Covid Records Shattered In The US and Europe

Mish

Covid hospitalizations and deaths are on the rise nationwide.

Third Surge Worsens

The Covid Tracking Project reports The Third Surge Worsens as Hospitalizations and Deaths Rise Nationwide.

  • The upswing in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continued this week, as the United States recorded the highest number of hospitalizations in almost two months.
  • Nearly 1,000 deaths from COVID-19 were reported on Wednesday alone, and that didn’t include Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, which were experiencing reporting issues. 
  • States reported 5,300 COVID-19 deaths since last Thursday, an increase of more than 10 percent week over week.
  • Hospitals across the country saw patients increase, mirroring the widespread case growth. While the Midwest remains the region of greatest concern, Texas led the nation in increased hospitalizations over the past seven days.

Covid Metrics by Week

Covid Metrics Bu Week OCT 21

North Dakota vs  San Francisco

San Francisco and North Dakota Oct 19

To get a sense of the extent of the spread of COVID-19 in North Dakota, a comparison with San Francisco is instructive. There are more people in the city of San Francisco (883,000 people in 47 sq. miles) than in the state of North Dakota (762,000 people in 70,762 sq. miles). This week, more than 5,200 people in North Dakota tested positive for the coronavirus; San Francisco counted 213. Since the pandemic began, San Francisco has recorded just over 12,000 cases and 138 deaths; North Dakota has seen 34,165 cases and 323 deaths since March. 

Hospital Data Wobbles

  • In Missouri, for example, the currently hospitalized figure has been underreported since October 17; the state links the problem to hospitals’ scrambling to keep pace with HHS requirements. 
  • Georgia, Alabama, and Florida reported only partial updates to their hospitalization counts. Some or all of these reporting deficits may be linked to HHS reporting changes, but we haven’t yet determined a definitive reason—or set of reasons—for the apparent instabilities in hospital reporting.
  • Only a few states make the actual date of testing figures available, usually well after the reported counts. This can lead to dramatic fluctuations in calculating test positivity using our data. 
  • We’re closely watching Louisiana because of a particular data quirk: Louisiana reports their long-term care data cumulatively, meaning we’re working with total numbers. It seems easy enough to assume we’d be able to track rises in this cumulative count, but unfortunately, it’s more complicated than that. Occasionally, we’ve found that a facility in the state will report cumulative COVID-19 case and death numbers one week, but the next week, those numbers might be gone, or the facility might be marked as “closed,” “not reported,” or “data pending.”
  • We’re alarmed that Florida went nearly three weeks without releasing long-term care death data, despite saying they publish numbers weekly. The state finally released data on October 22, though it’s dated October 16, reporting 599 new resident and staff deaths.

Covid Cases by Country 

Covid Cases by Country - Oct 23

The above graph from Worldometers.

Record Cases

The Wall Street Journal reports New U.S. Covid-19 Cases Top 80,000 to Reach a Single-Day Record.

The U.S. reported 83,757 new cases Friday, surpassing the previous high of 77,362 reported July 16, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Daily new-case totals have risen for five straight days.

Since the pandemic began, more than 8.49 million infections have been reported in the U.S. and more than 223,900 Americans have died, according to Johns Hopkins data. World-wide, more than 42.2 million cases have been reported, and more than 1.14 million people have died.

“We are at a critical juncture in this pandemic, particularly in the northern hemisphere,” World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news conference Friday. “The next few months are going to be very tough and some countries are on a dangerous track.”

New Cases vs Hospitalizations

New Cases vs Hospitalizations

Look at what's happening in all the states that dissed masks.

There are now more cases per 100,000 people in nonmetropolitan counties than there are in metropolitan areas, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from Johns Hopkins and the Census Bureau. That is a shift from earlier in the pandemic, when there were more cases per 100,000 people in metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan areas.

“People had hoped that in the summer it would get better, and it did for a short period, and then as we engaged in communities it increased again,” said Randall Williams, director of the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.

“If you’re talking about Covid fatigue from having to keep wearing a mask, think about the Covid fatigue for health care workers, respiratory therapists who are going to have to go through this whole episode again of trying to fight for peoples’ lives because we couldn’t figure out how to control this virus by doing some of the simple measures that have been prescribed,” Dr. Ezike said.

Ohio Governor Chimes In

Single Biggest Cause of Misinformation

Big Drop in Death Rates

NPR reports Studies Point To Big Drop In COVID-19 Death Rates.

That's the positive side. It stems from better treatments, better understanding, and lower age groups being impacted more.

Those are the medical views. I agree but also suggest that Covid has mutated into less lethal strains. 

Still this is very serious stuff. A focus on the death rate alone is horribly wrong. Covid is leaving tens of thousands of people with serious long-term medical complications. 

Hospitals Crammed With Covid-19 Patients

Bloomberg reports Hospitals Across the U.S. Are Crammed With Covid-19 Patients

U.S. hospitalizations for Covid-19 hit the highest point since Aug. 22, with New York doubling its count from early September and at least 10 other states reporting records.

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, meanwhile, cited four national studies that predicted a probable in-patient increase of as much as 6,200 daily over the next four weeks. 

The U.S. on Tuesday had 39,230 people in hospitals, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Of those, 8,178 were in intensive-care units; it’s been two months since the U.S. had more under such care. The number on ventilators, 1,889, reached its highest since Sept. 10.

Across the country, 37 states are reporting increased hospitalizations, including 21 states that have recently reported new records or are approaching previous highs, according to Johns Hopkins University data. While the trend is national, the hardest-hit region is the Midwest, according to the university.

That is another blast at the fools who only look at death rates as if that's the only measure that matters.  

Spotlight Germany

DW notes Germany reports record 11,000 cases, RKI warns of 'very serious' situation

It is the first time since the start of the pandemic that more than 10,000 new cases in Germany were recorded in a 24-hour period and the second time in a matter of days that the country has reported a new daily high.

"The situation has become very serious overall," Dr. Lothar Wieler, head of the RKI, said.

The German government has issued travel warnings for popular ski regions in Austria, Italy and Switzerland, as well as for all of Ireland and Poland. Mainland Britain is also now viewed as a high risk area.

Under the warnings, which take effect from Saturday, travelers coming back to Germany must quarantine for 10 days.

It's not just Germany. Europe has been clobbered. 

Spotlight Switzerland 

Riots in Italy

Football First Students Second

Super-Spreader Event in NC Church

Jim Bianco on Top of Things as Usual

Trump Mocks Biden for Wearing a Mask

Please recall Trump Is Hospitalized With Covid-19, Days After Mocking Biden for Wearing a Mask

Trump Blames the Media

Here's an amusing clip of a Trump supporter.

That is the attitude Trump has fostered whether you accept it or not.

What to do about it is a serious question.

No matter who wins the election, we need a serious discussion and coming together on Covid policy.

Mish

Comments (150)
PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

But trump says we are turning the corner.

9 days till election.

SAKMAN
SAKMAN

LOL, I guess Trump is causing the Coronavirus problems in Europe as well. Look I dislike the man and would never vote for him. Im going Jo myself. Regardless, you simply cant blame a single person for this virus, all my progressive friends are hanging out too. Under the radar, while being critical of those that wont wear a mask with the 50 people they see in small groups each week. LOL.

This is a respiratory disease, watch yourself between now and May. . . whether MacDonald Trump is in office or not.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

I always knew that the US was the perfect place for COVID to hang around for a long while.

As I said in a previous comment, we are not, in an epidemiological sense, a single country.

We have hubs......lots of travel to and from those hubs....into the hinterlands. We have urban centers....and interstate highways leading in between those. Early on, it was easy to see that COVID was tracking the interstates.

So we had early problems in some places....and now we have problems in other places. I fully expect that with no effective vaccine, we could continue to see new hot spots develop...and ebb...and then occur somewhere else....for quite some time.

And here's a news flash. Even though Trump did everything wrong.....even a sudden change to doing everything right is not going to instantly fix this. This is a very contagious disease that will take years to work its way through the population.

Herd immunity here is not anywhere close, in spite of what any so-called expert might tell you, or what you might read somewhere.

I expect people will be grimly obeying the rules before this is done.....even the deniers. It's easy to think it's bogus until it kills your grandmother.....or worse, your husband or your wife.

Carl_R
Carl_R

This is exactly what the anti-maskers wanted. They have been working hard all summer to seed Covid, to assure that the election takes place against a backdrop of record cases and record deaths. It has worked remarkably well. Should make for an interesting election.

Carl_R
Carl_R

While Covid would be here regardless of who was President, the US could have done a much better job, and could hardly have done worse. What is missing? Two things, both important. Empathy, and leadership. When Trump got Covid, he had the opportunity to do as Christie did, and say that he was wrong, and that he understood what people were going through who had it, or who lost loved ones to it. Instead, he essentially said that it was no big deal, and anyone who died from it was weak, and it was their fault. So, rather than empathy, he insulted the sick and dead.

As far as leadership, in times of crisis, leaders step forward and offer inspiration and hope. Trump, instead, has been the anti-science President. He has never called for unity, nor tried to inspire the country to get through this. Some blame the growth of depression and suicides on the lockdowns. I blame it on Trump, and lack of even attempting to lead and inspire the country. The result is people feel helpless and unempowered.

"We have this completely under control."
"Anyone that wants a test can get one"
"Poof, it will vanish on it's own"
....and so on.

bradw2k
bradw2k

Agree with Bianco that case count is what's politically important, even if one thinks (rationally) that serious sickness and death is what actually matters.

US weekly hospitalizations had a second peak (July/August), that got as high as the first peak. But the second hump of weekly deaths was only half as high as the first. Why?

njbr
njbr

There's no defending the indefensible US/Trump led (and sabotaged) response.

No arguments can make these facts go away.

USA--4% of the world's population, 20% of the deaths.

South Korea(51 million people)--25,000 cases, 457 deaths
Taiwan(23 million people)--550 cases, 7 deaths

FactsonJoe
FactsonJoe

My long post on HCQ with link to Henry Ford hospitals study showing -50% lower death rates when Covid patients were given HCQ immediately after admission and a link to collection of 148 studies showing countries that give HCQ widely through regular doctors have -89% lower death rates got deleted after one person replied to it using the long name of the medicine in question and before this it had lots of comments and was visible.

Does TheStreet have a policy on comments where they automatically delete comments on blogs hosted by them when HCQ is dicussed?

Or did Mish delete my comment?

If it is the former could you please return my comment and STOP TheStreet from censoring comments on your blog.

If it is the latter could you please read the Henry Ford hospitals study and the site listing 148 studies and then return the comment because I hope that more American people could be saved.

Greggg
Greggg

In Michigan the case count is way higher, but the tests are way higher, 50.000 per day average. We also have tyranny and failing businesses. We can manage the illness, it's our state government here that needs to be eradicated.

Sechel
Sechel

Europe is spiking as a result of August holidays in Europe. August is vacation month in Europe , Europeans let their guard down traveled and brought the virus home. They weren't wearing masks or social distancing during that travel.

The United States is spiking because leadership is lacking. Donald Trump fights requiring masks in airports , buses etc and in many states Governors are not following whatever CDC guidelines Trump's team haven't blocked. Travel has picked up in the U.S. as well since Spring.

And in both Europe and the U.S. more and more of the public is suffering from Covid-19 fatigue and are not being as stringent in their routines as they were a few months ago. It would really help if we had serious leadership in Washington but we don't.

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

If you guys havent figured it out yet, 2021 is toast economically, plan accordingly.

Realist
Realist

The Pandemic will continue to spread in the US, causing widespread pain and suffering well into 2021. The economy will continue to suffer as a result. How long the suffering lasts will likely depend on who wins the Presidency. I would expect Biden to bring in a plan to deal with the pandemic and get the upper hand within a year. If Trump wins, I expect him to continue to do very little; in which case the suffering will last another 2 or 3 years.

Worldometer numbers for US

New cases: deaths

Oct 20 62,478:952

Oct 21 64,067:1224

Oct 22 74,446:973

Oct 23 81,414:903

Oct 24 79,449:784

njbr
njbr

Mish
Mish

Editor

FactsOnJoe I am really tired of your bullshit like this:

"USA has done MORE tests than the rest of the world COMBINED."

I have not censored you yet but I am on the verge.

The US has NOT done more tests than the rest of the world combined.

Please correct your comment.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

What are the recent COVID numbers for China? If the numbers are better or worse than the West, then why?

outwest20
outwest20

I do not think it is likely the US would have fared better with Covid-19 had a Democratic administration been in charge instead of the Trump administration. Most of US Government is inefficient and expensive regardless, and US healthcare has been broken for at least a couple decades. Government mandates, failure to enforce long standing anti-trust laws, K-Street lobbyists, and both political parties have been key in making US healthcare and insurance industries into the giant extraction rackets they are today. Also, many Americans are in poor health. We have an epidemic of obesity, and obesity is a risk factor for Covid-19. Because of these long standing problems, the US was a soft target for Covid-19. We should all be grateful it is relatively mild compared to some of history's more virulent pandemics.

I believe President Trump made many idiotic and egotistical public statements, but the primary effect of Covid-19 on the US is not his fault. Importantly, his administration did the most significant thing the federal government could do, which is to accelerate the development of therapeutics and vaccines (HCQ controversy aside). Because of this, vaccines should begin wide distribution around the middle of 2021. If Biden/Harris are elected then they will no doubt claim credit, despite having nothing to do with it. Vaccines will likely be in wide distribution shortly after the beginning of the next president's term either way. Recent second waves around the world prove it is wrong for Biden to be an armchair critic of the Trump Administration's handling of Covid-19, and it ought to count against him.

ajc1970
ajc1970

oh my, the sky is falling.

we better lock ourselves down and stop living life to make sure that we stay alive.

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Did you think that Trump blames "high (Covid 19) numbers" on the media?

Trump's tweet:

The Fake News is talking about CASES, CASES, CASES. This includes many low risk people. Media is doing everything possible to create fear prior to November 3rd. The Cases are up because TESTING is way up, by far the most, and best, in the world. Mortality rate is DOWN 85% plus!

EndTrumpTweet

OK, the 1st Amendment applies to politicians, not advertisers, so ... well ... Most and best? 85% of what? People-set being tested has gotten younger, as implied but not said? Whatever.

The headline said two things (lifted from the article, itself): The first was that Trump pointed out something from elementary statistics. The second was an outright falsehood.

The quality of that TheHill headline and article is endemic to bubble proportions these days. On the left. On the right. Fun times.

Realist
Realist

It is interesting to read comments that imply that no one would have done a better job than Trump on the CV19 pandemic. Or that it would have been just as bad with Democrats in charge.

That is ridiculous.

The US would have been better off with ANY other person as President. Pick any Republican who ran for President in 2016 or any Democrat. Any party. Any candidate.

Every single one of them would have looked at this crisis as an opportunity to demonstrate their leadership skills. Every single one of them would have accepted this gift (politically speaking) which would guarantee their re-election in a landslide. All they had to do was stand in front of the nation, tell the truth about the pandemic, and lead.

Jacinda Ardern was just handed a huge landslide victory in New Zealand, because she properly led that nation in their fight against the pandemic. She is literally worshipped by many Kiwis now, as their Saviour (no joke).

The US, by comparison, has a President who has ignored, belittled, and lied about the pandemic from the beginning. Instead of recognizing what a political gift this was; instead of demonstrating his ability to lead the nation in a time of crisis; instead of caring for the citizens he swore to protect; all he has shown is how completely useless he is. A tv clown, who only cares about his tv ratings as proof that people adore him.

Of course Biden will be better at handling the pandemic. Anyone would be better than Trump. History will show him to be the worst President the US has ever had.

jerrykeyes
jerrykeyes

If Dr Fauci supported Leronlimab, it would have been approved by now and would be saving lives and preventing "Long Haulers".


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