How Does the Covid Surge Compare to the New York Peak?

Mish

The unfortunate short answer is "not pretty".

Hotspots Everywhere

National Geographic compares the New York Case Rate Peak to What's Happening Now.

  • The U.S. just experienced its worst two-week stretch, with more newly confirmed cases than at any point since its coronavirus outbreak began in early 2020. From June 25 to July 8, 674,750 Americans were diagnosed with coronavirus, and the nation’s tally grew by one million cases over the span of the past month.
  • During its worst two-week period, 74,223 New Yorkers were diagnosed. That’s the equivalent of one in 114 New Yorkers. 
  • 536 counties have case density rates worse than one in 100 people. 294 of them have also had their worst two-week period since June 1.
  • The worst density of all belongs to Lee, Arkansas, where county data indicates that on average one in 17 residents—a total of 545 people—were diagnosed every day during a two-week surge from June 4 to 17. 
  • Jacksonville and Miami, Florida; Los Angeles, California; Nashville, Tennessee; Oklahoma City; Atlanta, Georgia, and their surrounding areas have all just had their worst two weeks.
  • In Houston, where cases have been spiking this month, one in 115 people has caught coronavirus. In Detroit, it’s one in 75. In Boston, it’s one in 39.
  • One in 23 residents in Cass, Indiana, have been diagnosed with coronavirus due to cases at a meatpacking plant. 
  • One in 6 residents in Trousdale, Tennessee, have been diagnosed with coronavirus due to an outbreak at a correctional facility.
  • Overall, one in 2,442 people in the U.S. have died from coronavirus (132,237 total).

TDS Nonsense Yet Again

I was accused of TDS for saying Coronavirus Surge in Oklahoma Linked to Trump Rally.

However, indoors air conditioning and huge numbers of people screaming do not mix. Oklahoma City had its worst two weeks. Cases in Tulsa are the highest ever. 

But no, Trump had nothing to do with it. Anyone who believes that is inflicted with TDS type 2, that Trump is never at fault for anything and can do no wrong. 

Reopening Disaster

In general, states that reopened early or dissed social distancing are the hardest hit. 

More Covid News From Bloomberg

Texas Governor Threatens Lockdown

The Texas Tribune reports Gov. Greg Abbott warns if spread of COVID-19 doesn’t slow, “the next step would have to be a lockdown”

With Texas continuing to break records for new coronavirus deaths and hospitalizations this week, Gov. Greg Abbott reiterated Friday afternoon that things will continue to get worse. And if people keep flouting his new statewide mask mandate, he said, the next step could be another economic lockdown.

“Things will get worse, and let me explain why,” he told KLBK TV in Lubbock. “The deaths that we’re seeing announced today and yesterday — which are now over 100 — those are people who likely contracted COVID-19 in late May. 

“The worst is yet to come as we work our way through that massive increase in people testing positive.”

Houston Hospitals Turn Away Patients

Please note Houston hospitals are increasingly turning away new patients as coronavirus overwhelms emergency rooms.

Houston hospitals have been forced to treat hundreds of COVID-19 patients in their emergency rooms — sometimes for several hours or multiple days — as they scramble to open additional intensive care beds for the wave of seriously ill people streaming through their doors, according to internal numbers shared with NBC News and ProPublica.

At the same time, the region’s 12 busiest hospitals are increasingly telling emergency responders that they cannot safely accept new patients, at a rate nearly three times that of a year ago, according to data reviewed by reporters.

ProPublica and NBC News have previously reported that a public hospital in Houston ran out of a medication to treat COVID-19 patients and that a spike in at-home deaths from cardiac arrest suggests that the death toll from the coronavirus may be higher than official statistics show.

No Blame

  • But hey, let's not blame Trump for holding rallies in Oklahoma and Arizona.
  • Let's also not blame him for encouraging states to reopen quickly.
  • And please do not blame Trump for anything, at any time, anywhere.

Because if you do, you will be instantly accused of having TDS by those who believe Trump is never the blame for anything.

The accusers are afflicted with TDS type 2. It is not curable. Neither is type 1, the belief that Trump is never right about anything. 

Where the Hell is Hannity?

I am wondering where Hannity is hiding. 

Dear Sean Hannity: Who Owes Whom an Apology?

Neither Texas nor Florida got it right. But who gives a damn these days about facts.

Mish

Comments (126)
No. 1-23
PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

While Trump is bad enough the GOP enablers in the senate are a huge second part of the problem - that has become obvious to me now (yeah I know I am a bit slow). What is the term for thinking the gop does nothing right GOPTDS? Count me in.

MiTurn
MiTurn

"Overall, one in 2,442 people in the U.S. have died from coronavirus (132,237 total)."

Is that math correct? There are about 330 million people in the US.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

The covidiots will never accept that this virus is both extremely dangerous AND that Trump shoulders significant responsibility for the failed U S response. As my friend says you can’t fix stupid.

Anda
Anda

Well here is the other side to the argument, and I have no idea who is right. Herd immunity at 20% seems optimistic, I don't know. What seems true for Sweden is that fatalities have decreased drastically in spite of high infection rate, but just too many variables for me to add it up.

Argnne
Argnne

No really debating that the rallies are just a bad idea but also let’s not forget about the massive impact of the protests which are playing out in many US states today. The normalization of the protests in the mainstream media gave a free pass for Oklahoma.

LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird

Ignore for a moment the early failures related to PPE and test availability. The real failure of Trump is not using the bully pulpit to convince people to wear masks and take the virus seriously. Part of that too is failure to acknowledge that deaths are not the only metric of value.

Montana33
Montana33

States are hitting their limits on testing again so we are missing cases and that will cause more spread. Death is not the only negative outcome - people have severe lingering health impacts - we don’t yet know how many. I had to go somewhere yesterday and there were many people with flimsy masks placed below their nose in an indoor space. Are these people resigned to getting it? I have friends who have parties with family and friends indoors with no masks. I just don’t understand?

Quatloo
Quatloo

To me, tracking number of cases is less useful than tracking number of hospitalizations or deaths, though these are certainly lagging indicators. The problem with analysis based on number of hospitalizations is the lack of uniformity in how this data is collected and reported across the nation and the world.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

"Trump is never at fault for anything and can do no wrong."

....

I have a family member who thinks DJT AWESOME!!!!!

Facts are useless ... EVERYTHING a conspiracy to make him look bad.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

Most of Trump’s supporters are not college educated. Say no more.

JCPatriot
JCPatriot

Thanks, Anda, for the article with actual useful data. Herd immunity seems key to why the protests in New York don't cause a spike where the virus first arrived in the US, but the rallies and opening in the southern states can increase the number of cases, where herd immunity has presumably not yet been achieved. Mish's map actually reinforces this, although I think he was really trying to imply that the southern states were wrong/stupid. Since sheltering at home has also been shown to result in increasing numbers of cases in NY, the argument that shutdowns are the answer is mixed at best, since on one side it may slow the spread, but on the other it will also slow the reaching of sufficient herd immunity. In the end, it seems as if Farr was right, and that sheltering the vulnerable instead of everyone else would have been the more prudent approach. If Trump is at fault, it's because he was stupid enough to listen to the self-proclaimed experts who now appear to be wrong far more often than they were right.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

@Mish, I do not recall many people saying "Trump had nothing to do with it." President Trump has been on the wrong side for much of this. To be fair, I think one also must acknowledge that many of the pandemic decisions are made at state and local levels. This has been a spectacular failure of US government on many levels.

For example, food production slated for commercial and institutional consumption was thrown away when the lockdowns happened. When governments ordered lockdowns, they had an obligation to step in to buy that production and distribute it through alternate channels. It is not as if there were fewer mouths to feed. Meanwhile, there have been record long lines of people waiting for food assistance from volunteer organizations. US governments could not handle even that simple logistics challenge. Meanwhile, the Biden campaign wants us to believe that government will correctly manage an even larger slice of everyone's lives in the future? The claim is ridiculous.

I would appreciate if you can shed some light on what good option is available for our leadership selection, because I do not see any. The best I can come up with is that the legislative and executive branches need to be kept divided between the parties so they cannot easily agree on how to further skin the citizenry.

Realist
Realist

Which comes first: the cart or the horse?

So many here are worried that the US economy will do poorly if it does not fully re-open. That is obviously a true statement.

What is also obvious, is that re-opening without getting the pandemic under better control, will only lead to more lock downs. Witness what is currently happening in Texas, Florida, etc.

Many countries are safely re-opening their economies now. BECAUSE they have got the virus under control. To prevent a new surge in virus cases they are continuing to test and trace, mandate masks in many situations, social distance, clean and sanitize, avoid large crowds.

The lesson to be learned here is that you must first get the virus under control, so that you can then safely re-open. Then you must continue to be vigilant for as long as necessary, until the population can be vaccinated.

If you look at the G7 countries, they all were hurt by the pandemic, both economically, and in human costs. It would seem that the countries that have responded best to the pandemic will have the strongest economic recoveries.

With that in mind, let’s look at how well the G7 countries are currently managing the pandemic:

Yesterday numbers - New cases:new deaths

Japan 348:1

Germany 390:5

France 658:25

Italy 276:12

UK 512:48

Canada 321:10

USA 71,787:849

Clearly, the US does not have the virus under control. The lack of federal leadership has been a complete and total failure.

The US economy will continue to sputter until the virus is under control or until a vaccine is available in a year or so. No amount of hoping, wishing, or lying is going to change that fact.

Ted R
Ted R

Does anybody remember Legionnaires Disease?

RonJ
RonJ

Today on Zero Hedge: 'Whitney: Looks Like Sweden Was Right After All'

"Presently, Sweden is very close to reaching herd immunity which is a condition in which the majority have developed antibodies that will help to fend-off similar sars-covid infections in the future."

The shutdowns have suppressed the attainment of herd immunity in the U.S. and lead to s surge in cases when reopening the economy, which was predicted well in advance by experts.

The shutdowns also resulted in a back lash, even in leftist ruled California, which was also predicted by experts. Governor Newsom couldn't keep the state locked down, because people were tired of being cooped up.

danisssy
danisssy

Mish,

It was I who accused you of TDS yesterday. I was hoping you would explain how you reached your conclusion re: Trump rally and the spike. I looked at the data and the ramp in cases occurred before the Trump rally, and then levelled off after the rally. Maybe you are seeing things differently to me, but I suspect you just have not even looked at the data.

PS - I am a long time reader and really like your blog. But increasingly you have you been criticizing Trump without providing supporting evidence which is why I bring up TDS. And if anyone calls you out on that then your only response is to call them idiots who think 'Trump can do no wrong'. On the contrary, many of your other articles about Trump - e.g. on the folly of his trade war - I think are spot on. So I don't wish to sound too negative, I think you do a good job in general.

obstruksion
obstruksion

Did I miss the article where Mish apologized for voting for trump?

JCPatriot
JCPatriot

Obesity is well-known to be a major risk factor for one's susceptibility to the virus, and although the US has an absurd level of obesity in it's population, not one person in this discussion has mentioned that factor in their analysis of our country's infection numbers. Despite this extra risk, our morbidity and mortality from the virus are falling even though the number of cases are rising. Since the medical community can't seem to agree on the best treatments or rationale to deal with this pandemic, there must be something else going on. Could it be herd immunity, or the fact that pathogens tend to mutate into less virulent strains in order to prolong their own survival? Nah, it's far easier to blame the bogey man, this time the one with goofy orange hair.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Population density is the measure by which success should be measured. Cou tries in the top left with low population densities but high rates of death should not be celebrated as successes.

lensman888
lensman888

I can assure you that Canadians are not coming to the US for vacation. The border has been closed to non essential travel for months and will stay that way until September, I believe.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

Haven’t you heard. This Kung Flu is nothing more than a hoax. I have that on good authority.


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