Credit Spreads Signal Recession
The Tweet of the day goes to Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway.
In contrast to 2015, this is not just oil-related. Let's fill in all the missing pieces.
First Time Since Lehman
The Financial Times reports US Credit Markets Dry Up as Volatility Rattles Investors.
Not a single company has borrowed money through the $1.2tn US high-yield corporate bond market this month. If that drought persists, it would be the first month since November 2008 that not a single high-yield bond priced in the market, according to data providers Informa and Dealogic.
Junk Bond Spreads
Bloomberg reports High-Grade Credit Weakens Most Since February on GE Angst.
Leveraged Loan Deals
Contrary Indicators "No Recession in Sight"
This one is either downright funny or ironically serious, depending on your point of view.
Top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow says 'Recession is so far in the distance I can't see it'.
Looming Maturity Wall
The preceding two charts are from the MarketWatch report U.S. Corporate Debt Party is Getting Out of Hand.
Not Just US
It's not just the US either: [Europe Is Ground Zero for Global Credit Fears](Europe Is Ground Zero for Global Credit Fears)
The above Bloomberg chart notes "capitulation". I disagree.
On a short-term basis the Bloomberg chart does indeed look like a serious selloff.
Long-term, we are not even close.
An asset-bubble, credit-bust recession is on the way.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock