Housing Starts Seasonal Adjustment Statistical Nonsense
New Residential Construction
The New Residential Construction Report shows housing starts rose 1.9%, permits 5.2%, and completions 15.3%.
- Starts: 1,415,000 SAAR. This is 8.8% above the revised August estimate of 1,388,000.
- Permits: 1,553,000 SAAR. This is 5.2% above the revised August rate of 1,476,000.
- Completions: 1,413,000 SAAR. This is 15.3% above the revised August estimate of 1,226,000.
August Stats as Initially Reported
- Starts: 1,415,000 SAAR.
- Permits: 1.470,000 SAAR
- Starts: 125,000
- Permits: 134,200
- Completed: 121,000
- The census bureau took 125,000 starts and translated those to 1,415,000 units SAAR.
- The data is heavily revised such that a 0% gain vs the prior month is reported as a 1.9% gain.
- In addition, Covid hugely distorted the seasonal adjustments by pushing normally strong Spring numbers into the Summer.
The result is statistical nonsense that fluctuates wildly as reflected in the lead chart.
For further discussion, please see Discounting Revisions Housing Starts Were Flat