Excellent Set of Tweets on Bonds, Crashes, Cannabis, Lumber by Charlie Bilello
Crash Course on Crash Courses
Lumber Part 1
Lumber Part 2
Crypto vs Fiat 2018
Hank Paulson Lies
- I confess. This idea was not mine. Rather I picked the idea up from Lindzon Lindzon@howardlindzon.
- I believe Bilello's Tweet on credit spreads is the key. As long as junk companies can get cheap junk financing, it is highly unlikely there will be the crash that many have called for.
- I am positive the market is insanely overvalued, but that does not imply a "crash" as we saw from 2007-2009. Nor have I called for a crash. I define a crash as a 30% or greater decline in a year.
- My favored scenario, and the most painful one, is not a crash but rather a slow bleed over 5-10 years that takes the S&P 500 50%-65% lower.
- When does it start? Sorry, I don't know. My crystal ball refuses to say. All my crystal ball is willing to say is that credit spreads will looking nothing like they do today at the end of it all.
Mike "Mish" Shedock