In Search of Certainty Amid Uncertainty Nonsense


Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan wants to pause hikes until "uncertainties" settle down.

In a Bloomberg interview today, Kaplan cited uncertainties and wants a pause in interest-rate hikes.

"We shouldn't be taking any further action until some of these uncertainties resolve themselves," said Kaplan.

He also stated that he wasn't mulling an interest-rate cut but he is open to slowing down the pace of the shrinking of the central bank's balance sheet.

Uncertainty Nonsense

What a joke. The way these charlatans phrase these things is always in the context that certainty is a "good thing".

What if the uncertainties give way to a 100% proven recession?

The Bernanke- and Yellen-Fed both delayed hikes too long hoping for "certainty". They did not want to kill a recovery.

What they got is a 100% certified bubble that is now imploding.That's at least as certain as the certainty they seek.

Fed a "Beacon of Certainty"

What a hoot. Back in November, a JP Morgan strategist Samantha Azzarello called the Fed a "beacon of certainty" compared to markets and politics.

Gold Needs Certainty

The Srap Metal Register proclaims Gold needs certainty from fed to accelerate higher.

Apple Uncertainty

Also note that Apple Cites "Mounting Uncertainty"

Since apple wants certainty, I can help.

Apple Certainty

  1. Apple sells phones, a commodity.
  2. The competition sells phones that are arguably as good, for less money.
  3. At some point, consumers will no longer pay for a name.
  4. At some point, it is inevitable consumers will decide new features and upgrades are not worth the price. The same thing happened with computers.

It is uncertain when points 3 and 4 will happen, but it looks like it has started.

Looking for certainty?

I can help. It is 100% certain that portions of the yield curve are inverted.

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The yield curve is flashing recession warnings. That is certain.

I believe recession hits in 2019. But that's uncertain.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (15)
No. 1-8

There, now,,,I knew it,,,,


nothing is certain but death and taxes.


Rest assuredeverybody: Jerome Powell November 28, 2018: Fed Chairman Powell now sees current interest rate level 'just below' neutral


There's a toddler in the whitehouse... things aren't going to settle down until it's removed.


The Fed is changing two variables at once by reducing its balance sheet and increasing rates. Maybe the reason the market is declining is that the Fed is selling equities which they bought in 2011.


I'm in favor of the fed continuing to tighten. It's doing exactly what it should be doing. Deflating the bubbles. Better a slow deflation now than a full blown pop in the future. A 20% correction in the DOW causing panic is reason enough to keep tightening.


Isn't the reason we support the wealthy and entrepreneurs because they are willing to take enormous risks with their own capital regardless of "certainty"? I mean, if everything is certain, can't every schlub make money in a no risk environment?

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