Italy and Iran Spreading the Coronavirus Like Mad

Mish

Global coronavirus cases outside of China growing exponentially. The main sources of global transfer are Italy and Iran.

Italy Connections

  1. Italy Cases Today: 566 new cases and 5 new deaths in Italy, for a total of 1,694 cases.
  2. Italy Cases Yesterday: 239 new cases and 8 new deaths in Italy.
  3. Italy Total Cases: Among the 1,577 active cases, 779 (49%) are hospitalized, 140 of which (representing 9% of active cases) are in intensive care. Among the 117 closed cases, 83 (71%) have recovered, 34 (29%) have died.
  4. Scotland from Italy: 1st case in Scotland (UK) a "resident of the Tayside area and has recently travelled from northern Italy".
  5. Iceland from Italy: 1 new case in Iceland: a man in his 60s who arrived from Verona, Italy, yesterday with Icelandair.
  6. Finland from Italy: 5 new cases in Finland: including an elderly person and a school-aged child, both related to a previous case who had travelled to northern Italy.
  7. Czech Republic from Italy: First 3 cases in Czech Republic. They had all recently traveled to Northern Italy.
  8. Algeria from Italy: 1 new case in Algeria: an Italian citizen.
  9. Netherlands from Italy: 5 new cases in the Netherlands: Three of them visited Lombardy, Italy.
  10. Mexico from Italy: 1 new case in Mexico: first in Chiapas, a student who had traveled to Italy.
  11. US from Italy: 1 in Rhode Island: a man in his 40s who had traveled to Italy in mid-February.
  12. Luxembourg from Italy: 1st case in Luxembourg: a man around the age of 40 who returned from Italy through Charleroi last week with his family.
  13. Spain from Italy: 25 new cases in Spain. At least one arrived from Italy.
  14. Switzerland from Italy: 10 new cases in Switzerland, of which 4 in the circle of two children of an Italian family in Graubünden who tested positive last week.
  15. Norway from Italy: 1 new case in Norway: an employee at the eye department at Ullevål University Hospital in Oslo, as tests were conducted on 4 staff members with symptoms after that, on Feb. 28, Covid-19 infection was confirmed in a staff member who had traveled to Northern Italy, showed symptoms on Sunday but still went to work on Monday and Tuesday.
  16. Brazil from Italy: 1 new case in Brazil (second in the country): as with the first case, the person was in Italy.
  17. UK from Italy: 12 new cases in the UK. 6 had traveled to Italy. 2 had traveled to Iran
  18. Italy Flight Cancellations: American Airlines has announced it is suspending flights to and from Milan, Italy from both New York and Miami from March 1, 2020 until April 25, 2020, citing reduced demand. The announcement comes only hours after the U.S. State Department said it was raising its travel warning to Level 4: Do Not Travel for parts of Italy due to the coronavirus outbreak

Iran Connections

  1. Iran New Cases: 385 new cases and 11 new deaths in Iran
  2. Qatar from Iran: 2 new cases in Qatar: they had both been evacuated from Iran
  3. Bahrain from Iran: 6 new cases in Bahrain: 3 female Bahraini nationals, 2 male Bahraini nationals and 1 male Saudi national, arriving at Bahrain International Airport via indirect flights from Iran.
  4. Iraq from Iran: 6 new cases in Iraq: 2 in Baghdad, 4 in Sulaimaniya. They had all recently traveled to Iran.
  5. Lebanon from Iran: 3 new cases in Lebanon, all three had visited Iran.
  6. Georgia from Iran: 1 new case in Georgia: a Georgian citizen who, having returned from Iran.
  7. Canada from Iran and Egypt: 5 new cases in Canada. Two traveled to Iran, one to Egypt.
  8. Travel Bans: Incoming travel from Iran to Australia is banned starting Sunday. Appropriate level of travel advisory to Italy is being considered. But "it's not possible to further isolate Australia," said Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy, adding that the focus should be on detection and containment instead.

Last Two Days Only

Those Iran and Italy details are from Worldometers for the last two days only.

Licking Madness in Iran

CDC Incompetence

Extreme Politicization by VP Pence and Donald Trump Jr

Better Late than Never or Too Late to Matter?

Spotlight US and Canada

Trump has banned travel from Iran.

He needs to immediately ban are travel from Italy and South Korea as well.

Canada has not yet banned travel from Iran.

This is truly crazy.

What are they waiting for?

What's Happening

  1. Feb 19: Fed Minutes Highlight Coronavirus Concerns and Uncertainty 8 Times
  2. Feb 24: Bond Yields Crash and Gold Soars on Pandemic Threat
  3. Feb 25: CDC Admits Spread of Coronavirus in the US Appears Inevitable
  4. Feb 25: Lie of the Day: This is Not a Pandemic
  5. Feb 25: Nearly 50% Odds of "At Least" 3 Rate Cuts by December
  6. Feb 26: Trump says We are "Very, Very Ready for the Coronavirus, for Anything"
  7. Feb 27: Useless Act: California Monitors 8,400 People for Coronavirus; 33 Test Positive
  8. Feb 27: Containment Fails: Coronavirus Tweets of the Day
  9. Feb 27: Tweets of the Day: Iran's VP Infected, Japan Closes All Schools
  10. Feb 28: 5 Mistakes by the CDC and FDA Set Back Virus Testing
  11. Feb 29: China PMI Contracts to the Weakest on Record
  12. March 1: Powell Floats "Fed Will Act As Appropriate" Rate Cut Message
  13. March 1: State of Emergency in Alameda County
  14. March 1: Florida Governor Declares State of Emergency
  15. March 2: Global Recession Now Baked in the Cake

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (53)
No. 1-11
Corto
Corto

What is the point of banning travel? It will be throughout the entire population in short order anyway. Does anyone really think their city/area won't be affected? --Ed: I suppose it could slow the spread.

perpetually_confused
perpetually_confused

Not sure why you say it's crazy Mish? It's all purely human reaction to something that cannot be controlled. We try to brush it aside, or downplay the severity but that won't help. Just like the Spanish flu of 1918, this thing will end up going around the world a few times for the next couple of years no matter what precautions we will, have, or did take. Based on Kotter's 8 step model of change we're very early in the process, maybe step 1. We've got a long way to go.

Carl_R
Carl_R

We are rapidly approaching the point where everyone will have to give up trying to contain it. It has been slowed a lot, but enough, I don't know. It took 20 days to go from 100 to 1,000 cases outside China, and 13 days to go from 1,000 to 10,000. By March 12th I think we will have 100,000 cases outside China, and there is no way they can trace them all. They will continue to quarantine infected people, but move to the next step, encouraging people to stay home, not travel (anywhere), and to avoid public gatherings.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

What I wish the U.S. government would do that they still have not done is give the public better insight about what response will unfold as major outbreaks of COVID-19 occur within the US. Alex Azar has stated that cordon sanitaire will not be used. Okay, what will be used? Can we expect school closures? Will public transportation be mostly shut? Are U.S. public officials going to keep these plans secret until there are lines outside of hospitals like happened in China?

If they want the public to remain calm, then they should clearly state the government strategy in more detail and give people a reasonable framework to plan from. It is the lack of detail that causes me concern. Look at the testing situation with the CDC. That was a major scandal before anyone in a leadership position would even acknowledge that the US is not yet able to effectively monitor community transmission of cases. Meanwhile, the President keeps emphasizing how few cases there are. Those two facts are inconsistent, and that feeds public concern.

tokidoki
tokidoki

Italian numbers should go down, because of the following:
"But according to the Health Ministry, Lombardy has also carried out swab tests on people who are more likely to have come into contact with infected people, even if they have no symptoms themselves.

On Thursday, after insisting that their comprehensive approach to testing was the right one, Lombardy said it would now conform with national and international guidelines and test only people showing symptoms."

It appears that Mike Pence is now in charge of the Italian response team as well. "If we don't test, we can't have a pandemic"

And people still have the nerve of constantly bashing the Chinese. ROFL. They will come out of this looking among the most competent.

crazyworld
crazyworld

I pointed out many times earlier that this virus is very dangerous. More dangerous than the seasonal flu whose severe infection cases number is dampened by the great proportion of older and weaker people vaccinated each year.
I also concluded from datas earlier that there were a lot of untested bearer spreaders everywhere. They now appear by the hundreds in most countries as testing finally started.
So as of now without containment measures it will spread faster than the seasonal flu.
I must repeat here that it kills at least ten time more patients than the flu and is at least 50 per cent more contagious.
So if that virus would be left alone like the seasonal flu the number of infected persons requiring an hospital bed with medical devices would probably be 15-20 time higher than in the case of the
yearly flu epidemic.
There are no countries having enough hospitals, medical personnel and beds, as would be needed. Wuhan initial lack of medical services has been a warning in that matter.
So containment in order to reduce the speed of infection is an obligation in order to avoid a public health disaster to happen.(the like as in Wuhan where peoples were dying probably by thousands everywhere at the beginning.)
I think that in every country they know that fact. So containment measures and the associated collapse of the service sector everywhere will go on until a remedy is found..

Jackula
Jackula

Its a bit on the late side for finger-pointing RE past bad decisions. We need test kits ASAP so we can get an idea how widespread it is and start slowing the spread by locking down areas and halting/shuttering anything but critical infrastructure and food/supply outlets.

BoneIdle
BoneIdle

These countries should take a leaf out of the Australian governments book.

The government itself is taking advice from a respected panel of medical experts and not letting political constraints get in the way.

They already stated a couple of weeks ago that the virus can’t be contained.
They have ignored the WHO and have stated that this will be a pandemic. They are also ignoring Chinese statements and statistics.

They are getting prepared for a large amount of cases in April / May.

They have already communicated to the general public to get ready for isolations.
(This has caused supermarket panic buying but it will settle down as people get stocked up).

Under the medical advice they are under no illusions that hospitals and general health facilities will be stretched so will allocate funds to help this along.

My local GP is being briefed with updates.
He already told me weeks ago that Chinese style isolations are not out of the question.

The economy is going to take a hit. The government has communicated this to the general public and told them to be prepared.

Chinese tourism to Australia is worth AUD$16 billion per year. It’s dried up already fir 6 weeks.
There are 200,000 Chinese national foreign students normally in Australian universities.
There are 100,000 still in China awaiting to come back to Australia after the New Year break. They’re barred from reentry.
Massive disruption to the economy. Worth billions.
Not to mention Australia’s raw product exports not getting to China.

AussiePete
AussiePete

Here's an interesting article that claims vitamin D supplements are "up to" ten times more effective at avoiding the flu than the flu vaccine, (if you're "severely deficient", which a lot of people are)...

sangell
sangell

Remember this is a "NOVEL" virus ( and China hasn't been that forthcoming with its data) so its not like there is a ready made data source or test kit available to determine who is infected and who is not.Toss in that phylo-geneticists say the infected population doubles every 5 to 7 days and there is no way anyone or organization can stay ahead of this virus.

Things we still don't know. Incubation time, that R naught rate, Case Fatality Rate, Reinfection rate ( if any). Its all estimated from studies over less than two months since the virus was identified and its genome mapped.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Comparing Italy and Irans's deaths to the Death Princess, both have about 13x as many deaths now. It seems likely that they have 13x as many cases, meaning 9,200, that have been around a week or more (it takes awhile to go from infection to death). They also would have additional, more recent cases in Italy and Iran, since their data set is not constrained by the size of a ship. I would guess that both countries probably have more like 25k infections, rather than the reported 2500.

If you apply the same methodology to S. Korea, they are probably catching almost all their cases. I would do the same for the US, but most of their cases are from people repatriated from either Wuhan or the Death Princess, and who were never out in the general population.


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