Exit Polls Show CSU Suffers Worst Bavaria Result Since 1950, Greens and AfD Gain


CSU came in first place in Bavaria but it was a humiliating, worst-showing win since 1950. Greens came in 2nd. AfD 3rd.

CNN reports Angela Merkel's Bavarian Allies Lose Power in Crushing Vote.

> An exit poll from Bavaria's state election Sunday shows the ruling Christian Social Union has lost its majority, in a humiliating performance that is likely to rattle German Chancellor Angela Merkel's fragile coalition government.

> The Christian Social Union (CSU), a conservative sister party to Merkel's Christian Democrat Union (CDU), has dominated Bavarian politics since the end of World War II, ruling the key state for all but three years of the past seven decades.

> An exit poll reported by state broadcaster ARD show the CSU with just 35.5% of the vote and the pro-immigration environmentalist Greens in second place with 18.5%, a major gain of almost 10 percentage points.

> The far-right anti-immigration Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) is forecast to win 11% of the vote, the poll shows. If confirmed, the party will win seats in the Bavarian parliament.

> With a drop in support for her allies and more tumult in store for her coalition, Merkel, now serving her fourth term, could find herself fighting to keep her job as party chair when the CDU holds its annual congress in December.

> Analysts had said a poor performance in Bavaria may more immediately force Minister of Interior and CSU party leader Horst Seehofer to resign.

Bavaria Exit Poll Percentages

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Results By Gender

SPD Crashes to Fifth Place

I commented yesterday that SPD, Merkel's coalition partner at the national level might crash to fifth place.

That's how the exit polls have it right now.

Election Math

To enter the Landtag, the Bavarian Parliament, the parties need to win at least five percent of the total number of valid votes, a hurdle that also applies to the German federal Parliament.

Linke (far left) will not make the cut. FDP is on the bubble.

Messy Coalition Possibilities

  • CSU and AfD are anti-immigration but the Greens are pro-immigration.
  • CSU plus SPD does not top 50%.
  • CSU has ruled out any coalition with AfD.
  • CSU's preferred partner is likely FDP, but FDP might not make the 5% threshold. Besides CSU plus FDP will not come close to 50%.

Three-Way Mess (See Revision Addendum Below)

  1. CSU + SPD + FW
  2. CSU + SPD + FDP (assuming FDP makes the cut and the 50% threshold is hit)
  3. CSU + FW + FDP (assuming FDP makes the cut and the 50% threshold is hit)

What to Expect? Anything

I commented yesterday that a poor result for CSU could lead to CSU resignations at the national level or even a collapse of Merkel's government.

She would welcome the resignations, but not a total government collapse.

Increased Polarization

Increased polarization is apparent. CSU lost voters to the far left (Greens) and far right (AfD).

FDP might not even make the cut and support for SPD outright collapsed.

There is no CDU/CSU Union to speak of. Germany has splintered.


A reader points out I incorrectly used percentages instead of expected seats.

> Your coalition math does not work out as you use percentages instead of seats. Because of the particularities of the German voting system, it's better to use seats for coalitions etc. The Bavarian parliament has 192 seats, so 97 is a majority. As of right now, the CSU has 78, the FW 25, giving them a majority (SPD 20, Greens 37, AfD 22, FDP 10).

There are more coalition possibilities than I pointed out above.

Another reader suggested this was a big defeat for AfD. It might seem that way, but support for AfD would have been far greater if CSU did not take similar positions on immigration.

Not only will AfD be in the Bavarian parliament, CSU adopted similar positions on immigration.

Germany has splintered.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (6)
No. 1-5

Your coalition math does not work out as you use percentages instead of seats. Because of the particularities of the German voting system, it's better to use seats for coalitions etc. The Bavarian parliament has 192 seats, so 97 is a majority. As of right now, the CSU has 78, the FW 25, giving them a majority (SPD 20, Greens 37, AfD 22, FDP 10).

Mike Mish Shedlock
Mike Mish Shedlock


Added excellent comments from ariantes - Thanks


Seehofer has NOT done anything:

  1. Asylum seekers still live in OPEN centers in Germany and hang around freely in German cities harassing women and some commit rapes and murders. EU directives allow ALL asylum seekers to be placed in CLOSED refigee camps or CLOSED residences for the duration of their asylum application processing.

  2. FAILED asylum seekers still live mostly in OPEN centers in Germany and hang around freely in German cities harassing women and some commit rapes and murders. ALL failed asylum seekers can be placed in DETENTION according to EU directives until they can be repatriated or deported back home.

  3. Germany just lifted the two year stop in family re-unifications under Seehofer and this means that MILLIONS of new Syrians and Iraqis and Afganistanis etc. will be coming to Germany through family re-unification if they have one family member already in Germany.

  4. Seehofer has FAILED in repatriating or deporting FAILED asylum seekers to such an extent that there are about half a million FAILED asylum seekers in Germany. Seehofer's solution: Let's give these FAILED asylum seekers a residence permit if they find a low wage job for a short while so all failed asylum seekers can also stay in Germany if they just find a low wage job for a short while, get the residence permit Seehofer is giving out and get back on welfare after getting the residence permit.

  5. Seehofer fight with Merkel in the summer of 2018 was over such and IDIOTIC and INCOMPETENT issue as Seehofer wanted to stop migrants already registered in some other EU country on German borders. Actually Germany could STOP all migrants on German borders since Germany is surrounded by SAFE countries but Seehofer did NOT even ask for this. The fight over stopping migrants already registered elsewhere on German borders was stupid for 2 reasons a) Germany and any other EU country can do Dublin returns of asylum seekers already registered in some other EU country to the country where they were registered EASILY but Germany has been SABOTAGING itself since 2015 in that BAMF (German asylum agency) checked EuroDAC fingerprint register whether a migrant was already registered somewhere else ONLY in the asylum interview and since there was such a huge amount of arrivals 2015-2016 this led to the asylum interviews happening months or over a year after arrival to Germany and this caused Germany to miss the deadlines in Dublin agreement to return these migrants to the first EU country they were registered in so due to Merkel and BAMF incompetence Germany ended up keeping 100,000-200,000 asylum seekers that were registered somewhere else and that they could have returned through Dublin Agreement. Even Sweden has a separate process where the check EuroDAC fingerprint register immediately after arrival of asylum seekers and do the Dublin returns to first country. However German INCOMPETENT bureaucracy only checks this in the asylum interview leading to Germany missing the Dublin agreement timelines to do returns. b) Germany could stop all migrants at the border since Germany is surrounded by SAFE countries and stopping everyone at the border would NOT break Geneva Convention just like France does NOT break Geneva Convention by stopping migrants trying to come from Italy to France at the border since summer of 2015 or by refusing to accept asylum applications at the border or by emptying trains from Italy from migrants on the first stop in France and driving them on vans back to Italy or French border police guarding French countryside and mountain area next to Italy and catching migrants and driving them back to Italy.

6.To fix the "FIGHT" with Seehofer which was a play-fight over nothing to fool voters Merkel BEGGED other countries to sign bilateral agreements with Germany to take back previously registered asylum seekers even when German INCOMPETENT bureaucrats failed to request Dublin returns on the timeline as specified in Dublin agreement.

Greece agreed to sign this agreement with Merkel and Merkel promised to bring to Germany all migrants currently in Greece who have relatives in Germany so Merkel took thousands and thousands of new migrants to Germany and what did Merkel get? NOTHING since the whole catastrophe of 2015 was caused by Greece stopping border control, stopping detention and stopping closed refugee camps and closed residences and letting everyone previously in detention out and letting migrants go freely through Greece without registering them and by even giving them quick ferry rides from Greek islands to Greek mainland so they could go north. Once word spread that borders were open millions wanted to come. In 2015 Greece pushed north over 1+ million migrants and only registered 11,000 asylum seekers so Greece pushed north 99% of migrants so of course they could agree to take back REGISTERED migrants since they did NOT register anyone. Since early 2016 Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia and Macedonia (with Polish and Czech troops helping out) have CLOSED the borders all the way to Greece (Hungary closed borders already in autumn 2015) so since then hardly any new registered migrants have gotten through to Germany so no others to take back and Greece got to send thousands and thousands of migrants to Germany. Greek PM Tsipras must have laughed at Merkel's INCOMPETENCE behind her back...

Other country "helping" Merkel by signing Merkel's incompetent agreement was Spain but when previous Spanish governments registered everyone as asylum seekers and were efficient in returning them home due to bilateral treaties with Marocco and Tunisia and did not allow registered asylum seekers to go north there was hardly anyone to return from Germany to Spain from that time. New Spanish government led by Leftist PM with minority government has adopted leftist policy of NOT registering migrants if they do NOT want to register so as "NOT to violate their human rights" and this has led to huge rush of arrivals to Spain in 2018 when word spread one can get through Spain without registering (so one can ask for asylum from say Germany if one gets there) so Spain has had most migrant arrivals in 2018 and leftist Spanish PM has ordered Spanish authorities to pick migrants up from the sea and bring them to Spain quickly so as to avoid drownings so there is a flood of migrants coming right now through Spain to Europe. France was already forced to order French border police on to the Spain-France border with instructions to stop the migrants at the border and if they cross the border to return them back to Spain. Spanish PM could happily sign the agreement Merkel BEGGED for to return REGISTERED asylum seekers to Spain from Germany since previous government did NOT let them get through to Germany so nothing to return and current Spanish PM does NOT register migrants so if they get through France to Germany they can NOT be returned since they are NOT registered in Spain.

Italy refused to sign Merkel's begging agreement since Italy has registered about half of migrants as asylum seekers while also pushing hunreds of thousands north without registration since 2013 when leftist Letta and leftist Renzi started the taxi rides from Libyan coast to Italy leading to hundreds of thousands coming per year since 2013. If Italy had signed the agreement Germany could have returned minimum 50,000-100,000 migrants who were registered in Italy but who still traveled north. The hundreds of thousands Italy has left UNREGISTERED could NOT have been returned from Germany or other EU countries since they were NOT registered in Italy.

  1. Germany has been giving even FAILED asylum seekers welfare money and asylum seekers who are Dublin cases are also given welfare money in Germany and some come repeatedly to Germany to get the welfare money. Then Merkel and Seehofer act all surprised "Why are FAILED asylum seekers NOT returning home?" Duh, you INCOMPETENT idiots are giving them welfare money and letting them live freely in Germany including even raping women and killing men instead of stopping all welfare money and putting them in DETENTION to wait for repatriation or deportation. "Why are Dublin cases coming repeatedly to Germany?" Duh, you INCOMPETENT idiots are giving them welfare money and letting them live freely in Germany and only check their fingerprints from EuroDAC at the asylum interview which even now can be 2-3 months from the date they came so Germany gives 2-3 months minimum of free welfare money to Dublin cases and let's them hang out freely in Germany during this 2-3 months.

  2. Germany gave in 2017 about 50,000 residence permits to asylum seekers based on "humanitarian protection" which is given to migrants who are NOT ELIGIBLE for either asylum or subsidiary protection. The funny thing is EU directives do NOT demand "humanitarian protection" and over half of EU countries do NOT have that category so Germany could have sent these 50,000 given "humanitarian protection" back home instead. Seehofer has continued this insanity and incompetence and soft touch. Salvini just gutted the Italian laws regarding "humanitarian protection" so from the about 20,000 "humanitarian protection" residence permits Italy gave in 2017 they should give maybe 20-200 in the year 2019.

  3. Germany does NOT deport rapists, murderers, salafists, extreme islamists or Al-qaida or ISIS fanatics or islamic hate preachers if there might be a possibility they would meet other kinds of treatment than being fanned with feathers upon return to their home countries. In other words Germany is co-opted and controlled by NGO's with human rights activists running the show instead of German government and Merkel and Merkel's loyal poodle Seehofer keeps yapping for show but does NOTHING. There is NO problem deporting all of the above as clearly shown by Eastern Europe and as clearly shown by Salvini when Salvini has multiplied deportations.

  4. German media is like media was in Soviet Union in that political correctness reigns supreme and the ruling elite like Merkel and Seehofer are NOT questioned in any meaningful way. In Soviet Union communism was always great talking about communism's problems was hate speech and now multiculturalism and loose immigration policy are always great and talking about multiculturalism and loose immigration policy's problems is hate speech.

If Germany had a free press Merkel and Seehofer would be put in front of tens of microphones and cameras after EVERY violent crime by asylum seekers, FAILED asylum seekers and asylum seekers to whom Germany gave residence permits with the highest acceptance rate of any country in EU (even Sweden was more tight in giving residence permits than Germany) and Merkel and Seehofer would be asked difficult and hard questions instead of media allowing them to blather about irrelevant nonsense or speak political-gobbledy-bla-bla or speak platitudes or politically correct bla-bla.

When a failed iraqi asylum seeker raped and murdered a 15-year old Jewish girl in Germany with other asylum seekers and then fled to Iraq to escape getting caught every German newspaper should have had a headline along "Merkel's SHAME" and list all the failures I have listed here. Merkel and Seehofer should be running from reporters EVERY DAY asking why they have NOT done the things I listed above instead of Germany's media giving Merkel and Seehofer a pass for their REPEATED FAILURES and total INCOMPETENCE in running Germany. German media has concentrated on political squabbles that are minor or non-existent while closing their eyes and German people's minds from what I have listed.

Also AfD is full of incompetent and clueless people too because they also concentrate on many non-issues and trivialities instead of hammering Merkel and Seehofer with what I have listed. AfD were so clueless they though Seehofer was tightening the line and that the fight between Merkel and Seehofer was over something meaningful despite it being a political show to fool voters and make Seehofer seem tight, hard and responsible while in reality Seehofer is anything but.

Remember Seehofer and CSU were supporting Merkel ALL THE WAY during 2015-2016 despite Seehofer saying a few mildly critical words about Merkel here and there...

Mike Mish Shedlock
Mike Mish Shedlock


FDP barely in - most likely This make coalition math more difficult

Mike Mish Shedlock
Mike Mish Shedlock


with FDP in, a majority is 101

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