GDPNow Forecast Sinks on ISM and Construction Reports
As of September 3, the GDPNow Forecast is 1.7%.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on September 3, down from 2.0 percent on August 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private fixed investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively.
The forecast fell from from 2.3% on August 26 to 2.0% on August 30, then to 1.7% on September 3.
I commented on the ISM numbers in US Manufacturing Recession Begins: ISM Contracts First Time in 3 Years.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock