GDPNow vs Nowcast: Little Change From Week Ago, 3.9% vs 2.8%


From a week ago, the GDP forecasts moved little on the economic news. Nowcast was unchanged. GDPNow rose 0.1 pp to 3.9%.

GDP Now Latest Forecast: 3.9% - July 11, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.9 percent on July 11, up from 3.8 percent on July 6. The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.29 percentage points to 0.36 percentage points after this morning's Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nowcast Latest Forecast: 2.8% - July 13, 2018

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It takes a mountain to budge Nowcast while GDPNow moves at whim. But both were quiet this week.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (2)
No. 1-2

gov't will never allow negative gdp print (ever)the bureau of labor and propaganda has now confirmed the longest (permanent) economic expansion well....ever!And this "economic expansion " along with the largest mony printing dept expansion on record,coincidence ?


Look at other indicators (ex. heavy truck sales and miles driven, weekly Jobless claims, consumer spending , home sales & consumer confidence) - NONE of these indicators show ANYWHERE near recession or less than 4% growth even...

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