Expect No Further Labour Gains: What You See is What You Get

Mish

UK election polls have stabilized. The Tory lead is somewhere between 7% and 15%.

Whatever inroads Labour was going to make are now very likely fully realized.

My table is from Opinion Polling for the 2019 United Kingdom General Election.

The table is missing a line. I added the latest Savanta ComRes Poll based on this Tweet.

Savanta ComRes

Polls vs Prior Polls by Same Pollster

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Poll vs Prior Poll Synopsis

  • Support for Tories has not budged one iota.
  • Labour picked up a point at the expense of the Liberal Democrats

UK Poll Lead Changes by Pollster

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Let's assume you believe Opinium has the direction correct and Labour gained a whopping 4 percentage points.

OK, but please note Opinium's starting point. Opinium has the Tory lead at 15 percentage points down from 19 percentage points.

Woah Nelly!

If you are a Labour backe you might object that a 15 point Tory lead cannot possibly be correct.

While "possible", I am inclined to agree that the overall idea is highly unlikely. In fact, I think it is so unlikely that it is wise to exclude Opinium from the analysis. So, let's do that.

UK Election Poll vs Prior Poll by Same Pollster Excluding Opinium

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Poll vs Prior Poll Excluding Opinium Synopsis

  • Support for Tories rose slightly vs no change
  • Support for Labour rose 0.6 PP vs 1.0 PP prior
  • The average Tory lead fell from 9.83 to 8.80 but the change in Tory lead also rose by 0.60 PP from -1.0 to -0.40.

Poll to Poll Stability

Tossing away Opinium as a flawed poll, the leads look like this: 10, 9, 7, 9, 9.

And by throwing away Opinium, the poll-to-poll change in leads looks like this: 0, 0, 0, 0, -2. The -2 swing in favor of Labour is to a plus 9 PP advantage for the Tories.

Which one of those results do you care to believe?

Labour's Only Hope

The only hope for Labour is that every poll is seriously wrong and all of them in the same direction.

Seat by Seat

I will crunch the latest Savanta ComRes numbers on a seat-by-seat basis tomorrow. Given the overall lead has not changed, I expect the overall projections to be similar but with some number of seat-by seat changes.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (8)
No. 1-5
Carl_R
Carl_R

Survation, Opinium, and Deltapoll were the three that showed sizable gains by Labor. All three were comparisons to rather stale polls, before Nov. 23. To me it appears that all polls agree that Labor made gains prior to Nov. 23, and that they have gained nothing since.

FloydVanPeter
FloydVanPeter

Suppose Con-Lab lead stays at 10% +/-, would that suffice to pass Brexit or is Parliament going to stalemate Brexit again?

Mish
Mish

Editor

IMO A 6% lead should be safe enough for a conservative majority. It is possible 4% would do.

Mish
Mish

Editor

I believe Carl has the synopsis correct.

BTW there were no further gains for Labour in the raw polls in 2017 a week away. It was all model changes changes by the pollsters.

I expected little change and it "appears" to have happened. There is still a week though but very happy with these results now.

If these hold we are looking at a 25 to 60 seat majority. I have 48. Waiting for a YouGov update.


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