If You Need to Be Somewhere, Get There Before You Can't

Mish

The closures of restaurants, bars, and gatherings is picking up steam. If you absolutely have to be someplace, go now.

Only Essential Travel in the EU

As noted by Business Insider, the European Union will restrict all nonessential travel into the region for at least 30 days, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Monday. Only essential travel will be allowed for at least a month once the plan is approved by European leaders.

Total Lockdown in France

The Guardian Live Update has these items of note.

France: France will close its borders, in coordination with other EU nations. Beginning on Tuesday, people will only be allowed to leave home for strictly necessary reasons including to go shopping – while keeping a distance of one metre from anyone else – to get medical help and for work if it could not be done from home. Individual sporting activity will be allowed, but no collective sports. French President Emmanuel Macron said the reinforced measures will be imposed for at least 15 days.

G20: An extraordinary G20 summit will be convened to discuss the pandemic, according to a statement from the office of the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, which says the decision was made during a call with the Saudi crown prince. [Will they do this by video conference or all all these people going to gather in one place?]

UK: Prime minister Boris Johnson unveiled a series of stringent new restrictions, including a 14-day isolation for all households with symptoms, a warning against “non-essential” contact, and an end to all mass gatherings.

Germany: Germany has closed places of worship, bars, restaurants, museums and cinemas. Announcing the plan, Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “The more individuals stick to these rules, the quicker we will get through this phase.”

Canada: Prime minister, Justin Trudeau, says he will close his country’s border to foreigners. Only four Canadian airports will be allowed to accept international flights, he said. The closure will not apply to commerce or trade, Trudeau said.

France Elections Postponed

US Expands Travel Ban from UK and Ireland

New Jersey Shutdown

D.C. Shutdown

Here's the Scary One - San Francisco Lockdown

The City will legally prohibit residents from leaving their homes except to meet basic needs including visiting the doctor, or buying groceries or medicine, until at least April 7, Mayor London Breed announced Monday.

Leave Now if You Have To Be Somewhere!

  1. San Francisco residents may not leave their homes except to meet basic needs including visiting the doctor, or buying groceries or medicine, until at least April 7.
  2. More cities will follow. Trump may shut down domestic travel.
  3. If you absolutely have to get somewhere, go now. There may not be a flight tomorrow.
  4. If you get where you need to be, then be prepared to stay. You might not be able to easily leave.

I do not expect military enforcement as happened in Italy, but as noted in Coronavirus Week in Review: Top 10 Things That Happened last week, New York City will Establish a “Containment Area” Using the National Guard.​

Importantly, domestic travel may be shut down at any time.

If you are on the West Coast and absolutely have to get to the East Coast, do not rely on last second air travel to get you there. Then be prepared to stay.

Lost Wages

That is three weeks of lost wages for San Francisco workers unless businesses pick it up.

Business won't unless forced, and if forced many will go under.

Fed Fires All Its Bullets in a Single Shot

In and emergency meeting on Sunday, I commented the Fed Fires All Its Bullets in a Single Shot

QE is not going to fix a crash in demand. The Fed can buy assets but so what?

It cannot give money away to individuals or businesses compensate for lost wages.

I cannot possibly emphasize enough how enormously deflationary this setup is.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (101)
No. 1-36
RayLopez
RayLopez

@MishTalk - care to place bets that the November elections be temporarily suspended? It's not in the constitution, and in fact, say some internet wags, this would favor the Democratic party! See internet screen scape below*.

In Greece you need a police permit to go to work, on the pain of a 5k or so Euro fine, and no more than 4 people allowed into stores at any one time. Luckily I'm at a self-sufficient farm here, and it's rather nice, with some friends. - RL

*Jeremy March 16, 2020 at 11:13 am The U.S. Constitution makes it very clear: on January 20th, at noon, if there hasn't been an election and nobody has voted, Nancy Pelosi becomes President of the United States. Ignacio March 16, 2020 at 11:57 am But, if there had been no elections, Nancy's term will also have expired. Then, wouldn't the president be the President pro tempore of the Senate?

Ted R
Ted R

I would call it 'complete'deflation. Not much left to do but ride it out and hope you can keep your doors open if you are a small or even medium size business. Best of luck to everyone in business.

Greggg
Greggg

Wouldn't it have been easier to quarantine all the old f**kers like us? Young healthy people can withstand the virus and maybe develop an immunity. How long can small businesses close down before they fail?

klausmkl
klausmkl

Now those that saved for a rainy day will ride out the storm, for the rainy day is here. Now those that did not, get the big nothing sandwich.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Everything will soon sell for "the cash price".

That means, "much lower than now."

bradw2k
bradw2k

Told my team this morning to take a couple of hours off to go buy whatever they still need to get. Went myself (forgot that not having extra cat litter could become a real problem, ha), and the supermarket was fine, though the normal looks of boredom have been replaced with looks of concern. ... But that announcement out of SF, holy wow that is going to take the panic buying up a couple notches.

klausmkl
klausmkl

I am dog watching. The dog is a management problem, digging holes and whining , oh the misery

Herkie
Herkie

Notice how nobody ever really defines ESSENTIAL? I was one of the people that did not hoard, now if I want to get groceries I have to drive all over the county, shortened hours, empty shelves, gouging, sure that last store had a $65 ham but I can't use that, it would take me two weeks to eat that. And I did see chicken feet as well as trotters at one store, but I am not eating chicken feet no matter what they say.

Jojo
Jojo

I live south of SF, but I will not follow any stay-at-home proclamations. Civil liberties do not get suspended other than maybe under martial law.

Also see:
The Coronavirus vs. Civil Liberties
You don’t lose your rights amid a pandemic.
By Dahlia Lithwick
March 16, 2020

Jojo
Jojo

Are buying lottery tickets considered an essential trip? I don't want to miss a winning opportunity!

MSCowboy
MSCowboy

Mish, a few trillion dollars have been injected into repo markets lately by the Fed, and has been for several months now; yet, it’s never enough. Could you, please, explain this? Where is this money landing? Why is it not ever enough? And what will fix it! TIA.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Mish - no one cares about the deflation right now. No system was prepared for this level of community spread with only 15% of those needing ICU beds actually getting them.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"Mish - no one cares about the deflation right now."

Causal Observer that was a damn foolish thing to say. Say to see you are clueless about deflation even after all these years.

The fact is, nearly everyone cares. It is about lost wages, it is about the collapse in the stock market, it is about pension underfunding, it is about lost jobs, it is about businesses going underwater.

Please tell me who precisely does not care about any of those things since allegedly "no one cares"

Zardoz
Zardoz

This democrat hoax is getting out of hand. Can't y'all see what a nothing burger this all is? They've even got trump spreading deep state panic. There can be only one explanation: trump is hillary in a fat suit.

AWC
AWC

Hunker down folks. The cavalry ain’t comin’ to the rescue. Gonna need to depend on,,,,wait for it,,,,,,,Self Reliance. What a quaint concept....

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

On a lighter note: The picture at the top of this posting.

Golly, it's impossible to un-see that picture as a screen cap from a poorly cast, low budget Hallmark special "movie".

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Must have max-ed out my "Likes". They suddenly went completely unresponsive an hour or two ago on any Mish Talk page. Sigh.

numike
numike

just a little side note here: It will not cure/prevent the virus but I would stash some penicillin. You can still buy amoxicillin on Ebay (for fish a aquariums (wink wink)) legally from the USA It should be an item in your stash/arsenal Search for Fish Mox Forte OR go here: https://fishmoxfishflex.com/collections/amoxicillin-fish-antibiotics

QE2Infinity
QE2Infinity

How can taking a walk outside be a bad thing? Sunshine and vitamin D benefit your immune system. Idiot politicians are stepping over each other to see who can be more totalitarian.

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

Hi Mish. Do you see 1666 on the S&P ?

dingbat
dingbat

@Mish or anyone else, for that matter... You often say that deflation isn't about prices, it's about debt that cannot and will not be paid back. Here, you've said that this is very deflationary, which I assume is because people in this situation won't be able to pay off their debts. Makes sense. But how is deflation not about prices? Can we have deflation without falling prices?

Wouldn't people/companies not being able to pay/pay off their debts cause falling prices (deflation, as I understand it)? A blog post describing in more detail what you're referring to would be useful to me, and probably others, as well.

RonJ
RonJ

Quickly, everyone is getting "xenophobia", shutting down borders, shutting down regions, cities, shutting down pubs and bars.

Haxo Angmark
Haxo Angmark

TY, Corona-chan,

for collapsing the great debtPonzi'conomy before the walls got even steeper.

ReksBG
ReksBG

I guess the eco activist Greta is getting what she wished for - scrapping fossil fuels use :) That's why people say "be careful what you wish for" :)

Realist
Realist

One thing that often impresses me about Americans is their patriotism. They love their flag and their country, and many are willing to sacrifice for their country. Many sign up for military service and make the ultimate sacrifice.

When a hurricane or flood happens, you often see Americans sacrificing to help each other. Bravo! Well done.

America is finally understanding that they are currently at war with the Corona Virus, after being misled by their president for a month. And now they are being asked to sacrifice yet again. However, this time, they are being asked to “stay home”, “avoid large groups”, and “help each other”. This could be one of the easiest and least dangerous sacrifices to make. I know that many will suffer financial hardship. But if you all work together, you will get through this faster.

Hopefully, all countries will do the same thing and the world will reduce the impact of this virus.

Good luck.

Sunriver
Sunriver

Without FED intervention over the last week, what would the 10 year treasury bond yield be? If a soveirgn countries bonds are a reflection of the ability of that nation to pay back its debt obligations, what would Mr Market say the 10 year treasury yield should be? North of 10%? We'll never know. The market is drunk on negative real interest rates so that indebted zombie nations like the United States can service their forever unpayable principle debt. Under Moneterism, it is more likely to have a -10% ten year yield than a 10% ten year yield going forward. God help us all and especially our children.

QE2Infinity
QE2Infinity

Anatomy of a crash: according to Didier Sornette in his book "Why stock markets crash" crashes exhibit log periodic behavior where oscillations become larger and closer together. I was reminded of this after looking at the chart in the following,

UrbanDigs
UrbanDigs

That money is being used to backstop and add liquidity to the short term repo and financing markets. It's a loan, not QE. QE is happening in addition. The liquidity backstop was done to mitigate the risk of a credit event in the short term financing credit markets. Look at as a plumbing blockage, and the Fed just drain-o'd it to prevent a backup. It took the chances of a major credit event from high to low. That's it. That's all it did. Get the high risk off the table. Now, credit events may still happen and liquidation of large institutions are already causing dislocations, evidence by recent gold and treasury moves during last few big selloffs

MSCowboy
MSCowboy

Thanks, Urban.

Brother
Brother

If anyone is actually paying attention that this is the way Government responses to a virus. God forbid they take over all our healthcare systems. Judging from the lines at stores on TV I have never scene so many sheeple. The freeways in So-cal are empty which is really bizarre.

Brother
Brother

If anyone is actually paying attention that this is the way Government responses to a virus. God forbid they take over all our healthcare systems. Judging from the lines at stores on TV I have never scene so many sheeple.

RedQueenRace
RedQueenRace

It would seem they are shit out of luck.

Kender
Kender

So how does this square with the de-population scheme people talk about? If they wanted to depopulate, why try to keep us healthy? Why tell us at all? Just let disease do it's work and the strong survive and the weak do not. (mind you, these are not my theories or beliefs rather I extrapolate what may happen based on patterns in the past.) The Georgia Guidestones even declare/warn that depopulation is preferred, so what gives? Also, although I am not on facebook, I have friends who are and they tell me that over the 1 billion ppl on it, no one has mentioned having the virus nor do they know anyone who has it. I thought that was very odd.

jeco
jeco

This "deficits don't matter" theme is going to destroy our currency, central bank maybe lead to national default. This admin was pumping an already (partially) hot economy and now that they need fiscal measures they're really already been spent away. This "What me worry" leader is going to be a hugely reviled historic figure very soon. He put us in a box and can't bullshit his way out.


Global Economics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY