Home Global Economics Global Politics Ask Mish

GDPNow and Nowcast 4th-Quarter GDP Estimates Near Convergence: 2.7% vs. 2.6%

Mish

The GDPNow and Nowcast reports are near convergence with surprisingly little volatility and spread vs past history.

GDPNow vs Nowcast

Data Sources

Last quarter we saw gaps of 2 percentage points between GDPNow and Nowcast. The spread is now 0.1 percentage point.

One potential problems with both reports is lack of economic data. Thanks to the government shutdown, workers did not produces dozens of reports. Today, the New Home Sales report was skipped for the second month.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (1)

No. 1-1

themonosynaptic

Jan 26, 2019

Please consider:

Eleven Economic Reports Delayed Due to Gov't Shutdown: Do We Even Need Them? - Mish Talk

Housing starts, retail sales, and business inventory reports are MIA this week. 8 prior reports are also missing.

Why should we care about GDPNow and Nowcast when you don't care about the data that feeds them?

Global Economics

FEATURED

COMMUNITY

Trump's Legal Team Makes a Feeble Day One Showing

Day one of the Trump impeachment trial is over. Team Trump performed very poorly but it didn't matter.

Mish

Frilton Miedman

The Dumbing Down of America is Poised to Accelerate

Political correctness demands mediocrity. So expect more of it.

Mish

Corvinus

Vaccines or Not, Scientists Now Believe Covid is Here to Stay

Ease of transmission, new strains, and limits of vaccination programs all mean Covid-19 will be around for years—and a big business.

Mish

JonathanLabman

Powell Says the True Unemployment Rate is Actually 10%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech today on the labor force and jobs. Let's tune into the discussion.

Mish

Frilton Miedman

Senator Ben Sasse Has Me Cheering. Please Listen Why.

The Nebraska GOP threatens to censure Senator Sasse over Trump. Whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, Sasse delivers a message you should take to heart.

Mish