Huge Miss in Industrial Production Output vs Expectations


The recovery in industrial production and manufacturing underperformed economist's expectations.

Much Weaker Than Expected

The Fed's Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report for August did not live up to expectations but the rebound is in its fourth month.


  • Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in August for its fourth consecutive monthly increase. However, even after the recent gains, the index in August was 7.3 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. 
  • Manufacturing output continued to improve in August, rising 1.0 percent, but the gains for most manufacturing industries have gradually slowed since June. 
  • Mining production fell 2.5 percent in August, as Tropical Storm Marco and Hurricane Laura caused sharp but temporary drops in oil and gas extraction and well drilling. 
  • The output of utilities moved down 0.4 percent. At 101.4 percent of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production was 7.7 percent lower in August than it was a year earlier. 
  • Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage point in August to 71.4 percent, a rate that is 8.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 7.3 percentage points above its low in April.

Expectations vs Actuals

Huge Miss in Industrial Production Recovery Expectations

The Econoday consensus estimates were a big miss across the board as the rise in IP has dramatically slowed.

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Comments (13)
No. 1-5

Apple having their big event today and it is a giant snooze fest. Nothing compelling to go out and buy: iwatch, ipad. Same old. Waiting to see new iphone.


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Immaterial. Recession is over, S&P heading to 3600.

No longer seeing a recession, fund managers are beginning to shift into industrials and value stocks, Bank of America survey finds
Last Updated: Sept. 15, 2020 at 11:34 a.m. ET