Dot Plot Fantasyland Flashback vs Current Rate Cut Expectations


In December, Powell said the Fed was on "autopilot". Let's compare those dot plots with current Fed Fund Futures.

The above chart is from CME Fedwatch.

December 11, 2019 FOMC Rate Odds on 2019-05-29

  • Hikes 0%
  • No Change: 18.2%
  • 1 Cut: 39.5%
  • 2 Cuts: 30.5%
  • 3 Cuts: 10.2%
  • 4 Cuts: 1.5%
  • 5 Cuts: 0.1%

The odds of at least one cut are 81.8%

September 18, 2019 Fedwatch

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September 18, 2019 FOMC Odds on 2019-05-29

  • Hikes 0%
  • No Change: 45.1%
  • 1 Cut: 43.7%
  • 2 Cuts: 10.5%
  • 3 Cuts: 0.7%

The odds of at least one cut are 54.9%

Unfortunately, I failed to capture CME Fedwatch odds following the December 19, "autopilot" meeting, but I did comment on the dot plot of Fed expectations.

Flashback December 19, 2018 Fed Hikes as Expected

Let's take a peek at my comments on December 19, 2018, in Fed Hikes as Expected, Dot Plot of Expected Hikes Changes Significantly.

Dot Plot December 19, 2018

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December 2018 Fed Governor Projections

  • Cut Votes: 0
  • No Change: 2
  • One Hike: 4
  • Two Hikes: 5
  • Three Hikes: 6

What a hoot.

September is even more amusing.

September 2018 Fed Governor Projections

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Every step of the way the Fed overestimated the strength of the economy and its resolve to hike.

March 20, 2019 Dot Plot

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Even in March, not a single Fed governor anticipated any cuts this year.

The Fed next meets on June 18-19.

That dot plot is sure to continue the amusement.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (8)
No. 1-4

Fed finally realizing it cannot (covertly)print enough cash to prop up well.....everything!It has to deploy QE 4 on a massive scale along with immediate NIRP that's the only legit way you can get away with printing tens of trillions and continue to buy well ....everything and not detonate the dollar...….yet!


"That dot plot is sure to continue the amusement."

Yes, number 3 looks like a bell. It is amusing.


These charlatans are well on their way to completely destroying the currency. God only knows what horrors await the masses that are for now, blissfully ignorant. Hopefully, at some point in the not too distant future, there will be Peoples Tribunals, where these criminals will be held to account.


3T on the balance sheet and set to increase to 10T by the mid 2020s.

Global Economics