# GDPNow Initial Estimate is Way Too Optimistic

Mish

The final GDPNow estimate for first-quarter GDP was -1.0%.

Yesterday, the BEA's first estimate if first-quarter GDP was -4.8%, a huge miss for the model.

Looking ahead, the model is off to a bad start for the second quarter.

**Latest estimate: -12.1 percent — April 30, 2020
**

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -12.1 percent on April 30. The initial estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 29 was -4.8 percent, 3.8 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on April 28.

**Nowcast Wildly Optimistic**

The New York Fed Nowcast model estimates a wildly optimist -7.79% for second-quarter GDP with -0.4% for the full year.

Both estimates are ridiculous.

**The Blue Chip Consensus**

Judging from the first chart, the Blue Chip estimate is about -24%. That a more realistic number.

**Everyone's Guessing, Even the Fed: How Deep the Recession?**

On April 8, I commented Everyone's Guessing, Even the Fed: How Deep the Recession?

If you are looking for guesses, here's another one: U.S. GDP will contract 30% in second quarter, 5% in 2020

**What's Next for America?**

For a 20-point discussion of what to expect, please see Nothing is Working Now: What's Next for America?

**No V-Shaped Recovery**

Here's the correct viewpoint: The Covid-19 Recession Will Be Deeper Than the Great Financial Crisis.

Simply put, a quick return to business as usual is not in the cards.

**Inflation or Deflation?**

Meanwhile, the debate over inflation or deflation continues.

Will it be Inflation or Deflation?

If you believe the answer is inflation, then you do not understand the importance of credit and demand shocks. Click on the link for discussion.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock