Inflationistas Sound Alarm
Inquiring minds are diving into the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the BLS.
For the month, the CPI jumped 0.5% but year-over-year the CPI was flat.
CPI Year-Over-Year Major Categories
Shelter, the largest weighted component in the CPI, helped limit the month-over-month rise.
It's curious the BLS does not consider shelter a "major category" even though it constitutes 32.8% of the CPI.
The thin blue line in the above chart connects January 2017 to January 2018.
Four months from now, energy will give a big boost to the year-over-year CPI even if the price of crude remains steady.
The May 2107 close was $46.04. A jump from $46.04 to $60.81 would constitute a 32% year-over-year jump.
Crude will place increasing upward pressure on year-over-year CPI comparisons unless it takes a big dive soon.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock