Flattening Yield Curve in One Picture
Spread Values in Basis Points
- 10-7 Spread: 04 Basis Points
- 10-5 Spread: 10 Basis Points
- 10-2 Spread: 21 Basis Points
- 05-2 Spread: 11 Basis Points
This cannot possibly mean what is used to mean (i.e. the Fed is tightening into a recession).
How do I know?
In his speech today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not mention "yield curve even once". Instead he talked about "moving stars".
For discussion, please see Powell Praises the Fed, Discusses the Stars (Literally), Defends Goldilocks.
Long Term Picture
Note how the yield curve steepens mightily ahead of recessions as the Fed tries in vain to prevent one.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock