Expect Covid-19 to Return in the Fall in a Big Way

Mish

A look at what's happening in the Southern Hemisphere suggests something that no one wants to hear.

Covid-19 on a Southern Hemisphere Rampage

An Email exchange with Jim Bianco and Erik Townsend reveals a Covid-19 pattern that many of us expected but no one wanted.

Bianco reports "The virus is exploding in the southern hemisphere … Central/South America, Africa, around India and around Iran."  

"Here is my thinking/idea: The virus is no where near disappearing. Instead it has moved to the southern hemisphere (winter) and out of the northern hemisphere (summer). If so, we are enjoying a summer respite before a second way this coming winter."

Reported Infections - The World Excluding the US

Reported Infections World Excluding the US

Bianco emailed charts of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Egypt, Ethiopia, South Africa, Keyna, India, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, and other countries. 

I put those countries on a single chart, above. Data is from Our World in Data, with credit to Bianco for the idea. 

Thanks Jim!

Phew?!

Yes, we have a collective "Phew" but the chart shows that is not even justified. 

The US has flattened the curve and no more. 

The recent riots may easily un-flatten the curve just as things were, at least for a while, starting to look better, even as some states are looking worse.

US Covid-19 Cases 2020-06-04

US Covid-19 Cases 2020-06-04

New US Epicenters

  • Illinois
  • California
  • Texas
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Virgina

While people breathe a sigh of relief about recent declines in New York and New Jersey, huge problems erupted in Illinois, California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Virginia despite warmer weather.

Seven days of mass rioting without masks are sure to exacerbate these worsening trends.

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Mish

Comments (87)
No. 1-30
anoop
anoop

The future hasn't happened. No matter how bad the past, think positive thoughts!

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Where is your “its just the flu” and “it will magically disappear” messiah now?

numike
numike

"The future enters into us long before it happens"
Rainer Maria Rilke

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

My revised model says 100k MORE deaths by September 21st. We will need a miracle to not hit this. Get ready for shutdowns again this summer and more mass layoffs.

Jdog1
Jdog1

Just like the ruin we see in our cities, we will have the liberals to thank for the second wave of Covid. As a rule, it takes 2 years for a pandemic to run its course, and if the people act stupidly the 2nd wave is worse than the 1st. Well I guess we know what to expect....

Webej
Webej

I only see 3 countries located in the southern hemisphere: Chile, Argentina & S Africa.
Brazil and India are substantially N Hemisphere, and that is where COVID-19 is preponderant.
N Zealand & Australia do not figure in the data.

As for epidemic waves: These are (very) poorly understood. The herd immunity of 80% only applies if we assume homogeneous connectivity and susceptibility. There are scientific estimates based on data so far that put the community immunity to dampen transmission at 10-20%. Herd immunity is a number that belongs within vaccination theory, not epidemic wave theory.

Whole thesis is baseless speculation on the basis of too few variables about a phenomena we know very little about (waxing and waning of plagues). Susceptibility (differentiation in immune systems and cellular biology) for pathogens is not homogenous and virtually impossible to predict.

Jdog1
Jdog1

I am thinking more fall than summer. Even if the numbers get worse in the summer, there will be massive resistance from all sides to not lock down because of financial and other considerations. I expect that when fall hits and the weather cools, the numbers will explode, and there will not be any other choice. So far estimates are about 15% of the populations has been exposed, and we will not see the beginning of the end until we get to 60%

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Another round of lockdowns across the globe?
The psychological impact will be massive, food chains broken, both quiet and loud desperation immeasurable. Doesn't bare thinking about.

Imagine an autumn and winter of awful weather and no joy. Christmas devoid of social interaction, close to zero footfall in the run-up to the holiday season.

That's a depression.

njbr
njbr

We are riding on the residual effect of the shut-down. Florida, today, has their highest ever number of new cases--a week of so after re-opening (average incubation time 1 to 2 weeks). On 5/27 the US hit 100K recorded deaths, today on 6/4, we're at 110K--a week later. That will accelerate with the number of cases. It is quite likely that 10K per week will be the lower bound for the restof the summer.

It is becoming clear that the summer slow-down effect will not be that great and with the messaging that it is all over, the spread will widen.

...Researchers studied 144 geopolitical areas around the world with more than 375,000 COVID-19 cases by March 27. They found that public health interventions are working – they are slowing down the spread of this pandemic. However, scientists found no evidence that countries experiencing warm weather in March had any advantage over colder climates. COVID-19 is a global phenomenon and you have to remember that it is pretty hot in the southern hemisphere. COVID-19 is spreading very quickly in Brazil and Australia. And what is slowing this disease down is not the warm weather, but extensive public health measures....Dionne Gesink, one of the authors of the study, said: “Summer is not going to make this go away. It’s important people know that. On the other hand, the more public health interventions an area had in place, the bigger the impact on slowing the epidemic growth.”...

economist13b
economist13b

Mish, I don't believe your analysis of the U.S. is completely accurate. Testing is also increasing, i.e. the number of tests today. If you adjust new cases per day by the increase in tests, the overall infection trend is downwards in some states (e.g. California).

This is not to say we won't have a wave 2. But even in that case, things now in place such as social distancing, testing, the use of face masks and cleansing, etc., will likely reduce the impact.

Sechel
Sechel

Fauci has said as much. Much of the U.S. still doesn't have a good contact and tracing program. Without the Federal government taking the lead I'm not sure its possible. NY seems to moving in that direction thanks to Mike Bloomberg and John Hopkins but NY is not the country.

We should be emulating Germany. There are other examples like Vietnam and South Korea but culturally we're probably closer to Germany.

Germany’s “track and trace” system has been instrumental in stalling the spread of Covid-19 and preventing it from overwhelming the health system.

And even if we develop a vaccine. This country has such an anti-vaccine sub-culture we'll have difficulty getting 1/3 the country to vaccinate. They believe its a plot by Bill Gates to track them

Anda
Anda

In south africa a high court judgement on the lockdown there ruled it or various facets of it unconstitutional

Have not seen national measures challenged in court elsewhere that I remember.

In Spain they plan to allow travel within the country on the 22nd, international travel on 1st july. Actually I'm not sure anyone much knows what is going on, and the government has little respect left from anyone regarding their presentation of anything.

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Bug in the "like" heart logic. I "liked" Webej and went on a list of 3 people, myself included. But the count was 2. Toggle my "like" off and the count went to 3, with the list having 2. Toggle on, the count's 2, the list has all 3. Time to refresh the page.

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Bianco forgot Russia in his list of "Southern Hemisphere" nations.

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Here's a challange: Name a more misleading and useless metric than reported cases of Covid 19 per political unit?

Jackula
Jackula

Been a lot of transmissions in meat packing plants...this bug is so contagious its still a problem in heat and goes ballistic at 40 F. I just hope the Italian doctors are right the covid there mutated into somthing non lethal.

Jojo
Jojo

Bubble busting time has arrived for all you panicking Debby Downers. Uh oh....

Karl Friston: up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid-19
The influential professor's statistical observations could radically change how we lift lockdown
June 4, 2020

JoeAmerica
JoeAmerica

There will always be a contingent of people that think they know better than the professionals. Sadly, they also infect others and complicate the problem.

mrutkaus
mrutkaus

“Time present and time past
Are both perhaps present in time future,
And time future contained in time past.
If all time is eternally present
All time is unredeemable.
What might have been is an abstraction
Remaining a perpetual possibility
Only in a world of speculation.
What might have been and what has been
Point to one end, which is always present.
Footfalls echo in the memory
Down the passage which we did not take
Towards the door we never opened
Into the rose-garden. My words echo
Thus, in your mind.
But to what purpose
Disturbing the dust on a bowl of rose-leaves
I do not know.
Other echoes
Inhabit the garden. Shall we follow?”

T.S. Eliot, Four Quartets

Lysander3
Lysander3

According to this article in Science magazine (based on 2 per reviewed studies) some 40 to 60% of the population are already immune due to contact with earlier forms of Corona viruses.

njbr
njbr

Read the Science article on people having some sort of pre-existing immunity.

It says...Thiel and colleagues analyzed blood from 68 uninfected people and found that 34% hosted helper T cells that recognized SARS-CoV-2. The La Jolla team detected this crossreactivity in about half of stored blood samples collected between 2015 and 2018, well before the current pandemic began. The researchers think these cells were likely triggered by past infection with one of the four human coronaviruses that cause colds; proteins in these viruses resemble those of SARS-CoV-2....

The article says 34% to 50%.

Not 40%, not 60%, not 80%.

And it doesn't say immune, it says that a similar virus had been encountered in the past and the body was prepared to mount a response to the Covid 19 virus. It doesn't mean you won't get it, it's just further along the path for the body to fight it. Just because you had a cold before, doesn't mean you'll never have the effects of a cold ever again.

And, use your brain, if 80% were already immune, there would be no epidemic. It never could have spread as far, as fast and as widely as it has. There would be herd immunity.

RonJ
RonJ

"Yes, we have a collective "Phew" but the chart shows that is not even justified. "

Bend the curve was never designed to eliminate Covid-19. It also suppressed the attainment of herd immunity.

Nobel Award winning scientist Michael Leavitt said recently, that the lock down, as it was performed, was a huge mistake. Again, the issue of herd immunity.

RonJ
RonJ

Statement from The Lancet
Today, three of the authors of the paper, "Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis", have retracted their study. They were unable to complete an independent audit of the data underpinning their analysis. As a result, they have concluded that they "can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources."

The retraction notice is published today, June 4, 2020

KTLA "News" kept telling me that hydroxychloroquine was dangerous. A national news anchor apparently said that if i took HCQ it would kill me.

Yet people have taken HCQ for decades and the media can't point to a list of people who have died from using the drug. This drug has been utterly negatively politicized. Is that politization endangering peoples lives, by keeping people from using the drug, particularly in concert with zinc?

Bastiat
Bastiat

Well Americans aren't known for their mastery of world geography. You do realise out of those 12 countries 8 are not in the southern hemisphere?

Fl0yd
Fl0yd

Thanks for the charts, Mish.

The charts doesn't seem to show correlation with the seasons or temperatures. It does seem to show some correlation with lockdowns.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Some people struggle for months with Covid, with symptoms that come and go. Do they still have the virus? Do they have a hyperactive immune system that is causing the symptoms? Do they have scar tissue from Covid? Do they have what is known as myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS), which often follows viral attacks? It's not clear at this point:

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

“Nobody gets out alive. This is the end, my friend. I don’t know what’s going to happen but I’m going to get my kicks in before the whole damn sh-t house goes up in flames.”

Have a good Saturday, Mish. I’m going out for a 12 mile run on the wooded trails today. I don’t expect to run into Governor Morbidly Obese, which is a nice bonus.

Montana33
Montana33

I do wonder how we will handle the second spike. In California the testing has more than doubled since April but from a very low level. It’s hard to know how much is more testing vs more virus. It used to be nearly impossible to get a test here. We have contact tracers now and we had none in April. As long as our hospitals don’t get overwhelmed then we can probably handle more cases per day than we currently have. We are all learning. What is the manageable balance of new cases per day?


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