Fed's 2019 Interest Rate Expectations vs Market's Expectations


The Fed's view of where interest rates are headed in 2019 are quite different from market expectations.

Fed vs Market Synopsis

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Key Differences

  • 1 Hike: Fed 29.40% vs Market 0.00%
  • 2 Cuts: Fed 0.00% vs Market 11.9%
  • Neutral+Hike: Fed 58.8% vs Market 40.5%

Question of the Day

I believe the market is far closer.

For a discussion of today's FOMC meeting, please see Fed Cuts Rates 1/4 Percent, Three Dissents: Dot Plot Suggests No More 2019 Cuts

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (5)
No. 1-3
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

Everything stable ... for now.

$US gained today despite cut.

Still think something will "break" by November (likely offshore) ... then chaos.



I cannot vote because I will not sign up for twitter, so I'll vote here: no more rate changes in 2019.


I tend not to look at such short time frames as 3 months. However, the long term trend for interest rates is still towards lower rates in the future. Just as gdp growth and employment growth will continue to slow over the next few years. To counter this slowing, Trump will try to juice growth by spending more and he will want to cut taxes further. As a result, the US federal deficit will continue to rise from 1 trillion per year towards 1.5 trillion per year over the next few years.

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