How Well is the US Doing on Trump's Deal With China?

Mish

Trade stats are available through September. China isn't close to honoring its commitments.

PIIE Charts

China Imports by Product Type 2020-09

The PIIE Charts, originally published on May 18, 2020, track China’s monthly purchases of US goods covered by the phase one deal between the United States and China.

  • Through September 2020, China's year-to-date total imports of covered products from the United States were $65.9 billion, compared with a prorated year-to-date target of $124.9 billion. 
  • Over the same period, US exports to China of covered products were $59.1 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $109.0 billion. 
  • Through the first nine months of 2020, China's purchases of all covered products were thus only at 54 percent (US exports) or 53 percent (Chinese imports) of their year-to-date targets.

What an Amazing Deal 

What a deal, and we still have a mountain of tariffs too, hurting all the manufacturers that import goods.

Tax Foundation Tariff Tracker

The Tax Foundation Tariff Tracker has these interesting stats through September.

  • According to the Tax Foundation model, the tariffs imposed so far by the Trump administration would reduce long-run GDP by 0.23 percent ($58.02 billion) and wages by 0.15 percent and eliminate 179,800 full-time equivalent jobs.
  • The tariffs are equivalent to one of the largest tax increases in decades (the 17th largest tax increase as a share of GDP since 1940).
  • The administration’s outstanding threats to impose additional tariffs would, if acted upon, further reduce GDP by 0.24 percent, wages by 0.17 percent, and employment by [another] 184,200 full-time equivalent jobs.

Trade Wars Good and Easy to Win

Balance the Budget

Shortly before his inauguration, Trump told Sean Hannity on Fox News that he would “balance the budget very quickly … over a five-year period. And I don’t know, maybe I could even surprise you.”

Also recall Trump's claim of using tariffs to pay down the national debt.

"..Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 Trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration, while at the same time reducing taxes for our people. At minimum, we will make much better Trade Deals for our country!"

Trump is totally clueless about trade and deficits. 

Trump's Failure

Trump tried to balance the trade deficit with tariffs. It was a fool's mission as explained in Balance of Trade vs Gold Window

Also consider Trump's Unwinnable Trade War: Gold Explains Why

Will Biden Be Better?

For discussion, please see How Will Biden Differ From Trump on Trade and China Policy?

Mish

Comments (42)
No. 1-13
Zardoz
Zardoz

The only thing trump is interested in now is crying about getting beat.

Cichocki
Cichocki

I may have missed some posts so maybe you have already said so but Mish do you think in total we would be worse off now if Clinton had won?

Johnson1
Johnson1

I fully expect my U.S. company to lose market share again once Biden is in office and I will most likely lose my job too. We just cannot compete to the all the unfair trade practices of China. Thank Barrack and thanks again Joe:

"President-Elect Joe Biden announced additional nominations to his cabinet on Monday, including a National Security Adviser who has advocated for supporting China’s “rise” in the past."

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

Is AIG the main insurer for the products/completed operations limits on Three Gorges Dam/Yangtze River risk? Asking for a friend.

Would you reinsure them, Mish?

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

China is in the driving seat, will be top dog, and will go about its merry way whatever happens. Biden or Trump makes no difference in the med-long term.

Doug78
Doug78

It's not how much goods are imported and exported but which goods are imported and exported. You know that but you needed to fill your quota of anti-Trump posts for the day.

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

YES SIR ! Trump is GUILTY ! We dont know of what exactly but we should sue his ass off, bankrupt him, DESTROY him ! ...After all, he DID fuck Stormy Daniels, didn t he ? YES, The Establishment should set an example for once and for all so that future, would be potentates never get a chance again !

adam2345
adam2345

Trade war = reverse GDP hmm. I knew Trump wasn't economic educated..

Sechel
Sechel

Trump pushed managed trade and tarrifs, two things I abhor. He had one legitimate issue , the intellectual property theft which he never solved. Trump's China policy was a disaster. There was only one goal, catering to a domestic political audence

Sechel
Sechel

I'd prefer to see Biden going free-market, embrace TPP etc but I don't see that happening. The country has become protectionist

Rocky Raccoon
Rocky Raccoon

This really shouldn't be a big surprise as this was predicted long ago when the deal was made.

Trump and his sycophants don't talk much about the $27 trillion in debt these days...

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

FYI.....of all Biden’s picks, the China trade negotiator is of the greatest interest to me now. I’m just trying to get up to speed on what’s going one with that.


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