Covid Tracking Project and Tweets of the Day

Mish

Fortunately, we see a change in the slope of hospitalizations and deaths for the better.

Despite the favorable change in the slope of hospitalizations and deaths, we are still looking at some pretty grim statistics unless we quickly see further changes for the better.

IF the current trends continue, we are looking at 100,000 cumulative hospitalizations by April 11 (call it mid-month) and 100,000 deaths by April 21 (call it end of the month).

I suspect we will see more slope changes, yet I am pessimistic about states late to the lockdown party like Florida and Texas.

I wonder if the 100,000 to 200,000 death forecast by Dr. Anthony Fauci is purposely high. Why? So Trump can brag about a glorious victory of only 60,000 to 100,000 total deaths.

Regardless, I will be optimistic and take a stab at 50,000 deaths by early May. If so, the total count will be on the low end, say 80,000 to 100,00. But that is for the front part of the year. We are likely to see a recurrence in the fall, hopefully at a more containable rate.

The 50,000 by May 1 is optimistic vs some projections.

Covid-19 Total Deaths Projections

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Covid 19 Projections Deaths Per Day

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The above charts are from Covid19 Projections

The COVID-19 projections assume full social distancing through May 2020.

I rather doubt that but I hope we do good enough.

Trump Backs Firing of Captain Brett Crozier

What did Crozier do?

He sent a coronavirus plea for health. Hundreds of his crew were infected and social distancing was impossible.

What About Recurrence?

Europe Became the Hub

Nate Silver Chimes In

US Impounds Shipment of Masks

Doubles

New Jersey, Florida, and Michigan are the most troubling.

Florida expected due to the huge delays by the Florida governor. He did not even close the beaches.

Mislabeled Pneumonia Cases

Underreporting of Covid deaths is massive.

Watch Florida

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On April 1, I noted Florida Governor Finally Restricts Movement To Essential Services.

My comment was "Watch this Circle"

For details on the firing of Captain Brett Crozier, please see Nightmare at Sea: Aircraft Carrier Needs Help as Social Distancing Impossible.

Capt. Crozier said that the ship’s close quarters rendered the carrier unable to comply with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for social distancing. He wrote that close quarters, shared meals and bathroom spaces are “most conducive” to the spread of the virus.

I consider Crozier a hero for trying to protect his crew. Instead, he was fired, and Trump supports the move.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (95)
No. 1-28
RonJ
RonJ

Earlier, i read that some 100,000 people had signed onto a petition to reinstate Captain Crozier.

I don't think Russia or China is going to start a war with the U.S. just because a number of military have contracted CV-19 and are temporarily out of action. The firing is an over reaction.

abend237-04
abend237-04

And you would be dead wrong on this one, Mish. His mistake was stupidly trying to leverage friendly media to bolster a good case, without expecting massive and immediate blowback. How many captains in a 600 ship navy would be likely to use similar media leverage in the coming few months when their crews become similarly infected? About 240 by my estimate, roughly the political split in the country. The Pentagon had no choice, thanks to a politically stupid, full bird, Captain.

Sechel
Sechel

I think Captain Crozier will go down as a hero. Situation was out of control. He never leaked to the media. He's being criticized for distributing his plea to widely. I don't think we're getting the full story. Him not contacting his commanding officer who was on the ship is too obvious an oversight. There's a story there. I'm sure of it. I read Crozier's letter. It doesn't seem like he cc'd the world and it was extremely professional.

Trump may have instituted a travel ban from China on January 31st but by then 300,000 Chinese had already traveled to the U.S. during the previous month. Deputy national security adviser Matthew Pottinger was also pushing for a wider travel ban including Italy and other nations already experiencing covid 19 but Mnuchin and others pushed back. The economy was more important. It would take over a month before the European travel ban was put into place. Pandora was already out of the box.

I highly recommend today's Washington Post for a timeline on the virus response.

abend237-04
abend237-04

A veritable frenzy of predictably vacuous bullshit from Sechel, "Him not contacting his commanding officer who was on the ship is too obvious an oversight. There's a story there. I'm sure of it."
So am I. The story is that when a U.S. Navy Rear Admiral hears you out, disagrees on course of action for whatever reason(s), and tells you to back off, You don't sullenly slink off to roll your own plan via media hacks. DOA, career...well deserved.

Wmjack50
Wmjack50

Chain of Command---must be followed --The bed rock of the military--

Sechel
Sechel

The geek in me is appreciating the transition model. Fauci , I believe, made the point today of not looking at deaths or hospitalizations for seeing if we're turning the corner but rather new infections. Reminds me of the mortgage transition model, delinquency, foreclosure , reo, liquidation. we could see deaths spike but new infections decrease during the next two weeks. I wonder if the media is savvy enough to report on that accurately if and when that does occur.

RonJ
RonJ

Zero Hedge: "Some governors take a firm line against a state-wide 'one size fits all' approach fearing decimation of local economies..."

10 million people are out of work already. ZH: "By the New York Times' numbers, some 311 million people have been urged to stay home in at least 41 states."

Also from ZH: "Tucker Carlson On Fauci's Quarantine Call: Pushing "National Suicide" While He Has Job Security"

Sucharit Bhakdi, Emeritis of Medical Microbiology, in Germany, said similar of what is occurring Germany, in an open video letter to Merkle. "The reason for my concern lies above all in the truly unforeseeable socio-economic consequences of the drastic containment measures which are currently being applied in large parts of Europe and which are also already being practiced on a large scale in Germany."

KS123
KS123

njbr
njbr

I'm curious about the sharp peaks and falls in the projected illness rates. The transmission in hot and humid weather is pretty good from what is being seen in the southern hemisphere so a seasonal drop to near zero seems to be pretty naive. Or is this an attempt to show the effect of on or off shutdown? The reality is we have a variety of outbreaks going on right now in different parts of the US so one curve will not fit all.

Snow_Dog
Snow_Dog

“Personally, I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good. Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!“
~ Professor John Oxford of Queen Mary University London, one of the world’s leading virologists and influenza specialists, 2 April 2020.

njbr
njbr

Re: reoccurence tweet.

This graph relates to a theoretical process of triggering more intense suppression strategies in the UK based on numbers of ICU cases and has absolutely NOTHING to due with the forecast of the progression of the disease in the US. The text under the graph is supposed to read....

Figure 4: Illustration of adaptive triggering of suppression strategies in GB, for R0=2.2, a policy of all four interventions considered, an “on” trigger of 100 ICU cases in a week and an “off” trigger of 50 ICU cases. The policy is in force approximate 2/3 of the time. Only social distancing and school/university closure are
triggered; other policies remain in force throughout. Weekly ICU incidence is shown in orange, policy triggering in blue.

ANYONE using that "peak and valley" chart except for "what-if speculation" doesn't know what they are looking at.

The study also says...

Given that mitigation is unlikely to be a viable option without overwhelming healthcare systems,suppression is likely necessary in countries able to implement the intensive controls required. Our projections show that to be able to reduce R to close to 1 or below, a combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required (Figure 3, Table 4). Measures are assumed to be in place for a 5-month duration.

Let that sink in--5 month duration.

5 MONTH DURATION !!!

Primob45
Primob45

Mosh, he was fired because he sent out a bunch of copies and one was leaked. If he had kept his concerns contained to the chain of command, he’d still have his job. King of low of you to leave out all the information.

Snow_Dog
Snow_Dog

“Capt. Crozier said that the ship’s close quarters rendered the carrier unable to comply with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for social distancing.”

A civilian agency issued guidelines that a Navy officer interpreted as a military order? Said officer is relieved of duty.

He failed to recognize who is in his chain-of-command and what he was supposed to comply with. Any enlisted recruit fresh out of basic training should know better.

DBG8489
DBG8489

Regarding the Navy captain.

Nobody - and I mean nobody - reaches the rank of captain in the Navy without knowing the consequences they will incur for violating the chain of command. It's not possible that he "didn't know what was going to happen" or that he "didn't know the letter would leak."

Based on that, I have to assume that he did what he did with full knowledge that he was going to be relieved.

There could be a million reasons why he decided to do it now. When I was in, I witnessed other officers and senior NCOs do similar things when a long line of abuses and idiocy eventually reached the proverbial straw that finally broke the camel's back.

As I said in my other post, I would hope that he did it out of a sense of duty and loyalty to those under his command. But it's also possible he did it for personal gain.

In any case, the reality is that none of us were there when he made the decision so none of us know. Only time will tell.

And for those of you pitching a fit about "following orders no matter what" - I would wager that either you never personally served, or if you did, you never led men in combat.

Nothing is ever cut and dry on a battlefield and no plan - no matter how well written and planned - survives first contact with the enemy.

numike
numike

"Who can look at anything any more...a door handle, a cardboard carton, a bag of vegetables...without imagining it swarming with those unseeable, undead, unliving blobs...waiting to fasten themselves on to our lungs?... Who among us is not a quack epidemiologist, virologist, statistician and prophet? Which scientist or doctor is not secretly praying for a miracle? Which priest is not...secretly, at least...submitting to science? The virus has...struck hardest, thus far, in the richest, most powerful nations of the world, bringing the engine of capitalism to a juddering halt... The mandarins who are managing this pandemic are fond of speaking of war... But if it really were a war, then who would be better prepared than the US? If it were not masks and gloves that its frontline soldiers needed, but guns, smart bombs...fighter jets and nuclear bombs, would there be a shortage?... The tragedy is immediate, real, epic and unfolding before our eyes. But it isn’t new. It is the wreckage of a train that has been careening down the track for years... What is this thing that has happened to us? It’s a virus, yes. In and of itself it holds no moral brief. But it is definitely more than a virus... It has made the mighty kneel and brought the world to a halt like nothing else could. Our minds are still racing back and forth, longing for a return to 'normality', trying to stitch our future to our past and refusing to acknowledge the rupture. But the rupture exists. And in the midst of this terrible despair, it offers us a chance to rethink the doomsday machine we have built for ourselves. Nothing could be worse than a return to normality. Historically, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew. This one is no different. It is a portal, a gateway between one world and the next. We can choose to walk through it, dragging the carcasses of our prejudice and hatred, our avarice, our data banks and dead ideas, our dead rivers and smoky skies behind us. Or we can walk through lightly, with little luggage, ready to imagine another world. And ready to fight for it."

wootendw
wootendw

Crozier probably knew he'd be fired but that, otherwise, the higher ups would never listen. And the men would still be on the ship.

BTW, We're not supposed to be at war.

wootendw
wootendw

Most everywhere in the country is in forced shutdown now and voluntarily so, elsewhere. There is talk about things getting even tighter with the Washington bunch involved.

Up until now, this has been worrisome to me - a police state.

Actually, this could turn out much more like Atlas Shrugging - something I've been dreaming about for decades. 'Our' government believes it needs US - but it's the other way around.

Bring on the shutdown. Those who can choose, choose not to do income-producing work. Or just do less.

Don't risk your health by working too much; take time off without pay (or income withholding). Watch the Washington regime crumble.

Ayn Rand fantasized it. Alan Greenspan was one of her disciples. What does he think about the effects of the shutdown in comparison with Atlas Shrugged?

michiganmoon
michiganmoon

There really is a breakdown of confidence at all levels of our officials for me.

The WHO was in February criticizing mild travel restrictions as being counter-productive and stigmatizing to Asians. The WHO can't help but agree with every Chinese propaganda that comes out. Can't even say Taiwan's name. Buy all of their BS numbers.

Trump has been a bully and moron most of the time. He can't do a press conference without attacking the media or making a joke about how he has done models. He downplayed it as the common flu and a lot of people took his lead.

My governor Whitmer has been an indecisive idiot. Sending out contradictory messages to teachers on what they can and can't do and finally sending out a confusing final order 3 weeks after following Ohio's lead to close schools. Saying she will punish any doctor who prescribes the medication Trump touted to blaming the federal government just 4 days later for not getting that medication to our state.

Healthcare experts from masks don't work, to masks only prevent the wearer from spreading it, but doesn't help the wearer, to N95 masks aren't really any better than regular masks, to N95 masks are better and they work and you can't have them only doctors can.

Xi is a typical lying dictator.

What major world leader looks to have done a superb job? Conte? Johnson? Trudeau? Merkel? Macron?

Biden got loud cheers from a campaign stop on January 31st for saying travel restrictions were xenophobic and would cause more spreading.

Obama saw the N95 masks in the national stockpile depleted 75% in his first year in office due to the swine flu and over 7 years never sought to restock it.

Even Fauci said asinine things like this was no threat when it was obvious to most of Mish's readers it was.

I have no confidence in our leaders.

DaveH2
DaveH2

I'm skeptical about the drop-off in hospitalizations because hospitals are hitting capacity limits. Just look at the patient-crowded hallways in bad areas.

Just going outside has become scarier every day in upstate NY. Yesterday had nice weather and most people thought it would be a good day for yard work. I saw an old man by the convenience store across the street from me with a younger woman who was yelling at him to move along with her as he stood gripping a signpost. After about 20 minutes he made it about 20 feet and it was ambulance time. Nobody wants to believe how bad and sudden the virus is, but it's doing what it does anyway.

thimk
thimk

China's belt and road/global mercantilism initiative a huge virus transmission vector.
let's enter wayback machine to 2017 . "the belt and road is how " cough ,cough

abend237-04
abend237-04

"Personally - I don't give a damn about anything other than it is clear he was concerned for the crew. Fuck the military chain of command. I would have been booted out day 1."
Since no one else apparently disagrees with this, I feel compelled to call it pure bullshit.
Had Grant held similar concern for "the crew" after Cold Harbor, we'd be two countries now. He just went alone to his tent and cried.
The murderous bastards atop the CCP in Beijing were no doubt watching this episode with keen interest, as was Moscow.
The question: Can a key branch of the U.S. military be effectively disarmed by a virus?... has at least been temporarily answered with NO.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Cases are progressing about according to my projections, but deaths aren't going up quite as fast as I projected. We are still track to hit 20k by the middle of the month, which will equal the regular flu. It definitely appears that the shelter at home orders, lockdowns, and social distancing are getting the job done. It is looking likely that we may stay under 100k deaths by the end of May. That, of course, will cause the naysayers to foolishly say "see, we didn't need to shut things down", not realizing that the low number of deaths was ONLY because things were shut down.

It also doesn't address what will happen after May. The models show it dropping to zero, but I think that is very unrealistic. They will open the economy somewhat, and that will bring more deaths. From May onward will be a balancing act, how much must they restrict the economy, versus how many deaths are acceptable.

Tengen
Tengen

FYI Crozier has now tested positive for Covid-19. Talk about adding insult to injury!

Sechel
Sechel

New insight into the firing of Captain Crozier from Sunday night's press conference along with reporting by the ny times. President Trump was displeased with the captain’s actions and let the Navy know — a sentiment Trump made very public on Saturday when he lashed out at the captain. Crozier's error was that his action ran counter to the narrative that Trump wanted out there, that everything is under control.

Modly , who fired Crozier moved up the command after Esper forced out the controversial firing of the previous #2 over the Navy Seal incident. Would Crozier have been fired if Trump had remained neutral and indicated his displeasure? We see how this administration works.

kram
kram

And now the captain himself has tested positive, indicating that things are indeed serious within the ship. Perhaps Trump should also test positive so he starts understanding that everything everyone says or does is not a political game against him.

Sechel
Sechel

Thomas Modly is sounding like a stooge. This sounds extremely unprofessional. It's a policy of public humiliation. Whether this was Moldy's personal idea or directed by the President. It's beyond poor management

In remarks that were piped over the vessel's PA system, Modly suggested Crozier leaked the memo on purpose or was "too naive or too stupid" to be in command if he didn't think that sending it to over 20 people would not result in it getting out to the public.

"If he didn't think, in my opinion, that this information wasn't going to get out to the public, in this day and information age that we live in, then he was either A, too naïve or too stupid to be a commanding officer of a ship like this," Modly said. "The alternative is that he did this on purpose."
Modly went on to say it was a "betrayal of trust, with me, with his chain of command."

Sechel
Sechel

The idea that the letter to higher ups was Crozier's first response is absurd. Something went wrong in the chain of command forcing Crozier to conclude that he needed to write that letter. Now Trump's getting involved, but Trump was already involved. The reason why Crozier was fired is because Trump weighed in.


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