Industrial Production Declines Most in 101 Years

Mish

On the heels of miserable retail sales numbers comes the worst ever industrial production numbers.

The Fed's Industrial Production report provides another grim look at the Covid-19 wrecked economy.

Total industrial production fell 11.2 percent in April for its largest monthly drop in the 101-year history of the index, as the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic led many factories to slow or suspend operations throughout the month.

Manufacturing output dropped 13.7 percent, its largest decline on record, as all major industries posted decreases. The output of motor vehicles and parts fell more than 70 percent; production elsewhere in manufacturing dropped 10.3 percent.

The indexes for utilities and mining decreased 0.9 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively. At 92.6 percent of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production was 15.0 percent lower in April than it was a year earlier.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 8.3 percentage points to 64.9 percent in April, a rate that is 14.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average and 1.8 percentage points below its all-time (since 1967) low set in 2009.

No V-Shaped Recovery

As noted earlier today Retail Sales Plunge Way More Than Expected

Despite talk from hopers, even the fed understands there will not be a V-Shaped recovery.

Instead they are promoting a helicopter drop of money. For details, please see Panic Sets In: Fed Promotes More Free Money

Mish

Comments (47)
No. 1-14
Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Industrially produced fraud and corruption is at an all-time high.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

How could these results possibly have not been expected with people under orders to not travel, not go to work, stay home.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

tis but a flesh wound

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

"Instead they are promoting a helicopter drop of money."

...

The House plan provides $$s to extend the $600 a WEEK in added federal benefits to states' thru January 2021 (currently set to expire July 31st). Some on UE will be getting in excess of $40K to sit at home. Good luck to any business who employs low wage workers to get them back to work. Bravo.

JanNL
JanNL

See the Bank of America reporting. The consumer is not to be counted out apparently. Helicopter money works...

numike
numike

162 benefits of coronavirus https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5u5Het5Lkcb2nSWJp/162-benefits-of-coronavirus

162 benefits of coronavirus - LessWrong 2.0
162 benefits of coronavirus - LessWrong 2.0

[More added: now 182] WHILE THE HUGE harms of coronavirus are well-known – death, illness, lockdowns, unemployment, recession, etc. – less attention has understandably been paid to the benefits. Even clouds this dark have silver linings. Crises produce opportunities, innovation, and long-overdue reforms. 2020 will contain an extra year’s worth of mortality – but also a decade’s worth of progress, a leap into the future. This post lists many benefits that could arise, so readers can consider how to maximize them, not just minimize harms. They cover a wide range of consequences. For example, lockdown has made many people (even drug gangsters) reassess their lives. Working from home has suddenly become normal, with less commuting, less cost, and more time for leisure and sleep. So people may move from cities to cheaper, more pleasant areas, or indeed countries. Above all, coronavirus is a wake-up call - it could have been far worse. Better preparation for the next pandemic will reduce existential risk, potentially saving billions, or even trillions, of future lives. EXPERIMENT & EVOLVE Lockdowns have created an experiment, making people and organisations re-think how - and why - they do things. Some activities become impossible and are abandoned, e.g. travel. For others, alternatives are tried, e.g. video calls for meetings and doctor’s appointments; or innovations, such as businesses sharing employees. This experimentation will continue well beyond lockdown, as the new reality emerges. Many of these changes will turn out to be improvements, and will stick. Others, e.g. government-funded furloughing and virtual horse races, are temporary fixes which will go - as will changes that didn’t work. And things that were dropped as unnecessary, e.g. pointless meetings and regulations, will stay dropped. All of this involves prioritizing: deciding what outcomes matter, and which solutions now work best. Many things will modernize, simplify, and become more efficient. Cos

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

And our resident stable genius says “if we didn’t do any testing we would have very few cases”. We have zero hope of the US successfully managing this COVID outbreak with a leader who is sadly and woefully out of touch with reality.

Michael Oxlong
Michael Oxlong

We have not been able to develop a vaccine for a single coronavirus. So the probability of a vaccine being developed for Covid-19 in the next year or two is small. Isn't herd immunity our only option?

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

A freeze on rent / debt repayment for everyone would be better than printing more money because everyone is effected more equally.

BrainDamagedBiden
BrainDamagedBiden

Are we still to believe it's Covid's faulty and not the government's reaction to Covid? I haven't missed a day of work since this all began. With a few common sense precautions, like: watch what you touch and keep a distance from your coworkers, the chances of catching it are slim. How many cold seasons have you went through without catching a cold. Yet the common cold is more contagious than Covid.

BrainDamagedBiden
BrainDamagedBiden

Unfortunately the response to this virus has become politicized. The Dims see it as a way to unseat Trump. Trump is reacting the same way he did to the Russiagate farce: trying to beat the Dims at their own stupidity.

Did I mention, gee this lady's hair smells terrific!

MATHGAME
MATHGAME

I guess we can start playing "battling sources" ...

From a well known source article on R0

Values of R0 of well-known infectious diseases

Disease Transmission R0

Measles Aerosol 12–18
Chickenpox (varicella) Aerosol 10–12
Mumps Respiratory droplets 10–12
Polio Fecal–oral route 5–7
Rubella Respiratory droplets 5–7
Pertussis Respiratory droplets 5.5

COVID-19 Respiratory droplets 3.8–8.9 (a wider range than my original 5-6)

Smallpox Respiratory droplets 3.5–6
HIV/AIDS Body fluids 2–5
SARS Respiratory droplets 3.1–4.2

Common cold Respiratory droplets 2–3

Diphtheria Saliva 1.7–4.3
Influenza (1918 pandemic strain) Respiratory droplets 1.4–2.8
Ebola (2014 Ebola outbreak) Body fluids 1.5–1.9
Influenza (2009 pandemic strain) Respiratory droplets 1.4–1.6
Influenza (seasonal strains) Respiratory droplets 0.9–2.1
MERS Respiratory droplets 0.3–0.8

And I can assure you that I need no schooling in Math ... but your understandably feeble attempt at pretending you could actually "school" me is somewhat appreciated.

MATHGAME
MATHGAME

Yes, I can see that your chart places Rhinovirus at R0 = 6 ... Although it now looks like your post disappeared, as did my initial post with the R0 values ... maybe violated some link/site mention rule?

It also specifies particular "points" / average values for each disease which is somewhat disingenuous since R0 values are always estimates and should be represented by RANGES. But we can go with an average ...

The bigger problem is it has no data point for SARS-COV-2 WHICH IS NOT SARS which is understandable since that chart was apparently produced by someone writing the article in 2014.

And BTW, my original R0 range for COVID-19 was taken from the CDC site where an article states it was calculated from early data to be ~5.7.

You might want to check out this CDC article ... https : // wwwnc . cdc . gov /eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

I gather from your list of stats that you feel that almost certainly causing a Depression was the appropriate response to this pandemic?


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