the former.

But If Johnson rejects, there will be three days to Brexit. And there would not be time to oust Johnson. He would refuse to resign.

If Johnson has any legal Ace in the Hole gambit that succeeds, there will be a No Deal Brexit on Thursday or Commons will reconsider the Withdrawal Agreement.

Johnson's strategy will come down to the EU's extension offer.

Conditions or a short extension window are certainly in play despite the talk otherwise.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (21)
No. 1-12
Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland

Tomorrow, the EU position will be clear. Please, make it stop!

Yancey_Ward
Yancey_Ward

Mish, he will only accept an extension offer on Mondy if the motion for elections passes. If it doesn't, I predict he waits until the last moment and refuses the extension, and goes to court, but then Brexit happens on Thursday unless Parliament removes and replaces Johnson with someone who will accept the extension, or the EU abrogates their own laws to grant the extension over Johnson's refusal. This really is head Johnson wins, tails Johnson wins. Elections can't be put off forever, and the Remainers clearly won't revoke Article 50 any time soon, so Johnson just has to wait for that election.

Bagger
Bagger

Latest theory from EU - offer a 2 stage extension! Stage 1. Extension to end November (to satisfy Macron). If deal does not complete ALL stages of UK Parliament by mid November then Stage 2 applies. Stage 2. Extension to end Jan 2020 (to satisfy other 26 Leaders). Sounds good in principle but terrible in practice. No incentive for Remainers to pass the deal. Might as well go straight to Stage 2. Initial indications that neither SNP nor Lib Dems will vote for December election. Their reason appears to be that they will never vote for anything Boris suggests!

Deep Purple
Deep Purple

*"The EU will announce its extension decision Friday

I suspect Johnson will accept or reject on Monday, most likely the former.

At that point, there will be three days to Brexit. There will not be time to oust Johnson. He would refuse to resign."*

There is a mistake somewhere. If he accepts an extension, then there is more than three days. If he rejects it, then he breaks the law and MPs can take him down. This is not a win-win situation but a draw-draw situation. The only exception is if the EU comes to help him with a January 31 deadline.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Block clarified per Deep Purple suggestion.

I suspect Johnson will accept or reject on Monday, most likely the former.

But If Johnson rejects, there will be three days to Brexit. And there would not be time to oust Johnson. He would refuse to resign.

If Johnson has any legal Ace in the Hole gambit that succeeds, there will be a No Deal Brexit on Thursday or Commons will reconsider the Withdrawal Agreement.

dansilverman
dansilverman

Johnson should reject the extension. Britain crashes out of the EU. Then Johnson should have no problem getting the Withdrawal Act passed. I didn't know Johnson could accept or reject the extension.

Deep Purple
Deep Purple

A lot of people seems to think that a long extension is bad for Johnson. In my view, he actually wants a January 31 extension because he is in a perfect place for an election right now.

The election offer today was not a message to Corbyn. It was a message to Macron, an excuse for France to allow the January extension because a UK election is coming. However, the French answered a few hours ago:

"If there’s a clear scenario that will change things, for example a ratification or elections – not just suggested but organised – then we can take decisions."

It would be interesting to see if the EU is actually split on this or they are playing roles. I am inclined to think that the latter is true. Macron will get his moment as the tough guy and it will prevent the solution of the UK deadlock.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Noticed a subtle change today. Only one reason for it and it's on purpose. Please read and see what it says to you.

Main road signs, until this week, said.

"FREIGHT TO EU PAPERS MAY CHANGE 1 NOV PLEASE CHECK"

Now........

"FREIGHT TO EU PAPERS CHANGE 1 NOV PLEASE CHECK"

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

PM Johnson can reject an extension if it comes with conditions because the Benn bill requires him to accept a January 31, 2020 extension, but nothing else. The EU has already placed a condition on holding hearings on an extension until the withdrawal agreement was ratified, so I expect conditions to be placed on the extension request. There is no time limit placed on how long PM Johnson can take to evaluate a counter offer.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Six000, I believe the Benn act requires Johnson to accept any offer or present it to Commons for them to accept. Which they would

Mish
Mish

Editor

"Mish, he will only accept an extension offer on Monday if the motion for elections passes."

This line of thought by @Yancey is interesting.

But I suggest that If the EU does what I expect, he will say accept the deal or accept elections. Their choice.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"A lot of people seems to think that a long extension is bad for Johnson. "

It is bad. It could lead to Eurointelligence option 3. A shift to ask the EU for a customs union deal of some sort. All kinds of nonsense.


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