How the Housing Bubble Was Reblown in 20 Cities

Mish

Case-Shiller analysis of 20 metro areas shows where the housing bubble was reblown and where it stalled.

Top 10 Metro Area Changes

Case Shiller 10-City Metro changes 2020-11

Home prices in five of the top 10 metro areas in the country have declined since mid-2000.

Case Shiller 20-City Metro Second Tier 

Case Shiller 20-City Metro Second Tier 2020-11

Case Shiller 20-City Metro Tier II 

Case Shiller 20-City Metro Changes Tier II

In the second tier of top 20 cities, only Phoenix was in the red.

Overall Losers

  1. Las Vegas: -14.38% 
  2. Chicago: -13.67%
  3. Miami: -8.46%
  4. Phoenix: -6.32%
  5. New York: -5.61%
  6. Washington DC: - 2.66%

Overall Winners

  1. Denver: +67.52%
  2. Dallas: +58.44%
  3. Seattle: +43.47%
  4. Portland: +36.03%
  5. Charlotte: +31.16%
  6. Boston: +29.98%
  7. San Francisco: +29.91%
  8. Atlanta: +17.90%
  9. Cleveland: +11.72%
  10. San Diego: +11.60%
  11. Los Angeles: +11.25%
  12. Minneapolis: +8.27%
  13. Detroit: +3.59%
  14. Tampa: +2.22%

Case Shiller Region Descriptions

Case Shiller Region Descriptions

Case Shiller Composite Indexes 

Case Shiller Composite Indexes 2020-11

Case Shiller Composite Changes

Case Shiller Composite Changes 2020-11

In contrast to the cities that peaked at various times, the composites and the national index all peaked in February of 2007. 

At the national level we have exceeded the peak of the prior housing bubble although results vary widely by city.

Hooray?!

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  2. Hello Fed, Low Interest Rates Do Not Promote Growth

Mish

Comments (43)
No. 1-13
EGW
EGW

I don't live near any of these large cities and housing is crazy. Decent houses where I live are only staying on the market for a week at most. Usually, they get bought within a day or two of being put on the market. Even the trashy houses that require serious repairs are selling in under a month.

Sechel
Sechel

People want out of NYC , the one two punch of D'Blasio's eincompetence and the impact of Covid has people rethinking how they live and work

Intelligentyetdiot
Intelligentyetdiot

Its not housing that has be inflated, its your money that has been diluted.

FHBlast
FHBlast

Why does HOUSTON TX not appear on any list??? Last time I checked it was 4th largest in USA!

asteester
asteester

This upsets some of my current notions on real estate trends. Does excite me that Phoenix market might go even higher before the crash!

AnotherJoe
AnotherJoe

@Mish

Is there a graph of median salary vs median housing to asses affordability? I ask because over at calculated risk they keep saying that houses are very affordable (more than the last peak) because the new pricing is in reality lower due to inflation. My contention is that housing is not affordable mortgages are

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

I see Janet Yellen is being talked about for Treasury Secretary.

nzyank
nzyank

Is Case Shiller flawed? Isn't it better to look at home affordability indexes?

ReadyKilowatt
ReadyKilowatt

Rent in Denver is getting to parity with the insane prices in ski towns, so people are moving to towns like Winter Park and Dillon and commuting to Denver. Works OK until the passes close, but it also makes a weekday traffic jam that looks like Sunday afternoon used to look in Idaho Springs. Of course now with telecommuting it makes even more sense. It will change the nature of these small towns, but they've survived worse.

Realist
Realist

Personal real estate continues to increase in price dramatically where I live. The demand has increased as many people are realizing that they no longer have to live in major metro areas in order to work there. They used to be put off by the hassle of commuting, but as more of them are able to work from home now, smaller communities with individual homes on a bit of land are becoming very desirable. The downside is that it continues to get more difficult for first time buyers.

I have been listening to predictions of the housing bubble popping for my entire life. While there have been a few significant corrections over the last 50 years, they only affected the small numbers of people who had to buy or sell during those brief periods of time. For the vast majority of home buyers who simply bought a home and stayed in it, the corrections didn't really matter to them. Once the correction was over, their house ends up being worth more than ever (nominally).

For most people, buying and living in a house for a long time is often best investment they every made. Of course, there are always exceptions.

Call_me_Al
Call_me_Al

Did not expect to see the relative decline in D.C. pricing.
Does this count as a return to fiscal responsibility?

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

I ran across this....and I have to admit to being a Zillow surfer myself....although I’ve done it for years.


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