Democrats are In the Lead in Both Georgia Senate Races

Mish

Assuming you believe the polls, Democrats are in the lead in both Georgia Senate races.

Georgia Senate Runoff Contestants

Republican U.S. Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue face Democratic challengers Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in Georgia runoff elections. 

Spotlight on the Polls

Georgia Senate Runoff Polls 2021-01-03

Many people dissed the 2020 election polls. Yes, the polls had problems. But the problems were universal and the polls did get the presidential election winner.

Trafalgar vs. Nate Silver

Trafalgar vs Nate Silver

State by State Results

  • Georgia: Biden 49.5 vs Trump 49.3: Biden +0.2
  • Nevada: Biden 50.1 vs Trump 47.7: Biden +2.4
  • Florida: Trump 51.2 vs Biden 47.9: Trump +3.3
  • Pennsylvania: Biden 50.0 vs Trump 48.8: Biden +1.2
  • Ohio: Trump 53.3 vs Biden 45.3: Trump +8.0
  • Michigan: Biden 50.6 vs Trump 47.8: Biden +2.8
  • North Carolina: Trump 50.1 vs Biden 48.7: Trump 1.4
  • Arizona: Biden 49.4 vs Trump 49.1: Biden +0.3
  • Wisconsin Biden 49.6 vs Trump 48.9: Biden +0.7

The above election results from Politico.

State by State Absolute Value of Errors

  • Georgia: Trafalgar 4.5, Silver 0.5 
  • Nevada: Trafalgar 3.1, Silver 3.7
  • Florida: Trafalgar 1.2, Silver 5.8 
  • Pennsylvania: Trafalgar 3.1, Silver 3.5 
  • Ohio: Trafalgar 3.2, Silver 7.4
  • Michigan: Trafalgar 5.3, Silver 5.2  
  • North Carolina: Trafalgar 0.7, Silver 3.1
  • Arizona: Trafalgar 2.8, Silver 2.3 
  • Wisconsin: Trafalgar 1.1, Silver 7.6  

In Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, if you averaged Silver and Trafalgar you would have been nearly on the money due to offsetting errors. 

On the whole, it was not a good performance by anyone but Silver did get the overall call correctly.

Please don't disclose your TCS and claim Trump won, because there is virtually no evidence of substantial fraud. 

Trafalgar on Georgia Senate

If you happen to be a believer in Trafalgar, then they currently have Ossoff at +3.0 and Warnock at +1.0.

Silver adjusted Trafalgar to Ossoff +5.0 and Warnock +5.0.

Based on the general election, it's not clear why Silver should adjust Trafalgar at all, but do note that Georgia happened to be Trafalgar's second biggest miss. 

Georgia Early Senate Voting

Georgia early voting for the January 5 runoff has ended. A record 3 million Georgia voters cast their ballots already.

What Does the Early Voting Tell Us?

For discussion, please consider the 538 article What The Early Vote In Georgia Can and Can’t Tell Us.

Note, at the time of the article were were not yet 3 million+
votes cast.

Through Monday, more people — 2,337,477 — have officially voted in Georgia’s upcoming Senate runoff than in any other runoff in Georgia history. That’s a meaningful milestone considering that the eight previous runoff elections have all been low-turnout affairs. But it doesn’t necessarily tell us anything about who is going to win this year’s races.

For instance, we don’t know how those 2.3 million voters voted (while turnout numbers are released on a daily basis, no actual election results are reported until polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern on Jan. 5). And because Georgia does not register voters by party, we don’t know whether those voters are disproportionately Democrats or Republicans either.

We do have some clues about who has voted thanks to demographic information in the voter file: namely, voters’ race. Voters so far in Georgia are 55 percent non-Hispanic white, 32 percent non-Hispanic Black and 13 percent of other races (or of unknown race). That’s a more diverse electorate than at this point in the general election, when, according to The New York Times/Upshot’s Nate Cohn, fewer than 30 percent of early voters were Black. At first glance, that might seem like a good omen for Democrats given their strength with Black voters. And there are other rosy signs for Democrats in the early-voting data too, like turnout being lowest in two heavily Republican congressional districts in north Georgia.

But none of that will matter if hordes of white voters and north Georgia Republicans turn out to vote on election day, which is very possible. Potentially millions of people have yet to vote, and because the type of person who votes early is different from the type of person who votes on election day, those voters could completely change the face of the electorate. (Indeed, more than 975,000 Georgians voted on Election Day in November, and President Trump won them 60 percent to 38 percent. The Black share of the electorate wound up lower than the Black share of the early vote in November as well.) As the saying goes, don’t count your chickens before they hatch, and don’t form any opinions about who is going to win Georgia based on the early vote.

Thus, the short answer is the early polls tell us nothing other than the turnout will likely set a record.

The polls don't tell us much either. 

The six most recent pollsters are rated C, B/C, C-, Not Rated, B/C, and Not Rated.

There are few quality polls and few recent polls. Perhaps the most meaningful shift is the change by Trafalgar.

It is the only pollster on that list twice.

Traalgar went from Perdue +3.0 to Ossoff +3.0 and Loeffler +7.0 to Warnock +1.0.

That's a huge shift between December 16 and December 27.

Nothing would surprise me but I suspect this will be a split. To pick one, it would be Warnock.

What If?

If Democrats win both seats they have a shot at controlling the agenda assuming no defections either way. 

And if that happens, much of the blame will go to Trump for his petulant whining and downright dangerous tactics as noted in Trump's Dangerous Delusions Increase in Magnitude.

Even still, wild Progressive ideas won't likely pass as a 51-50 coalition would be too fragile.

Mish

Comments (80)
No. 1-21
davebarnes2
davebarnes2

Who believes in political polls in the USA anymore?
I was a junkie. No longer.

Sechel
Sechel

wondering how Trump's leaked call with the Georgia Secretary of State plays into this. The President of the United States is openly encouraging and threatening John Raffensperger to commit election fraud

njbr
njbr

@tedcruz used to boast that as a youngster he memorized the Constitution and recited it before civic organizations. So he knows there is no constitutional procedure of this sort. He’s just lying. And @MariaBartiromo eats it up. These people are deplorable and dangerous....

...Ted Cruz tells Maria Bartiromo that the "electoral commission" he's demanding could ultimately "set aside" the election results -- the implication being that this would clear the way for another Trump term...

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Buy Gold, Silver. $ will suffer as wilder and wilder policies become the norm if Dems have their way.

aprnext
aprnext

Darn! Those Georgia late vote counts again!

Realist
Realist

Meanwhile, all 10 living former Defense Secretaries have declared the election over, and reminded the military of their duty to the constitution, not to Trump.

JoeJohnson
JoeJohnson

These races are tossups, a lot of conservatives will stay home. White rural voters in Georgia were and are in their heart populist, they are not country club Romney/McConnell Republicans.

JoeJohnson
JoeJohnson

Which makes me wonder if Schumer will be able to get Manchin, Collins and Murkowski on board for a 3rd "stimulus".

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

My WAG is that the Dems win both seats...........and if so......Republicans can put the blame squarely on soon-to-be ex-President Trump. He sacrificed Loeffler and Perdue in his attempt to cheat to win the Presidency. Simple as that. I hope they noticed.

I just wouldn’t read more into having a narrow majority than what it really means.

"The Senate operates with the 60-vote-requirement filibuster rule. There are 100 Senate seats, and it takes 60 Senate votes for “closure” on a piece of legislation....to bring that piece of legislation to the floor of the Senate for amendments and a final vote....that final vote is decided by a simple majority in most cases. But it takes 60 Senate votes to even have a chance of being voted upon."

Pardon me for plagiarizing that, but I’m not going to post a reference. It’s true enough. It takes more than a simple majority to push legislation through the Senate. You have to buy politicians on both sides of the aisle.

njbr
njbr

Trump is expected to give Rep. Devin Nunes (farmer with NO cow) the Presidential Medal of Freedom — the nation’s highest civilian honor — on Monday, and to give the same award to Rep. Jim (Gym) Jordan next week.

Rbm
Rbm

Funny ive been spending to much time on face book. I have noticed a lot less far right chatter from my right friends. Wondering if they figured out how they are getting played or have they moved to parlor. Did see a tenn tea party post. Guess the have to get back in the game since the dem are in.

AshH
AshH

PredictIt currently has Warnock at 62% odds and Ossoff at 53% odds.

Curiously they also have the Dems not winning both seats at 55% odds.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The only way the Dems won't win these seats is if everyone who voted for the Republican candidates in November does the same. That doesn't look likely with a small percentage of Republicans saying they will either not vote or write in Trump's name. That will be enough to tip the Senate to the Dems. Trump supporters are really the dumbest people anywhere. They are still contributing to him.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

This video is garbage. Many precincts go 75/25 all the time in America. Even in the suburbs and cities this happens.

amigator
amigator

Sure I believe in polls but not quite as much as my Horoscope.

Bsalarm
Bsalarm

No poll should be published anymore without a detailed accounting of ascertainment. How many asked? How many replied? At the very least. And giving the pollsters credit for picking the presidential winner is ridiculous. There were only 2 candidates and they got it wrong last time. That’s random.

Rocky Raccoon
Rocky Raccoon

Everything Donald Trump touches dies.

Mish
Mish

Editor

The polls provide a snapshot with a margin of error. The main problem is the margin of error is way larger than reported.


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