Industrial Production Unexpectedly Declines


Industrial production unexpectedly slipped in March, down 0.1% vs an expected gain of 0.3%.

The Federal Reserve Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report was far weaker than expected this month.

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in March after edging up 0.1 percent in February; for the first quarter as a whole, the index slipped 0.3 percent at an annual rate. Manufacturing production was unchanged in March after declining in both January and February. The index for utilities rose 0.2 percent, while mining output moved down 0.8 percent. At 110.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 2.8 percent higher in March than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in March to 78.8 percent, a rate that is 1.0 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2018) average.

Auto production fell 2.5%. In the first quarter, auto production fell 12.8% at an annualized rate, the biggest decline in almost eight years.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

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Bond Market Reaction

Bond yields rose on this weakness. The 30-year long bond is at 2.994%, again flirting the the 3 percent level.

The 5-year to 3-month inversion is nearly gone. The former is 2.404, the latter is 2.436 a spread of -3.2 basis points.

Hot retail sales numbers coming up on Thursday?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (7)
No. 1-6
Ted R
Ted R

Deflation is in the air. And once it starts there is nothing you can do to stop it. It must run its course.


Lookin at these numbers,without massive (overt)QE or war,Trump relection chances are zero.....maybe less than zero.....and he knows it!


The Industrial Production is a kind of thing which attract the buyer to the home and this house is the same looking location which I am talking about.


Decade long dead economy which barely has a pulse after massive fed money printing defib to the tune of ohhh,(conservatively)half a quadrillion dollars printed over the decade,if they're gonna keep this Weekend at Bernie's economy breathing (barely)just to get through the election (if there is one)it will take herculian levels of money printing and deep NIRP and that might buy another year or 2..if that!

Global Economics