GDPNow Forecast 3.9%, Nowcast 2.1%: What to Watch a Week From Now
Once again, Nowcast is likely way too low.
Watch Real Final Sales
GDPNow is projecting a huge inventory build in the third quarter. Its base forecast is 3.9% but real final sales, the bottom line estimate of GDP is only 1.6%.
If accurate, an inventory build will add 2.3 percentage points to GDP at a time when sales and housing are in the midst of a slide.
There are a few more reports next week, so expect the GDPNow estimate to change a bit.
The BEA will report a number before Nowcast updates its estimate, a peculiar way of doing business even though I do not believe they take advantage.
I will post a guess on Thursday. The GDP report is due Friday.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock