Covid Tweets of Day: Infections, Projections and Some Good News

Mish

Here are some interesting Tweets from MIT Data Scientist Youyang Gu and others.

True New Daily Infections Estimate

Florida Underreporting Deaths?

Good News - Deaths May Have Hit Peak

Past Peak Also Based on Positivity Rate

Florida Deaths

Florida Forecast

Nate Silver Thread on Baseball

  • The math for baseball is fairly brutal. Right now (per @youyanggu) an estimated 2% of the US population has an active COVID-19 infection. With an average traveling party of 40 people (e.g. 30 players, 10 coaches/staff) it's going to be pretty hard to avoid outbreaks.
  • But suppose each team consists of 8 groups of 5 people (e.g. infielders, starting pitchers) who hang out together, and given current transmission rates within the US, each group has a 2% chance of having at least one member with COVID-19.
  • Note that you *can't* assume that the chances off all 40 players/coaches having COVID-19 are independent, since they're all hanging out in groups, have similar exposures, etc.
  • That means, at any given time, that about 15% of teams (or 4 of the 30 MLB clubs) would have a COVID cluster somewhere in their midst. Obviously that's very back-of- the-envelope, but it seems to roughly match what we're seeing so far.

Nate Silver Twitter Thread 

Question of the Day

Setting baseball aside for a moment, I’m interested in how you might envision these formulas as they relate to K-12 school openings involving millions of children across the country?

Mish

Comments (14)
No. 1-9
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

"Florida either has an incredibly low fatality rate (IFR), or may be underreporting deaths."

...

In De Santis we trust?

Not me.

Back in May:

"The scientist who created Florida's COVID-19 data portal wasn't just removed from her position on May 5, she was fired on Monday by the Department of Health, she said, for refusing to manipulate data."

Zardoz
Zardoz

Alternative facts from Florida? Unbelievable!

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

But Florida has the most stable genius!

tokidoki
tokidoki

Don't worry guys!! The Russians will start mass vaccination of their citizens come October. But because the vaccine doesn't have a cool name associated with it like "Operation Warp Speed", even if it's effective, the American media will do its part in making sure that it's treated the same as hydroxychloroquine.

Jackn
Jackn

This is becoming political. Ten states account for 112000 deaths. the remaining forty two have 43000 or an average of 1000. A number of states have less than 500. I included GA and AR both of which have less than 4000.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Problem with how daily death rates are often calculated/presented:

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Regarding Schools and baseball: it would help if people understand that those without morbid health conditions who are under 60 really have almost nothing to worry about. Indeed, the sooner they get it and pass it around, that much sooner any threat will dissipate as virus virulence degrades with exposure and so-called 'herd immunity' kicks in. Panicking every time someone tests positive has been encouraged for political reasons, not medical, and the question raised in this post essentially enables that sort of cowardice-based attitude. It's about time people start waking up to all this instead of going along with so much fear-inducing brainwashing. Americans used to have more confidence, clarity, optimism and weren't so easy to fool. (Although considering how they fell for the 'Pearl Harbour Surprise Attack' fable, maybe I'm wrong!)

Those who have cause to worry should be on Zinc and HCQ prophylactically already, as should all professional athletes. Again, though, misinformation at the service of nefarious political ends is ruling the roost these days.

magoomba
magoomba

It is a nanovirus. When fully distributed Bill Gates will activate it via 5G signal.
Then everyone will have to purchase regular updates or face unthinkable consequences.
It is based on a tried and true business model.


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