Four Battleground States Crushed By Covid 19

Mish

Michigan, Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania are among the states hardest hit by Covid-19.

According to Census Data nearly half of small businesses don’t have enough cash to go more than a month. 

Axios provided the lead cartogram.

Michigan is the worst-hit state. Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, are also are among the states where small businesses report being hit hardest.

Michigan

Michigan 2020-05-17

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania 2020-05-17

Florida

Florida 2020-05-17

Ohio

Ohio 2020-05-17

I believe Biden will carry Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Two of 3 would tip the election easily.

Yes, I know it's early, things can change, the 2016 polls were wrong (but not by as much as most believe), etc. etc. etc. etc. and etc.

Those Who Hate Trump and Biden Will Decide the Election

The swing voters, not the alleged Bernie Sanders sitouts will decide the election as noted in Those Who Hate Trump and Biden Will Decide the Election.

“It’s not 2016 anymore, OK?” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican consultant based in Pennsylvania. “There’s no way Joe Biden will be as bad a candidate as Hillary Clinton.”

Importantly, “People like that choose the devil they don’t know,” added Nicholas.

Extremely Narrow Path

The path for Trump is an extremely narrow one. 

It is unlikely, not impossible for Trump to repeat. By unlikely I mean something like 6-4, not 9-1.

Lots of things can happen, but that goes both ways. What appears to be comfortable Biden win can easily turn into a blowout.

Mish

Comments (51)
No. 1-12
davebarnes2
davebarnes2

"Michigan, Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania are among" are 5 states, not 4. I presume you are giving the Yoopers their own state.

JoeJohnson
JoeJohnson

I don't have no dog in the election but I agree about Florida. Even in 2016 with Clinton being the nominee Florida was still very close. Disapproval of Trump by elderly voters, massive in state migration should allow Biden to carry it narrowly.

ajc1970
ajc1970

I'll probably close down my stores over this. Come back 2022ish. I can reopen but surveying the moms who are our customers, they're not coming back any time soon. In March/April I was guessing my business would be down 50-70% when we reopened, but I'm watching re-openings in my industry and they're down over 90%.

But the relevance to your post... though I think Trump AND the governors handled this terribly, the virus hasn't hurt my business. The irrational fear and coming depression are what's going to convince me not to reopen.

Plus landlords trying to play hardball with rent for the 8+ weeks I've been shuttered. Tried to buy myself out of the leases but they wouldn't take it. I have no personal guarantee, looking forward to them getting nothing now. Pigs get slaughtered.

The Hood
The Hood

Really? Michigan and Florida will go Trump. Besides, the odds of Biden being the dems candidate are slim to nyet. I'd look to a dark horse, even Cuban will get trolled out, but he'll be setting himself up for 2024. Of course, this assumes there will even be an election that people will respect. I tend to doubt it. Dem's have done everything they can to get rid Trump. No reason they won't keep on doing everything they can, and nothing is too extreme. Truth be told, we're in the late stage of the 2nd part of a real Revolution. If and/or when they get Trump or when the shooting starts (usually occurs simultaneously) signals the start of a Revolutions 3rd and most violent stage. No one is ready for that and is a virtual guarantee. if we avoid it, I would have to give the credit to Trump and our Constitution. This would break new ground however and would be unprecedented in revolution history. Let's hope he can pull it off with the help of God. But somethings are written in stone, albeit by the hand of God, they are written in stone.

Jojo
Jojo

Don't just think of the presidential election. If people are still hurting economically come October, if many are not back to work then as voters, they are going to take it out on incumbents across the board.

Given that many business owners tend to lean red and to vote more than average people, it is very possible that while Biden may well take out Trump, due to Trump bleeding out from all the shots he has made into his feet and legs, local and perhaps Congress Republicans may gain in the election.

Realist
Realist

Still arguing about who will win the next election? Seems like a waste of time.

Trump may be the Great Divider and the worst President in US history, but I don’t think Biden (or anyone else) will make much difference for the future of the country. Unless somehow, Biden becomes the Great Uniter, and can miraculously repair the screwed up political system in the US.

The reality will most likely be more of the same, no matter who wins: endless bickering and name calling (Trump is certainly the best at name calling), little to no cooperation between the two hopelessly divided parties, and a dysfunctional political system.

On top of that, whoever wins will inherit an economy in the midst of a serious recession. And Trump will have run up the debt more in his 4 years than Obama did in 8, and left a bleak future for the US.

You can argue here about who will win the next election; but you’re simply arguing about where to place the deck chairs on the Titanic.

My condolences.

El_Ted0
El_Ted0

This blog has become nothing more than orgy of Hussman-like pessimism projections, confirmational bias & TDS.

CA2020
CA2020

Texas is about to go full Covid-19 parabolic, and will be a battleground state.

SunnyvaleCA
SunnyvaleCA

One overlooked change in Silicon Valley (and thus the financial viability of California, since SV is the tax mule) is that "working from home" is becoming normalized. What sane person would continue to live in Silicon Valley if they could "work from home" from anywhere else in the world. Even if engineers took a 25% pay cut, they could be living like kings elsewhere.

California is the antithesis of "battleground state," but if you're talk about long-term prospects of a state, California is surely mortally wounded.

psalm876
psalm876

It will not be long before resentment and rage is kindled by the 90% left out of the feds largess. $Trillions spent to make the One Percenters whole at the expense of the presently impoverished and future taxpayers (the young) is a destabilizing factor going forward, no?

The political question will be, who is most to blame for directing the feds flood away from the average hurting citizen and toward the privileged connected elite? The Congress or the White House? What political machinations lie before us as municipal, county and state governments come to grips with this unfolding revenue drought? Will they favor preserving their positions of privilege over providing services? Do we yet see any politician striving to get ahead of these issues, or will they be gobsmacked again?

November seems a lot further off when these ideas are contemplated!

elvis07
elvis07

When the Durham investigation is complete and the facts and evidence are on full display along with the indictments, the clear thinking voters in the middle will decide this election.

Montana33
Montana33

Morning Joe had an interesting segment on how well Joe Biden is polling with old people in these swing States. Joe thinks Donald Trump and the Republican Party are losing them with the often made points that it’s mostly old people who die which is no big deal. I’ll tell you who is terrified of this virus - old people! Guess who has the highest voter turnout - old people! Also, Morning Joe talked about the flawed strategy of attacking Biden as too old. Trump is old too. Also, old people like to vote for old people so don’t attack on age if you need them. The old white people in swing states killed Hillary.


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