Industrial Production Rebounds after GM Strike Ends

Mish

With GM back in swing, Industrial production rose 1.1% after two dismal months.

The Fed's Industrial Production Report for November shows a rebound in production, and notably manufacturing.

  • Industrial production and manufacturing production both rebounded 1.1 percent in November after declining in October. These sharp November increases were largely due to a bounceback in the output of motor vehicles and parts following the end of a strike at a GM.
  • Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the indexes for total industrial production and for manufacturing moved up 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. Mining production edged down 0.2 percent, while the output of utilities increased 2.9 percent.
  • Manufacturing output rose 1.1 percent in November after having been held down in September and October by the strike in the motor vehicle industry. An increase of 2.2 percent for durables primarily reflected a jump of 12.4 percent for motor vehicles and parts, but even excluding motor vehicles and parts, the output of durables moved up 0.6 percent. The indexes for primary metals and for computer and electronic products advanced 1 percent or more, while the indexes for nonmetallic mineral products, furniture and related products, and machinery declined modestly.
  • The production of nondurables edged up 0.1 percent, as increases for plastics and rubber products and for food, beverages, and tobacco products were mostly offset by decreases for petroleum and coal products, for chemicals, and for apparel and leather. The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell 1.9 percent.
  • Total industrial production was 0.8 percent lower in November than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.7 percentage point in November to 77.3 percent, a rate that is 2.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average.

Manufacturing vs Overall Production

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Manufacturing production is still 2.3% below the peak level reached in December of 2007. (Index levels 108.59 vs 106.09)

This production and the associated jobs simply are not coming back.

Looking Ahead

The current rebound is artificial, but so is the strike that preceded it. Looking ahead, Boeing is going to have a significant impact in the first quarter.

Thousands of jobs and possibly as much as 1/3 of a point of GDP as Boeing Will Suspend 737 Max Production in January.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (9)
No. 1-4
Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Nothing to see here but more slow but steady growth. Most new vehicles are of such below average quality that service is a bigger component of GM and other car companies. Even the Japanese car companies have poorer relative quality compared to previous generations. Korea now produces the highest average quality vehicles outside of the luxury segment.

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

yeah yeah, 'pundits' have been calling the final economic demise for years now, making fools like me sticking with 50% cash, missing out on loads of(virtual) profits in the meantime.....Common sense is all but gone in our insane algorithm and CB's controlled make believe world, for all I know the DOW and other Ponzi scams will double in no time, there' s no fckn alternative when you come to think of it, so let ,s keep on believing in virtual economic miracles......Oh yeah, GOLD and silver and platinum, ....I DO own some kilos of the 'divine' anachronistic stuff ....but just ask youngsters whether they give up their internet connection for a lump of the yellow metal.....Guess what , this is 2020, not 1020, when (not if) everything falls apart one day even gold won t safe our asses, of that I am sure !

Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland

I'm actually curious how much money this cock-up from Boeing has cost them AND how significant that misstep was for the US economy.

Realist
Realist

I agree with both Casual and Brussels. Slow growth will continue. Stay diversified in your assets and investments. Do not put all your eggs in the gold basket (for myself, gold and other pm is never more than 5%).


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