Covid is Now the Third Leading Cause of Death in the US

Mish

Covid jumps ahead of accidents, injuries, lung disease, diabetes.

No Laughing Matter

Covid-19 is so deadly that

This post is in response to yet another absurd Covid Tweet by @Carbongate.

"Covid-19 is so deadly that you need testing to see if you have it!"

Third Leading Cause of Death

Please note COVID the Third-Leading Cause of Death in the U.S.

  • Thomas Frieden, MD, former director of the CDC, said "COVID is now the No. 3 cause of death in the U.S. -- ahead of accidents, injuries, lung disease, diabetes, Alzheimer's, and many, many other causes."
  • "Last week, Americans were eight times more likely to get killed by COVID than were Europeans," said Frieden.
  • “We’re seeing a roller coaster in the United States,” IHME Director Christopher Murray, MD, said. “It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others -- which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again.

I am sick of rampant Covid-19 misinformation on Twitter. 

Let's make Carbongate's Tweet accurate.

Covid-19 is So Deadly, 175,000 in the US Died From It

Death Counts

  • In the US, over 175,000 people have died.
  • In the US, Covid-19 is the third leading cause of death.
  • In Europe, over 200,000 people have did. 

Excess Deaths

Based on 200,000 excess US deaths through July 25, it is safe to assume those totals are huge undercounts.

Fools find this a laughing matter and make inane jokes about it. 

For discussion of excess deaths, please see What is the Real Coronavirus Death Toll in the US?

Mish

Comments (148)
No. 1-34
Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

You have to look at deaths above the norm. I think year over year in the same time period we have more like 250k more deaths. So the numbers are understated

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Outbreak in South Korea. Which proves we are all screwed.

shamrock
shamrock

This one is making the rounds. Captain Kirk: "Bones, when will this covid19 be over?" Doctor Mccoy: "Dammit Jim, I'm an doctor not a politician"

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

The aspect not nearly reported enough - long term health problems (not rising to level of hospitalization) of even asymptomatic infected.

Until we know more, need to proceed with caution.

bradw2k
bradw2k

I would like to know (okay I admit it: I'd like Friedman to spoon-feed me) the age distributions of said causes. Not to deny danger of virus, but for more context to understand these statistics. Twitter is fertile ground for reifying and abusing statistics.

For starters, what % of the 175k are over 80 years old? In Oregon it is 48% over 80, 75% over 70.

Mish
Mish

Editor

  1. Population did not change that much in the last few years

  2. Regardless, the excess death numbers are indeed population adjusted

  3. Not all excess deaths are Covid related. My guess 80% of them or more. This 20% reduction easily handles alleged "other factors" in excess deaths

Mish
Mish

Editor

OPDM

Old People Don't Matter

Jojo
Jojo

"Covid-19 is So Deadly, 175,000 in the US Died From It"

Only if you believe the official statistics. Which will most likely be revised (just like the unemployment numbers are each month) and IMO, downward.

Furthermore, any numbers are for one years only and unlikely to matter much in future years.

Further, furthermore, of all the people I know (and it is quite a lot), no one has contacted the virus, let alone died from it. I was in Lowe's the other day talking to one of the friendly workers there. Being on the floor, he gets to speak with a lot of people both workers and customers. I asked him the question I often ask others - how many people do you know who have gotten the virus or died? And his answer, after a little thought was one person at work (big store) whose father supposedly died from CV19! Just ONE!

The fear and panic is MSM/blog driven, not reality.

fla56
fla56

mish sorry to be the medic lecturing the economist talking health but again you seem to have some kind of bizarre emotional attachment to lockdown

the facts are very clear, esp as NZ fails again, folk really need to move on, COVID is not even flu, it doesn't touch the young (<40s) in any meaningful way, lockdown is insane and murderous

and someone quoting a spot / transient increase in deaths is like them claiming they lost money during a flash crash -then made it back

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

SO WHAT ? We are still mortal after all, aren t we ? Should we all 'happily' live to be hundred ? The social system, in Europe in particular, is already excessively overburdened as it is .....Who s gonna pay ?

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

I personally know 4 people that have died of cv19. I wrote about the stages of deniers.

Stage 1. Deny Covid-19 is a problem (standard phrase: “it’s a hoax” or “its the flu”)

Stage 2. Denier hears of a 3rd or 4th degree of separation severe illness or death of person by CV19 (a friend of a friend, or someone’s girlfriend’s cousin’s aunt dies). The standard callus response by the deniers is “bad genes” or “poor health” or “we all die sometime.”

Stage 3. Someone denier knows personally (friend, family member, etc) gets cv19 but comes through with no apparent health issues. Standard response (“Trump was right, its just the flu.” or “the cure is worse than the disease.”)

Stage 4. Someone denier personally knows gets seriously sick or dies from cv19 (usually an elderly relative or immune/health compromised person.)
Standard response: “They said it wasnt serious, I didnt know my [insert family member or friend] was going to die from it.”

Stage 5. Denier turns to believer: “Trump is an idiot, he needs to go.”

I post this to help you deniers jump to stage 5 and avoid the other stages by being proactive and cautious. I am at 4 dead people I know but always knew Trump was an idiot.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"The virus isn't going away, but yes, for some reason, you don't talk about how younger people matter. EVER"

Ever?

Don't say stupid stuff.

Millennials, the Screwed Generation, Blame Boomers For Making Their Lives Worse

Millennials Screwed Again, This Time on Unemployment

Mish
Mish

Editor

Those with TDS Type II (Trump can do no wrong) are making fools of themselves again.

If Trump promoted masks, distancing, and we had test results in a few few hours, not weeks, then we would not be bickering about lockdowns now.

Instead, we have OPDM, it's Pelosi's fault, and Trump is of course brilliant.

For the record, states went overboard on lockdowns, but it was in response to inane testing that took weeks, no tracing, etc.

Even Republican states reversed reopenings after huge outbreaks. That's clearly Pelosi's fault too.

If we just stopped testing, everything would be fine (except for dead piling up and filled hospitals)m but who in their right mind cares about that?!

njbr
njbr

It is really amazing the density of some skull bones...

The shut-down was to get a handle on how to progress our way through what was known to be a long-run problem.

The measures that were developed--social distancing, mask-wearing, sanitation etc, have worked to slow the spread where implemented.

The important thing was to slow the rate at which the population gets sick, so the health-care system can take adequate care of the percentage of people who get really ill.

The responses by the know nothings---it's not really a problem, it's just a cold, mask-wearing and social distancing are communist plots, who cares about the sick and ill ("I don't know any"), only old people get ill and die. Who gives a FF about reports of overstrained hospitals.

And we didn't use the shut-downs to develop a rational plan of response, we didn't mobilize to increase production of ppe, standard containment measures are denigrated, and epidemological studies on how it is spread are ignored.

And that is why we have the highest number of deaths and are climbing toward the highest rate of death anywhere in the world. And that is why we have different hospital systems in the country working at the ragged edge of failure.

No one has promoted shut-down forever. No one has said that no one should die ever. The whole point is DON'T ACCELERATE DEATHS AND ILLNESSES.

SLOW THE SPREAD.

TumblingDice
TumblingDice

COVID is Over-Hyped.

Minnesota when the "Stay At Home" order was put in in late March had two models "by the state and university researchers" here are the deaths predicted (from Minneapolis Star Tribune, March 28).
Do Nothing model predicted 74,000 deaths over entire pandemic,
Stay At Home model predicted 50,000 - 55,000.

Compare the above to, as of today, Minn deaths are roughly at 1,750.
WORST CASE:
At the highest seven day moving average the death count was under 30.
Taking the highest average death daily rate (April and May) for July 1 through end of year there would have been 5,400 (30 daily deaths x 180 days).
Adding another 6 months would make the number 10,800.

CURRENT CASEs:
Using current case of 7 for the seven day moving average July 1 through end of year would be 1,260 (7 x 180).
Another 6 months would put this 2,520.

Bottom line: take precautions, but you do not have to live in fear.

P.S. I don't do Twitter, and IF I did, I would take with a grain of salt.

BLUEWIN
BLUEWIN

You can't believe anything anymore . . .

bradw2k
bradw2k

OPDM ... said no one.

Met with my dad for the first time since the start of the pandemic yesterday to celebrate his 80th birthday. In a park, all distancing and wearing masks. He didn't even get to hold his two-month-old granddaughter. But the red velvet cupcakes I made were phenomenal, if I do say so myself.

An implication of the age-distribution of deaths from COVID is that those with elderly family members (which is everyone, of course) should be especially concerned that they are never exposed.

When I was younger and would do things like rock climbing, I decided to not do anything where I figured the risk of death or severe injury was >= 1%. (In hindsight, that's pretty freaking high.) ... For the elderly the COVID death rate appears to be much higher than 1%.

RonJ
RonJ

Hydroxychloroquine and zinc would have prevented that.

Tengen
Tengen

FYI, beware of this new member Fast Falcon. He just replied to me on an old thread that the Trump admin didn't embrace Goldman Sachs like Obama did (Steve Mnuchin, Gary Cohn, Steve Bannon, Dina Powell, Jay Clayton, and Anthony Scaramucci don't count???) so bear that in mind when talking to him. This is definitely a guy who has no qualms playing fast and loose with facts.

Rbm
Rbm

Well yesterday was my last day of isolation. Mild case few days of low temps. Fams fine. Im in the tourism industry. in northern ca. This yr Mostly customers from southern ca /South east us/ tahoe and any other hotspot( dont feel safe go somewhere else.)A good number with stories about someOne they know/work with/distant family etc in hospital or worse/. They still went on vaca though. Im lucky the co i work for put measures in place/ limited possibilities above county requirements and took a big hit business wise for the greater good Of customers and employees. I was good about distance/ mask/sani etc. still got it but measures in place to contain it. Ive had two weeks to ponder. My conclusion is to be as safe as you can avoid it as long as you can. Still expect to get it at some point.
As we see schools university's countries etc open up its gonna spread. that how it works and human nature is just helping it along. Be safe

Herkie
Herkie

Smoking causes Covid?

Rusty Nail
Rusty Nail

I prefer GOP: Goodbye Old People
In the last 6 months, 1.6% of the people over age 80 in my state have died of Covid 19.

Wake up sheeple
Wake up sheeple

Everything supposedly covid
Sick of this constant Bullshit!

Badbisco
Badbisco

Franklin templeton had an interesting piece on people’s fear of COVID vs actual mortality rates by age

Pretty clear that the media and dems trying to hurt Trumps chances for re-election have successfully panicked the population for ratings and political gain. Personally also think the gerontocracy running the country is making decisions based on their own risk rather than thinking about what is best for everyone.

The virus is a significant risk for older people but the wholesale lockdown is absolutely the wrong way to address it based on the actual risks for the vast majority of people. I fear Mish will accuse me of not caring about old people but the facts are clear, at risk and older people should be on lockdown, not the entire population.

ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant

It seems the population is unaware of a few simple truths, like you don't need a mask when hiking alone on the Appalachian Trail, avoid enclosed places with infected people, like nursing homes, bars, and restaurants.

Sechel
Sechel

graph up top would look better on a per capita basis

njbr
njbr

Road sign--"Ice on Bridge--Slippery!"

Drivers slow down and and fewer people end up in the ditch.

Do you say, "The sign is lying, I didn't end up in the ditch. I'll drive even faster when I see that sign again because I didn't end up in the ditch!"

Death rates reflect changes made.

Prove the death rate if no precautions taken.

Brazil? Peru? Iran? In a class of our own?

meowing4u
meowing4u

We get it. You are Team D. So why, again, did you move our of the (D) mecca state of IL? Come back and be part of the fair share taxpayers (they're SO low!)

mkestrel
mkestrel

647,000 Americans died in 2019 of coronary artery disease. Makes Covid 19 look like a rounding error. Stop the fear mongering .

PT109
PT109

Robert F Kennedy who has spent his whole life litigating environmental issues and Pharmaceuticals and their vaccines for all their lies and abuses and has won almost all of his cases. He also questions the National medical establishment and their direction on Covid quarantine .....which he states that far more people will die from the quarantine than Covid itself. This is Roberts latest interview done by Ron Paul.

WildBull
WildBull

The fastest a vaccine was developed was for mumps. It took 4 years. The average is 10 years. Does anyone really believe that we will need a vaccine 4 years from now?

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Garbage In, Garbage Out.
If you believe the 175,000 death count as fact, you will believe anything.
You probably also believe that politics has nothing to do with various (and wildly varying) State shut-down policies, nor affects any of the counting, nor financial compensation for covid cases over ordinary flu or pulmonary diseases, nor so many reports of false positives. No, you have good clean data in an event that is purely medical and nothing more.
However:
NOTHING the USG publishes is accurate any more, nor has been in decades. The DC system is almost entirely corrupt and corrupting.
Pretty much NOTHING the mainstream press publishes is accurate.

Intelligent analysts like Mish go to hack job disinfo places like 538.com for election statistics, and also to totally corrupt places like the CDC for covid information.

It feels good to trust things and make reasonable assumptions based thereon;
But it's disturbingly naive to be so trusting these days.