Houston Will Exceed ICU Capacity by Tomorrow

Mish

Texas is expected to exceed ICU hospital bed capacity in early July. In Houston, ICU beds are projected to run out tomorrow in some hospitals.

Harris County - Houston

Texas Medical Center 97% Occupied 

At the Texas Medical Center in Houston, 97 percent of ICU Beds are Occupied.

As the number of patients hospitalized with the coronavirus has reached record highs 12 days in a row, there are warning signs that Houston hospitals are nearing a tipping point.

At the Texas Medical Center in Houston, 97 percent of ICU beds were occupied on Tuesday. Twenty-seven percent of those ICU patients have COVID-19.

Planned vs Unplanned

The Naysayers will be quick to comment that "only" 27% of the bed usage is due to Covid-19. 

But Covid is precisely the problem. Last year 0% of the bed usage was due to Covid-19.

Not Just the Texas Medical Center

Hospital officials in other parts of Houston are also reporting that intensive care units — for seriously ill patients, like those on ventilators — are near or over capacity. Local leaders have warned that hospitals could get overwhelmed if the number of infections keeps climbing.

Texas Children's Hospital said this week it is admitting adult transfer patients, with and without the virus, to help other facilities manage their capacity. 

Tipping Point - Texas Eyes Stadiums for Emergency Use

We appear to be nearing the tipping point,” Dr. Marc Boom, head of the Houston Methodist hospital system, wrote in an email to employees Friday. “Should the number of new cases grow too rapidly, it will eventually challenge our ability to treat both COVID-19 and non-COVID 19 patients."

Elsewhere, counties like Travis and Harris, which includes Houston, have eyed local convention centers or stadiums as temporary hospital overflow facilities — reviving plans mapped out early in the pandemic that were largely abandoned due to lack of need at the time.

Governor's Response 

The governor struck a newly urgent tone Monday in a televised press conference to say COVID-19 was “spreading at an unacceptable rate” and that multiple metrics to gauge the virus’ spread and severity had significantly increased. Epidemiologists have attributed upticks in infections and hospitalizations to changes in behavior, including lax mask use and less social distancing.

Trump Blames "Too Much Testing"

Trump's amazing response is to not only blame too much testing but act to limit testing by cutting funds. 

Texas Case Projections - With and Without Masks

Texas Case Projections - With and Without Masks 2020-06-24

Charts from Worldometers.

Texas Death Projections - With and Without Masks

Texas Death Projections - With and Without Masks 2020-06-24

Typical Denier Reactions

Typical Denier Responses

My Response to the Deniers

  1. No doubt the initial models were overstated, but the denier claims this was much ado about nothing were even worse.
  2. The initial model projections were based on doing nothing. The deniers never took that into account.
  3. When states took aggressive that undoubtedly halted the curves, the deniers claimed this would have happened anyway.
  4. The deniers went on to project that warmer weather would finish the whole thing off in May, then June, and now? 
  5. Now the deniers blame the models instead of their silly this will all go away if we do nothing projections.

Point 5 is particularly amusing in light McCarthy's moan about forecasting 3 months out.

Houston may run out of beds tomorrow and is forced to eye stadiums to house patients.

Fake News of the Day

In the fake news of the day, which no doubt had his delusional followers cheering, Trump made the claim: States Testing Too Much

Trump's remedy is to halt test funding for locations in five states.

Texas was especially hard hit. See the above link for details.

The EU Lifts Its Travel Ban But Not For the US

Meanwhile The EU Lifts Its Travel Ban But Not For the US.

Trump's Campaign Visit to Arizona Church is Irresponsible at Best

Finally, Trump's Campaign Visit to Arizona Church is Irresponsible at Best

Trump's response has been amazingly wrong nearly every step of the way.

But putting his reelection campaign ahead of national health concerns and cancelling test funding goes far beyond "irresponsible".

Mish

Comments (72)
No. 1-23
Zardoz
Zardoz

This will be a lesson in stupidity and hubris for the ages.

njbr
njbr

NewUlm
NewUlm

Just like the other hotspots, cases will rise for 90ish days then bend downwards (using Jun 1st)... just as folks completely freak out. The graph above will not be accurate through October, it will bend in September.

ICUs are near worthless, we know 88% of folks on vents die. I would like to see the double-blind clinical study that shows 12% is better than nothing at all - but that won't happen for obvious reasons. Time for a sanitarium model, just like we used polio - why don't we learn from history???

PS - I am not a "denier", I am all for facemasks, but the trends are observable across basically all hotspots and ventilator data is well published.

Realist
Realist

Trump only cares about himself. He doesn’t care how many Americans die, as a result of his lack of leadership. Many other countries have done a great job of controlling the virus and opening their economies. Trump is moving in the opposite direction.

Worst President ever.

Webej
Webej

[1] ICU beds will not run out. Why not? Because in every country so far they have showed an amazing ability to increase the numbers of ICU beds when needed. 97% utilization in one hospital is what is called cherry picking -- it's not the whole picture.

[2] Ventilators. Why do we need them? You're a goner if they put you on one. Invasive ventilation means the doctors are still following WHO protocol and treating for ARDS when we already know this is primarily a thrombotic disease and that it is the inflammation that kills. That would mean the doctors are still killing people unnecessarily because they're sticking with protocol instead of trying things that have proved effective.

[3] There is absolutely no scientific evidence that the shape of the curve correlates with the various kinds and degrees of measures introduced by the public health authorities. In virtually all cases, the curve started to bend BEFORE the measures could have any effect (5 days incubation, 7 days disease progress = 12 days on average).

[4] I would like Mish to explain why the Imperial College study (non-peer reviewed, and afterwards shown to be shitty Fortran software) and the IHME have constantly been the pre-eminent sources of modeling, despite the fact that there are thousands of other institutions engaged in similar efforts. IHME & Imperial College & the WHO are all funded by Gates. How can this be a coincidence?

tokidoki
tokidoki

Dow 700K ?

numike
numike

“Mother Nature and COVID-19 are in the process of electing the next President.”
― Steven Magee

njbr
njbr

...cases will rise for 90ish days then bend downwards (using Jun 1st)...

What is this? Numerology? No, the downward bend comes after stringent enforcement happens. Look at Arizona--where's the downward bend
after 90 days?

...the curve started to bend BEFORE the measures could have any effect...

Really? The reality is that in most places, people instituted distancing and hand-washing and masks BEFORE the shutdowns because they could see it coming. What you have now is people being extremely stupid in the rising states.

Sechel
Sechel

If Trump thought re-opening would be good for re-election he didn't think much about images of over-flowing hospitals in Texas. We're still a few months over four months away from the election but if the trajectory continues it will not bode well.

Sechel
Sechel

Texas opened up early and moved very quickly on movie theaters and restaurants. We're seeing the result

ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant

We knew very little about Covid-19 in February. Here in Colorado, we closed all the ski areas because the counties they were in were spiking. We know now it wasn't the ski areas or the tennis courts that were the problem. It was the bars the skiers went to after a day on the slopes.

awc13
awc13

"The initial model projections were based on doing nothing. The deniers never took that into account."

right but subsequent projections did and they were still way off

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

tRump is the most stable genius of the mankind! The king Donald can reduce the number of new cases to 0 , by stopping all tests.

Montana33
Montana33

I wonder if Trump wants to lose. He talks every day about a coming corrupt election - and most States are Republican run so that’s insane! He wants to lose the election and then start his own lifestyle channel. I think Trump plans to steal all the Fox News viewers. I guarantee his hotel empire is destroyed - so he has to find his next job and President doesn’t pay well. His hotels were flailing before the virus. He has the most despised brand in the world but the media business is in his wheelhouse.

TeleAllende
TeleAllende

TeleAllende
TeleAllende

Hospitalization rates per 100k of different age groups.
2020/06/13 week:
[0.7+0.2+2.4+4.1+6.2] = 13.6 people hospitalized
per 100k.
Total COVID-NET network is 32 million.
Therefore total new weekly hospitalizations
within the COVID-NET network of 32 million (10% of US population) is:
= 32 million * 13.6 / 100k = 4352 people per 32 million population.

Multiply by 10 for the full US population of 100% or 300million = 43000 hospitalizations for the week of 06/13/2020.

TeleAllende
TeleAllende

United States hit 2million Covid 19 cases on Jun 10th, 2020.
Today it is 2020/06/24 (2 weeks or 14 days later) and we're at 2380000
An increase of 380k cases in 2 weeks, or 190k per week.
Of these 190k new cases per week ~ 40k per week are new hospitalizations or 20%.
20% hospitalization rate is very similar to Chinese and European data.
You want to talk about hospitalizations? There it is!

purelogic
purelogic

I don't understand politics and I don't keep up with it, but now that Biden has the lead in the polls, can't he secure a victory by simply declaring that Trump's corporate tax cuts must be reversed and Trump's trade deal is a joke, we need to be tougher on China? Surely, the stock market will crash it will be all Trump's fault.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

I have it on good authority that Covid-19 is all a hoax. Wonder who said that.

Blurtman
Blurtman

Did the governors of these spiking states issue guidance to protect seniors in assisted living and nursing homes?

MATHGAME
MATHGAME

Better start looking for information on the D614G mutation of SARS-COV-2.

fla56
fla56

mish sorry to have to correct you but you previously dismissed balanced approaches like Sweden

never has it looked more like Sweden the tortoise will beat the many hares on the planet

lockdown is not financially nor socially sustainable and it is this that is at the root of our problems

to be frank it also doesn't help that US ICU ventilation policies are wildly unrealistic

happy to discuss in more detail


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