GDPNow vs Nowcast vs Blue Chip Forecast

Mish

GDPNow's initial estimate was the lowest anywhere. Now It's at the top of the heap.

GDPNow vs Blue Chip

The GDPNow forecast started at 0.3% it has steadily risen to 2.1%. The Blue Chip Forecast went the other way.

GDPNow vs Nowcast

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Nowcast did its usual flatline over most of the same timeline while GDP has done a steady climb starting March 12.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (13)
No. 1-5
lol
lol

Everything is closing or goin out of business (that not gov't subsidized),so what gonna drive that pathetic growth?Ah Ah moar wait for it...….GOV'T!! which means soaring taxes, fees,borrowing,states are desperate for revenue,nothin off the table………...tax man is comin with a vengeance!!!

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

The Federal deficit is running at 5%+ of GDP, yet GDP grows by just 1.5%-2.0%. Doesn't seem like much "bang for the buck", to say the least.

Blacklisted
Blacklisted

All one needs to know is that when govt grows GDP declines, and govt continues to grow. Even the OECD has conducted studies that prove this point.

Fortunatley, govt's are running out of other people's money, including those willing to buy unbacked govt debt.

Those in govt live in a state of denial, which drives their hypocritical Socialist agenda. They claim the "rich" are greedy, but it is their actions that are based on material jealousy and greed. What else justifies robbing other people, who may have more than they wish they had? What else explains AOC owing back taxes from over five years ago, while complaining about the rich not paying enough tax? Even the 10th Commandment says you should not covet your neighbors stuff. Maybe this is why so many Libs also loath religion.

Shrink govt and anialate the Left's agenda, and GDP will expand, which raises everyone's boat.

Realist
Realist

Looks like more slow and steady growth for this year. Probably next year too. Mish needs some kind of shock to the economy to confirm his “recession this year” call. Trump has already backed down on his bluff to close the border and I don’t think he is stupid enough to accelerate his trade wars. I wonder what shock might tip things?

bradw2k
bradw2k

GDP is a crappy measure of production and "growth," because it mostly measures spending. Spending/investing may be productive OR destructive. You simply cannot measure productivity by measuring the amount of spending. Lots of money was spent/invested in 1999 on .com's, and in 2006 on real estate, but these were net capital destructive activities. When people and businesses are incentivized to save less and consume more, GDP gets goosed even though the reality is that capital is being burned up.

I think GDP institutionalizes the broken window fallacy. As long as people believe it measures economic health, it's a useful statistic for governments and central banks to justify net-destructive policies that make the elite class relatively richer while keeping everyone else running on the treadmill trying to stay ahead of debt-slavery.

The disappearance of yield since 1980 (as in, why are my kids' bank savings accounts SHRINKING 2%+ after CPI) shows that the powers-that-be machine has become very good at masking capital destruction as "growth."


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