Covid Tracking Project and Tweets of the Day

Mish

Let's tune in to the latest data from the Covid Tracking Project and Tweets on the Coronavirus in general.

There has been some flattening of the curves as well as an interesting but not unexpected development: Hospitalizations lag cases and deaths lag hospitalizations.

The latter is more reliable as the former is a function of the number of tests. But tests or not, if people get sick enough, they go to the hospital and a portion of them will die.

It is the hospitalization trend that matters most.

I may work on a hospitalization chart next as the Covid Tracking Projects recently added new data items including ICU cases and current vs total hospitalizations.

It is current hospitalizations and ICU data that I believe will predict the trend of future deaths.

The Covid Tracking Project does a brilliant job even though it is hard for me to keep up with format changes.

On Ventilators in New Jersey

A Word About Masks

Testing Stepping Up

More tests is a good thing.

Sobering Situation

Important Thread on Antibody Tests

Overwhelmed Hospitals

Sad to say we have overwhelmed hospitals.

Deaths in the Netherlands

The same is undoubtedly happening in Sweden, Italy, India, and even the US, but especially China.

No one in their right mind believes data from China.

Comment of the Day

I still have people emailing and even commenting on my website that this is No Worse Than the Flu™ .

I have had enough of this nonsense. Hospitals are overflowing and short of ventilators.

Forget about Sweden, or better yet compare Sweden to Trump's early comments about the US.

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By any chance does anyone recall Trump's proclamation: "We have 15 cases soon to be zero"?

Check it out. 15 soon to be zero is now over 30,000 cases and 7,000 deaths.

Global Coronavirus Cases

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Price of Ignorance

There is a price to be paid for ignorance, and the US is paying it now.

New York is US ground zero today.

Ground zero tomorrow will come in states where foolish governors did too little, too late.

Yet, despite the obvious trends, foolish people still persist with nonsensical this is No Worse Than the Flu™ comparisons.

If by some miracle, things turns out better than the current path we seem to be on, it will only be due to the measures we take today, not because fools spreading fake news have any idea what they are talking about.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (110)
No. 1-34
NormGriffin
NormGriffin

The chart shows ~100,000 deaths by 4/21. Just want to make sure I am reading this correctly.

wootendw
wootendw

"No Worse Than the Flu"

It is far more contagious. Even cats can get it from humans. It is new so human evolution has not produced thousands of years of resistance to it.

Is it actually more deadly than flu once one becomes infected? Don't know yet.

Should everything be shut down until the FDA approves a vaccine? Horrifying to think this might happen.

Realist
Realist

Two weeks ago, the mortality rate for closed cases on Worldometer was 10%. At the time, I suggested that this high rate would drop much lower as more cases were closed. Instead the rate has crept up to 21%! I am not suggesting that the overall mortality rate will be 21% or even 10%. I still expect 1% to 3% in the long run. However, watching this percentage go up so dramatically is very disturbing. The flu mortality rate is 0.1%. This is not the flu. It is far worse.

tokidoki
tokidoki

I've said it again and again. We are the US. We go big or we go home. In this case, we go home BIG.

njbr
njbr

So, no real quantities of spare PPE or ventilators, some hospitals beginning to break already, the rising cases in warm countries put the lie to the idea of a summer break to regroup--all of those point to deaths being higher than expected due to increasing pressure on the medical system and medical workers.

And no, we really can't blame Trump for any of this--he's only had 15 days to react to this crisis. Never fear, though, Kushner's here!! It's his PPE and ventilators, by the way. Don't bitch about the moldy masks like Alabama got--you won't get more by talking like that.

Schaap60
Schaap60

"The same is undoubtedly happening in Sweden, Italy, India, and even the US, but especially China."

Yes, I've read a mayor in Bergamo was saying that only 30% of the increase in deaths from last year are attributable to COVID patients. How many of the additional 70% of deaths were COVID and never diagnosed?

Everyone talking about comorbidity being the cause of death ignore all the deaths that aren't counted to begin with. This is all a humanitarian and economic disaster and I don't pretend to know how to mitigate that disaster.

tokidoki
tokidoki

Business is not returning to normal:

A preview of what's to come in the US. Hospitality is pretty much done till an effective vaccine is found.

DBG8489
DBG8489

"Ground zero tomorrow will come in states where foolish governors did too little, too late."

Exactly!

This is an issue I have seen other places online and in conversations with friends and colleagues. Everyone is looking at New York and the northeast in general as if it is the whole of the United States and assuming that once it's over there, it's over everywhere and life can get back to normal.

That simply is not the case.

The United States is a very spread out collection of major population centers - each one of which is NOT at the same point on the timeline as New York. Some of them are days - or weeks behind. And each of them will have their own "private" curves that will need to be "flattened".

Just because your state - or more specifically your population center - hasn't gone cluster, cluster, boom yet doesn't mean you have escaped. It means you're still in line.

Given that reality, and the fact that in all of human history, we have never developed a true cure for a virus and only have effective vaccines for a very small percentage of them, I see no way that we are "done with all this" by June or even July. Thanksgiving may not even be off the table.

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

That Zachary Binney twitter link in the post is wonderful!

In contrast, the news media, with their journalism level of numeracy, talks of medical tests without reporting sensitivity and specificity (Yeah, TP/FP/TN/FN raw numbers would be nice, but let's not get greedy.)

Contrast that with the impression news articles give that these various C19 tests have sensitivity and specificity of 100.0000000%.

Speaking of numeracy, this link:

explains the very important, non-intuitive logic behind the "Well, sort of" in that Twitter post.

bradw2k
bradw2k

Am I reading the table right and the US has five times as many active cases as France, but there are more daily deaths in France? How is that possible, do we know?

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

Obviously, the worst thing is to develop symptoms, but what if you had mild symptoms and don't know if it was corona, flu, or cold. It would be beneficial to know that you already have immunity, but after the symptoms have passed, the evidence of it will be in the blood, but not in the oral/nasal swabs. You might be in limbo until the vaccine is generally available.

GeorgeWP
GeorgeWP

One one side a lot of the dead were probably going to die soon anyway, so the impact is somewhat overstated. But yes probably a lot more are not being counted. Testing the dead is probably low priority.

WildBull
WildBull

I just saw a story on Today show this morning. They were talking about what a long haul COVID19 would be. Permanent emergency and police state on the horizon?

Montana33
Montana33

Excellent post and thank you for calling out those who compare this to the flu. If we allowed covid19 to run unabated like the flu and infect 100+ million, then we’d be obliterated.

USAFoxes
USAFoxes

This is interesting. Gotta catch it at the right stage, like Tamiflu: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZtuZYPPAzI

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

By now China should have reported over 800K cases given its population, having no initial warnings, and longest exposure to COVID19.

Frilton Miedman
Frilton Miedman

Trump's approval is slightly up, I guarantee that's short lived.

As deaths increase, sweep across America, the economic reality sets in and stimulus has long faded by November, it'll be a different America.

It will be Trump's America.

QE2Infinity
QE2Infinity

Is it permissible to compare coronavirus with the Spainish flu?

Also who is responsible for the problem in New York? Is it Trump who banned travel from China on January 31? Or, might it be Bill de Blasio who let the Chinese New Year celebration go forth? Of course this a false narrative since it is neither: shit happens, mistakes are made. No need to assign blame.

ReadyKilowatt
ReadyKilowatt

I'm getting very tired of looking at charts that some spreadsheet jockey produced without any context or relevance from poorly compiled data.

MATHGAME
MATHGAME

For NY specifically? Both ... with the mayor in the lead. The mayor of NY exercised the same brand of false bravado and politically motivated stupidity as the mayor of New Orleans did to let Mardi Gras take place.

And of course there was plenty of false bravado and stupidity to be found in all the people who participated in both events as well ... similar to that still found in all those still maintaining "No worse than the flu" ...

Unless you think that NY and NO, and even counties in S. FL previously inundated with spring breakers, leading the parade of "hot spots" in the US, are all just unfortunate unrelated coincidences?

Bring_The_Logic
Bring_The_Logic

i know someone that had classic symptoms - fever, aches, coughing, loss of sense of taste, etc. he was tested on Saturday March 28. As of today, 7 days later, still no test results.

i think the test will come back negative. samples are stable for only a few days (72 hours) So if they take a week to run the 7 day old sample, the virus may have degraded to the point of not being detectable. that wastes a test that should have been used on a fresh sample.

Thankfully he is recovering without hospitalization after 10 days. it was much worse for much longer than the regular flu.

mrusa
mrusa

British Supreme Court Justice Jonathan Sumption, "The Italian evidence suggests that in 12 per cent of deaths is it even possible to say coronavirus was the main cause of death. So yes this is serious and yes it's understandable that people cry out to the government. But the real question: Is this serious enough to warrant putting most of our population into house imprisonment, wrecking our economy for an indefinite period, destroying businesses that honest and hardworking people have taken years to build up, saddling future generations with debt, depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all, like the Health Secretary and the Prime Minister."

QE2Infinity
QE2Infinity

With public policy there is always a question of balance, which entails a cost benefit analysis. What is more difficult in this case is it entails death. Yet, it needs to be conducted. The trade is between death vs the economy. If the economic hit is too large, there could also be sizable deaths. The balance will ibe struck by trial and error as the crisis progresses. Some will like the result most won't.

It is worth pointing our that in the US 58,000 people die each and every week. Corona is pushing some of these deaths forward a few weeks or months. A tragedy on the personal front but hardly one on a national front. Also, the hysteria generated by the sensationalist media coverage is partially responsible for overwhelming the hospitals and ERs: hypochondriacs and people with colds and flu are streaming in with visions of death in their heads.

Trump is overwhelmed as any President would be. There are numerous factors to consider, and like all politicians, his re-election is at the forefront. Trump has his style and it clearly rubs some people the wrong way. Trump haters keep on focus on missteps to hammer him with gotchas. We expect this of the left-wing nutjob MSM. But we expect more from those we hold in high esteem.

QE2Infinity
QE2Infinity

With public policy there is always a question of balance. This entails a cost benefit analysis. It's more difficult in this case because it involves death. Yet it needs to be conducted. The trade is between death vs the economy. If the economic hit is too large, it could also result in sizable deaths. This trade is being conducted in real time by trial and error. No matter what the outcome, few will be happy because all options involve a loss.

It is worth pointing out that in the US 58,000 people die each and every week. Corona is pushing some of these deaths forward a few weeks or months. A tragedy on the personal front but hardly on the national front. Also, the hysteria generated by the sensationalist media coverage is partially responsible for overwhelming the hospitals and ERs with hypochondriacs and people with colds and flu.

Trump is overwhelmed as any President would be. There are numerous factors to consider, and like all politicians, his re-election is at the forefront. Trump has his style and it clearly rubs some people the wrong way. Trump haters keep on focus on his missteps to hammer him with gotchas. We expect this from the left-wing,nutjob MSM. We don't expect this from those we hold in high esteem.

RonJ
RonJ

By any chance does anyone recall Trump's proclamation: "We have 15 cases soon to be zero"?

At the time, those cases were considered to be contained. At the time, Fauci wasn't warning of what ever number of possible cases or 100,000 to 200,000 possible deaths. There was also at one time a projection of over a million to two million deaths likely. That was cut back to the current range.

QE2Infinity
QE2Infinity

Interesting factoid I just heard.

The number of deaths in March 2020 is 10,000 less than it was in March 2019. Less deaths from car accidents, less deaths from workplace accidents, etc.

Thus, if we shut the economy down for no reason whatsoever, we can save lives!

St. Funogas
St. Funogas

Can anybody find anything anywhere showing stats on coronavirus cases in the US showing cases by age breakdown and pre-existing conditions? China released a spreadsheet of 74,000 cases showing all that info but I can't find anything listing any sort of detailed info other than total deaths.

Jojo
Jojo

Flu cases till far, far in advance of CV19 cases. It's not even a real horse race at this time!

CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been:

39,000,000 – 55,000,000 flu illnesses
18,000,000 – 26,000,000 flu medical visits
400,000 – 730,000 flu hospitalizations
24,000 – 63,000 flu deaths

njbr
njbr
  1. States are buying PPE and ventilators for themselves because they can't get them from the federal government.
  2. The federal government is stopping planes on tarmacs to confiscate these shipments.
  3. The federal government is then allowing private distributors like McKesson to transport those confiscated PPE on FEMA planes to recipients determined by federal government. It's unclear what the profit mechanism for these private distributors is or how recipients are chosen.
  4. States who had their ordered supplies confiscated turn around and start asking the federal government for supplies, since theirs were confiscated.
  5. The Trump family goes on TV to say "it's the FEDERAL stockpile, not the STATE stockpile, you should have planned ahead."
Montana33
Montana33

I know of an entire household with sick people who almost certainly have coronavirus and they haven't been tested - and they won't be unless they have breathing problems. Doctors are telling people with the virus to not get tested and they are totally backlogged on test results anyway. You could be in the hospital or dead by the time they get your test results. So to your point - the counts of sick people are way off so the eventual death toll and hospitalizations will be our only valid data to watch. Sad that months into this thing that testing is still a complete disaster. We will never go back to work if we don't have testing and tracking in place. Kids will NOT be going back to school in the Fall.

thomsoni
thomsoni

Add Canada to the list of countries whosemasksfrom 3M WERE STOPPED BYTHE Trump administration .


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