Covid Tracking Project: How Long to 1 Million US Cases?

Mish

The Covid Tracking Project offers data downloads. I created the above chart from their data.

Covid Tracking Project

Inquiring minds are investigating a relatively new data feed from the Covid Tracking Project.

I plot four data series for the US: Negative tests, positive tests,hospitalized, and deaths.

Hospitalizations

Arguably, hospitalizations are the most significant column but the project only has two days worth of data.

Once I have another data point or two, I will plot a trendline manually.

Trendlines

  • At the current pace, the number of positive coronavirus cases would hit 100,000 on March 26, and 1,000,000 on April 3.
  • At the current pace, the number of coronavirus deaths would hit 1,000 on March 26, and 10,000 on April 5.

Those are not my projections, those are observations of what would happen if the current trends last that long at the same pace.

Goldman Projects GDP Decline Worse Than Great Depression

On March 20, I reported Goldman Projects a Catastrophic GDP Decline Worse than Great Depression

Key Points

  1. Goldman Sachs economists forecast a historically sharp and swift recession, with second-quarter GDP sinking a stunning 24% after a 6% decline in the first quarter.
  2. The economists had expected a decline of 5% in the second quarter, after a flat first quarter but they said social distancing measures have affected many sectors of the economy and will hit the first and second quarter hard.
  3. The economists still expect a spring back in the third quarter, of 12%, but they see unemployment peaking at 9%.

Morgan Stanley -31% Annualized GDP in the Second Quarter

If you open up the article it sounds impossibly rosy.

Morgan Stanley economists said the coronavirus will inflict a deeper recession on the U.S. than previously expected, including a record 30.1% drop in gross domestic product in the second quarter.

Less than a week since forecasting a 4% contraction in April through June, the economists led by Ellen Zentner said they now anticipated a steeper drop and that unemployment will average 12.8% and consumption will fall 31% in the quarter.

The Morgan Stanley team predicts GDP will fall 2.4% in the current quarter, but will begin to recover in the third quarter. Overall, they project the U.S. economy to contract 2.3% on a fourth quarter to fourth quarter basis in 2020, taking full-year global growth down to just 0.3%.

A 30% decline in a quarter but year-over-year almost even!

What the hell are they thinking? Or Smoking?

9% of the US Has Been Laid Off Due to the Coronavirus

A SurveyUSA poll shows 9% of the US Has Been Laid Off Due to the Coronavirus

I crunched the numbers based on those poll stats and come up with a U3 unemployment rate of 12% and a U6 rate of 39.7%. See the link for details and calculations.

Conclusion: Goldman is way too optimistic on the unemployment rate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (101)
No. 1-30
Greggg
Greggg

Curious-Cat
Curious-Cat

"What the hell are they thinking? Or Smoking?"

I suspect they are always late with the bad news because they don't want to spook the markets any more than they already are. But I could be wrong.

Stuki
Stuki

Going from 100,000 to 1mill positives in 8 days, would require the ability to test 100K+ daily...... And that is, assuming you bat 100% with your tests.

New confirmed cases will likely be limit locked by testing ability very soon, if those trends continue.

Once that happens, you don't know who is infected. A week after 4/3, with similar growth rates, you won't know more than a few % of infecteds...

Meaning, there is no other way of getting in front of it, than a full blown Wuhan intensity lockdown. Tight enough to where you can almost mathematically guarantee that all possible contagion pathways are closed. Maintained without exception until all those locked down, are either dead, or have been recovered long enough to no longer be contagious.

Anything less intense, and you'll never catch up, but at best hang on to the tail slowing the carnage down a bit, while at the same time dragging it out even longer.

njbr
njbr

<img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETweUXIWAAAmzSP?format=png&name=small" alt="Image"/>

Latest NYC Covid-19 numbers: 10,764 positive cases, 99 deaths

Borough breakdown:
BK: 3,154 cases
Q: 3,050
M: 2,324
BX: 1,564
SI: 666

At least 1,800 people are hospitalized, with at least 450 people in the ICU.

njbr
njbr

1,000,000? How about 100,000,000?

....Ventilators. Masks. Gowns. Gloves. Swabs. Health-care equipment large and small — all lifesaving — is in extremely short supply as American hospitals prepare to be overwhelmed by the coronavirus.

There’s a drastic wartime tool at President Trump’s disposal to try to get hospitals what they need, but Trump has been reluctant to use it despite bipartisan pressure. After saying he had invoked it, he said Saturday he wouldn’t. It’s not clear why.

The Defense Production Act would allow Trump to push U.S. manufacturers such as automakers and clothing companies to pivot to making medical equipment for hospitals and medical workers who say they are out of equipment or will be soon to treat the expected onslaught of coronavirus patients....

Donny DF Trump doesn't understand the logarithmic rate of change thing...

Anda
Anda

Mish - still same page blocking on Android browsers. Only way round I have found ( without testing every browser on the market ), is to load firefox browser with NoScript blocker (Tor has similar also). Set default no script as everything disallowed, then as page loads set maven.io and moneymaven.io as trusted, with only script and fetch allowed in trusted. If you set all permissions as trusted for the site, it blocks also on firefox.

njbr
njbr

CALABASAS, CA (WENY) -- Discount tool and equipment retailer Harbor Freight is joining the fight against COVID-19.

The retailer announced it will donate its entire supple of personal protective equipment (PPE) items to front line hospitals with 24 hour emergency rooms in areas where there is a Harbor Freight store.

The PPE items being donated include:

  • N95 masks
  • Face shields
  • 5 and 7 mil Nitrile gloves

Hospitals with 24 hour ER departments are asked to contact Harbor Freight with the information needed to determine if a donation can be made. Requests cannot be made at local Harbor Freight stores or call centers.

In an email, owner and founder of Harbor Freight tools, Eric Smidt says, ". America depends on these heroes every day and in the days ahead we will depend on them even more. At Harbor Freight, we want them to know that they can depend on us too (...) Although we certainly won’t have enough of these supplies to fill everyone’s needs, we’re going to donate everything we’ve got. We also recognize that there are so many other critically important people responding to this crisis and that there is need everywhere. We’ve chosen to focus our efforts on hospitals with a 24 hour emergency room with the hope that we can help as many people as possible right now."

Hospital procurement offices should click here to submit a request.

_will
_will

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBB9bA-gXL4 - the doomers are out in full force but remember that this virus has been circulating since early January in the states. Naive exponential models say the health care system should already have melted down. It's very likely the virus is much less deadly than thought, most people already got it, had little or no symptoms and never thought anything of it. Or even if they were sick, didn't go to the hospital. Until recently testing wasn't available, so even if they had a severe case it wouldn't have been noted.

njbr
njbr

.
@realDonaldTrump
confirms he’s offered COVID19 tests to North Korea, Iran and other countries suffering from pandemic

Mish
Mish

Editor

"Naive exponential models say the health care system should already have melted down."

Yet another fool does not understand the exponential models.

Not a one of them said the health care system should have "already" melted down - but Italy is on the verge now

The US will be there in a few more doubles but the model does NOT predict that. It only says we will be there IF the path continues as it has.

Perhaps it doesn't. But idiots still dismiss the chance it will.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"At least 1,800 people are hospitalized, with at least 450 people in the ICU."

This is precisely the problem, not the deaths

Jojo
Jojo

The tide is turning. Many big "names" are coming out of the woodwork, saying that stopping the economy is not an acceptable solution to COVID-19. Friedman below writes expansively on how to get the economy going again. Meanwhile, Trump issued a tweet on Sunday hinting that he will end the lockdown within the next 2 weeks (probably because he realizes that the longer it goes on, the lower his chances of being reelected)

A Plan to Get America Back to Work
Some experts say it can be done in weeks, not months — and the economy and public health are at stake.
By Thomas L. Friedman
March 22, 2020

These are days that test every leader — local, state and national. They are each being asked to make huge life and death decisions, while driving through a fog, with imperfect information, and everyone in the back seat shouting at them. My heart goes out to them all. I know they mean well. But as so many of our businesses shut down and millions begin to be laid off, some experts are beginning to ask: “Wait a minute! What the hell are we doing to ourselves? To our economy? To our next generation? Is this cure — even for a short while — worse than the disease?’’

I share these questions. Our leaders are not flying completely blind: They are working off the advice of serious epidemiologists and public health experts. Yet we still need to be careful about “group think,’’ which is a natural but dangerous reaction when responding to a national and global crisis. We’re making decisions that affect the whole country and our entire economy — therefore, small errors in navigation could have huge consequences.

....

crazyworld
crazyworld

A PLAN TO GET AMERICA BACK TO WORK

Very simple find a drug which prevent most of the severe cases to happen. So the pandemic could follow its curse like a bad cold or flu we get each year and hospitals will be less loaded with critical cases.. Also with a milder outcome the consumers fear will be alleviated.

Nobody has found that drug so far. But every country is searching and a preventive drug could be discovered and proved reliable any month now. It could be chloroquine (preventively) or Garlic extract raw or fermented (Korean eat that everyday, and Japanese use that a lot as well) or curry (India) or preferably for labs some patentable molecule. That could reduce containment measures a lot and allow resuming most service activities.
Some Asian countries have less critical cases and less death than others but they contain anyway to some extends (quarantine, direct closure of a factory (temporarily for cleaning) when infected people are detected, and more), because they have to still treat the patients with serious symptoms in their hospitals in order not for those to become critical and eventually die..
I am still looking at the results China is getting each time they try to suppress containment measures. No encouraging results so far.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

"What the hell are they thinking? Or Smoking?"

...

Exactly.

The economy is CRATERING NOW. There will be no quick bounce back as many many small businesses will be wiped out ... along with the zombie corporations. It will take years to rebuild.

Did not watch too much tv this weekend, but what "experts" I saw predicted a "light switch" V of economy when virus passes ... of course, stated and / or implied - Don't Sell ... RE / stocks / whatever will be back to old valuations within a few years.

Dead wrong. Deflation on tap.

Realist
Realist

This is all so familiar.

All around the world you have the vast majority of professionals, scientists and medical experts explaining to the public why this Coronavirus is a serious problem and what should be done to solve it.

And you have a small percentage of the public completely ignoring them, because they don’t believe it. One of their objections is that in order to deal with this problem, it will hurt the economy. So stop trying to solve this fake problem.

Then, to try to “prove” it is a fake problem, they seek out the handful of “experts” who will provide some kind of “evidence” that it is not really a problem.

Ignore the real scientists.

Promote anyone who can find a way to disagree with them.

Where have I seen this before? Oh yeah. Global warming.

Déjà vu, all over again.

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Its not just global warming. There are many that believe vaccines cause autism so that begs the question, when a vaccine for covad is developed are these people going to take it or not? If large enough numbers dont take it, then covad will be with us forever.

WildBull
WildBull

As long as industry is stepping up voluntarily, the orange one's tactics are correct. If it isn't distributed, it doesn't scale. Better to have thousands of minds working on this than to have central planners at the federal level deciding who builds what. Central planning has been so successful over the last 100 years or so. (NOT!!!) Better to have a horse race to see who can build the most ventilators the fastest.

MiTurn
MiTurn

This guy is a Nobel Prize winner (chemistry) and his take on the course of the outbreak is compelling. He seems to think it will be over sooner than later (say, weeks, not months). A thought anyhow.

Now, how does this effect the markets and the economy? We don't know. But getting this over with sooner will always be better than later.

WildBull
WildBull

The good thing about the war powers law is that the FDA will have its wings clipped in its power to pick winners and losers. I'm convinced that the FDA impeded test development in order to favor certain vendors.

ohno
ohno

So today Trump is talking about easing restrictions and getting people back to work??????? WTF! On friday Kansas City had a big news conference telling everyone that rumors of a lockdown were bogus and to turn anyone in that is spreading misinfo. On saturday Kansas City announced lockdown(the typical limited scope). LOL experts at building trust for sure. Of course, now that they have open ended qe maybe they dont care if we go out and die? I'll stop speculating only me will tell.

awc13
awc13

how long before america gets to 1,000,000?

SK has ~1/6 the population of the USA. how long before SK gets to 1/6th of 1,000,000? or about 170,000? they are leading the USA in this whole thing. they are currently at 8,000 and change.

djh860
djh860

Because they are sending test kits first to highly infected locations, the number infected and more importantly the percentage infected will make Covid 19 look like a super bug. Later when testing is more broadly available it will come back down to earth. They we will realize that chicken little was in charge all along .

AWC
AWC

58,000,000 by April 25, if the gumnut doesn’t cook the books, ala the CCP. Of course, there’s always “Don’t Test Don’t Tell.”

Aside, my daughter has been trying to open a Colorado unemployment claim, but website doesn’t work. Guess Trump sent the relief money to North Korea?

NewUlm
NewUlm

This not raw numbers pandemic, demographics MATTER and health matters. Basically, if you are under 50 (or health in your 50s) with no co-morbidity the mortality rate will be .01-.02%, which in the H1N1 range and then you will have immunity - and if you don't have immunity than NO vaccine will ever work. It's the 60+ and those with high blood pressure, diabetes, COPD and heart issues that will clog the hospitals.

I can't say I am a huge fan of Isreal, but they looked at the demographic numbers, what it takes to get immunity and have a better plan: https://youtu.be/uGl1YydafxY

Also, with the number - we have empirical evidence from Diamond Princess that 30% of cases, even an aged demographic are asymptomatic and study of kids out of Wuhan show nearly 50% will be asymptomatic - shutting down everyone will slow down the issue, but hospitals will be clogged just the same, 6 wks down the road - because we really never know who has it.

Then, we should put healthy folks back to work and send kids to school, and MASSIVELY support those who have to bug in, it would be waaay cheaper than the Trillion a month we are going to spend badly with current efforts.

Helene84
Helene84

I think the Netherlands has the right approach. Let the young and healthy get infected and build immunity while keeping the old and infirm under quarantine. It is unlikely that this virus can be contained for long without extremely draconian measures. But if you keep children quarantined for the year or two it will take to get the population vaccinated, they are not getting exposed to the germs that they need to build up their immune systems. We will end up with a generation at higher risk of bad infections. Also, what if Covid mutates into something more dangerous to young people, like the the Spanish Flu did? We will wish they had gotten this strain.

egilkinc
egilkinc

How long to 1 Billion cases worldwide?

rg50
rg50

Unfortunately, we are already past 1 million positive in US. We are 40k that are confirmed a week ago. Harvard Med believes the real # is whatever the confirmed multiply by 50 .. that's the number a week ago..

rg50
rg50

You no longer can rely on real numbers for Covid 19 as they aren't testing anyone unless they are critically ill.

BillinCA
BillinCA

Regarding the trajectory of US cases, I thought that China was on the same path last month and I was sure they'd hit 100,000 and then 1 million shortly after. Then, quite unexpectedly to me (and others), the line curved and is now sideways. They never hit 100,000 confirmed cases. I am curious how the US chart above compares to the same data at the same point in time (say 100 or 500 cases) as cases in China and when we might (hope) for a bend in the trend. (I understand that data from China is suspect, but there are few credible sources who doubt the Chinese change in infected trajectory)

Herkie
Herkie

How Long to 1 Million US Cases?

Is this a pool Mish because if it is I will put a tenner on March 28.


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