Counting Excess Deaths, 500,000 People Have Died From Covid

Mish

Worldometers reports 423,000 have died from Covid. The true count is much higher.

Excess Deaths State-by-State

Range of Excess Deaths by State 2020-01-22

The CDC provides Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods. 

Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death. 

The CDC gives a range of 365,918 to 492,450. 

According to Worldometers, the current death count is 423,016. 

Covid-Related Deaths

The true Covid-related death count is closer to 500,000 especially given the time lag. 

The excess death total captures under-diagnosis (someone died without ever having a positive test) and the indirect impacts on the healthcare system such as filled hospitals, ambulance delays, medical equipment shortages, and staff shortages.

Such counts are undoubtedly small in comparison to direct Covid deaths. 

Mish

Comments (186)
No. 1-37
Jackula
Jackula

Exactly, I get so tired of discussing this with Covidiots. A decent chunk of the excess deaths are from the 12.5 % of those that get hospitalized with Covid and discharged die within 5 months with heart attacks, strokes etc. Another concerning factor is even tho these newer more contagious mutations of Covid are not supposed to be more lethal the data is possibly not supporting that. Here in LA County we've gone from 1 in 8 that are hospitalized with Covid dying to 1 in 4. I think Boris Johnson may have reported something to that affect occuring in the UK as well very recently. Could be due to hospital overcrowding which could be a percentage of these but doubtful a complete doubling.

njbr
njbr

from Washington Post...

Like a speeding car whose brake lines have been cut, the coronavirus variant first spotted in Britain is spreading at an alarming rate and isn’t responding to established ways of slowing the pandemic, according to Danish scientists who have one of the world’s best views into the new, more contagious strain.

Cases involving the variant are increasing 70 percent a week in Denmark, despite a strict lockdown, according to Denmark’s State Serum Institute, a government agency that tracks diseases and advises health policy.

“We’re losing some of the tools that we have to control the epidemic,” said Tyra Grove Krause, scientific director of the institute, which this past week began sequencing every positive coronavirus test to check for mutations. By contrast, the United States is sequencing 0.3 percent of cases, ranking it 43rd in the world and leaving it largely blind to the variant’s spread.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65

The big question to me is will this continue indefinitely (ie year after year) or is it a 1 year blip where those most vulnerable to Covid are dying off (ie deaths pulled forward).

We won't know that answer until 2021 is finished and whether there are fewer deaths than expected (assuming vaccine rolls out over this year) or whether the trend continues again this year and there is another 500K excess deaths.

As for me, I just finished my 10 day quarantine along with the rest of my family (and many relatives who also were positive). No one was remotely affected by Covid other than loss of smell/taste for a couple of days. The people (about a dozen in total) in question ranged from kids under 12 to adults over 60 with varying levels of health (a couple smoked) but NONE were obese or had respiratory issues.

njbr
njbr

Major problems in Manaus Brazil, where earlier this year there had been talk of so many had already had it that herd immunity was likely.

Apparently that was not so...The public health system in Manaus collapsed again this month. An unprecedented surge in coronavirus cases has led to an acute shortage of oxygen. The local manufacturer could only meet a fraction of the demand.

Some hospital patients have been forced to share cylinders, while others have died in bed from suffocation, according to health workers and patients' families.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65

Also something else is funny in terms of flu / Covid testing.

Last year Flu numbers Oct 19 - Apr 20 (pre Covid) were 39-56 million cases.

This year from Sept 20 - Jan 21 there are 1159 cases. Yes, just just 1159 cases. The CDC is suspending their models now for flu for this year. So either we wiped out the flu entirely OR no one is testing for the flu OR flu positives and Covid positives are intermingled.

Frilton Miedman
Frilton Miedman

We (the U.S.) account for 5% of global population.

We account for 20% of global covid deaths.

Round of applause for Trump!

Is the Trump base still confident HCQ is a cure for this "fake flu"?...
Is wearing a mask an affront to your personal liberty?...
Will it still soon be zero cases?...
Inject bleach, anyone?

A political movement (cult) is literally a public health hazard, literally.

truthseeker
truthseeker

Mish have you seen today’s WSJ? There is another very interesting article-Regeneron’s Antibody Miracle for COVID-19-you ought to look at. This is the most encouraging article I’ve read with regard to this infusion my wife keeps talking about though she hasn’t even seen this story yet.

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Something to remember, remember, remember: Those weekly death counts shown in the blue-line, CDC graph at the top of this posting do not reflect only the direct effects of Covid. They reflect the effect of Covid in combination with the population's response to Covid. Good luck trying to disentangle these two factors.

The graph's url is:

It can show the whole US and each of the States.

And a similar graph for other countries is at:

Realist
Realist

We were discussing on this blog back in April or May, if Covid would become endemic. Even back then, signs were pointing to the distinct possibility that we would be unable to completely eradicate it, and that vaccines, should they appear, would not necessarily provide long-term immunity. The jury is still out. Only time will tell for certain. But, it appears as if it will indeed be endemic, and with us for a very long time.

Given the excessive amount of misinformation and conspiracy theories about this virus, combined with the reluctance of some populations to follow the suggested preventive measures, I suspect we will be watching "the daily covid numbers" for many years to come.

It will be interesting to see what percentage of the US population actually gets vaccinated. I'm guessing by September it will be 60% vaccinated, and 700K dead.

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

Mish, you have to admit it gave a great cover to the real purpose of the printing of $trillions, delaying the inevitable collapse of the financial markets.

Carl_R
Carl_R

The degree of under-counting with Covid is much smaller than with the seasonal flu, mostly because the numbers are bigger, and they are working harder to be accurate. If the official count is 425,000 and the real count is 500,000, that is only an adjustment of 18%. By contrast, with the seasonal flu the adjustment is normally about 500%. Thus, if they count 8,000 deaths, they multiply it by 6, and the official count becomes 48,000.

I got so tired, back in the spring, of the people who wanted to compare counted Covid numbers for 3 months, with adjusted numbers for the flu for a year. Now we have Covid numbers for nearly a year, and by the time we get to the end of flu season (end of March), Covid will be around 5-600,000 counted, or 6-700,000 adjusted. For those that wish to compare, those numbers can be compared to a typical 6,000 flu deaths counted, and 36,000 adjusted.

njbr
njbr

Recall, one of Trump's last acts in office was to decree opening borders with the UK and Brazil a day or so before the end of his term.

Meanwhile Portugal, with travel from both the UK and Brazil, has more than tripled the rate of infection in the last month.

Hmmm, now why would Trump have done that?

(Biden cancelled the order)

njbr
njbr

....CBS News got rare access to a lab in South Africa studying one of the more worrying new strains of the virus, which appears to have at least some resistance to the antibodies that vaccines create in the human body to fend off the bug.

Virus hunters in the high-risk biohazard lab in Durban are hot on the trail of the mutant strain spreading at breakneck speed across South Africa. The virus has mutated to attach itself more easily to human cells, making the disease no more deadly, but helping it spread a lot more easily.

"We do believe that we are going through a new pandemic with this variant that not only transmits much faster, but that also potentially has less neutralization," genetic scientist Tulio de Oliveira tells CBS News.

De Oliveira discovered the new variant after observing a dramatic uptick in infections in November. His colleagues in the highly secured lab have developed a live culture of the strain to speed up their research.

Alex Sigal is a senior researcher at the Africa Health Research Institute and at Germany's Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology. He says the new strain discovered in South Africa appears to have the ability to reduce the effectiveness of antibodies in people infected with the original version of the virus significantly.

"Ten-fold would be conservative," he tells CBS News, but "you can also have complete knock-out," meaning a person's natural defenses to the original strain of the virus could prove useless against the variant in South Africa.

Jojo
Jojo

400k, 500k, 1 million. Whatever. Most Covid-19 deaths were/will be of older, overweight, in poor health and often with multiple comorbidities. Perhaps this will scare enough people to start living healthful lives.

And still, the numbers above are a very small percentage against the total US population of 330+ millions.

Jojo
Jojo

All it took was a change in the president! [lol]

Current, Deadly U.S. Coronavirus Surge Has Peaked, Researchers Say
January 21, 20215:09 AM ET

The devastating fall and winter wave of coronavirus infections that is causing so much misery across the U.S. appears to have finally peaked, according to several researchers who are closely tracking the virus.

Covaids
Covaids

I still don’t know one person who has got sick or died from “covid” and I know a lot of people who know a lot of people. The only ones “dying” are 80 years old, passed the life of age expectancy dying from other things or old age but labeled as covid..... lol under reported we have already been told if someone dies “from clear alternate” causes they will be labeled covid. Plus the test are a complete joke and now they are notching down the cycle threshold that was testing everyone positive even though they have no symptoms. If you can see this is the biggest scam in world history to usher in the green new deal, build back better, new normal, we are all in this together, new world order, technocratic totalitarian you will own nothing and be happy state then you haven’t been paying attention.

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

RIP Hammerin’ Hank Aaron. Last public appearance 2 weeks ago getting the COVID vaccine.

bobbyvelvet
bobbyvelvet

How will all the excess deaths (deaths brought forward) affect the life insurers and financial markets?

JG1170
JG1170

Pretty remarkable to me that God, or chance, or whatever "decides" to drop this miracle microbe on the population exactly 10 months before the VERY, VERY, VERY UNWANTED BY SO MANY (but almost guaranteed) reelection of the one man who gave the globalists the hardest time they'd ever seen. Now that their thorn of thorns is removed, let's go ahead and conveniently rejigger the way we count a positive or a negative case, and let's move on with the Globalist agenda as if he never existed. Only a child could believe this chain of events is remotely natural.

Jojo
Jojo

The COVID recession may kill more Americans than COVID-19 does
GEOFF COLVIN
January 6, 2021

The economic effects of COVID-19 could prove deadlier than the disease itself.

So says just-released research, which concludes that the total lives lost to the virus in the U.S. may “far exceed those immediately related to the acute COVID-19 critical illness…The recession caused by the pandemic can jeopardize population health for the next two decades.”

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

The sad fact is new strains can cause havoc.

A) British strain may be worse - one link below.
B) SA strain more transmissible.
C) New Brazilian strain has hallmarks of hitting younger people.

Long covid, or asymptotic people, might help incubate new strains.
Its not over yet. Link below is after considerable UK analysis and believed to have come via someone suffering with Covid for a while. How many more type might be brewing in India, China etc.

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

.....Looks like the Sapiens Ape found a worthy 'opponent', at last, should have happened half a century ago BEFORE we smugly indulged in overpopulation and the irreversible destruction of the planet....but then again, it is probably the very overpopulation and subsequent destruction of ecosystems that caused the pandemic....I am not a scientist, nevertheless provided with some common sense, so allow me to think that the more we 'tamper' or try to deal with this shit in unorthodox ways, the worse it will get....and YEP, forget about vaccines, they ll turn out to be much less efficient than big pharma and desperate, lobbied politicians want us to believe, long term effects might even be disastrous.... Btw, I definitely hope I am wrong, I really do !

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

Ruh-Roh! Add Larry King’s 9 ex-wives to the parade to blame Trump.

bonaventdeus
bonaventdeus

Covid-19 is a huge problem that has affect all the world, almost eveybody have lost some in the last year but i dont have faith in the vaccine, i think they made to fast and will not work as they expect for my the best solution is stay at home thats the best way we have until now, i know is hard but we have to find the way to make it everything work from home... that why from my point of view cryptocurrencies are a good busness is this diffucult time https://www.mintme.com/news/cryptocurrencies-social-distance-best-friend for more information

vboring
vboring

The headline graphic presents "historic data" and "future projections" as if they were the same thing.

This practice is somewhere on the spectrum of obfuscation through to outright lie. It is commonly used by people who are trying to tell a story rather than trying to understand what is actually happening.

You're better than this, Mish.

numike
numike

"I Am Quite Apprehensive about What Might Otherwise Happen in Spring and Summer"
In an interview with Christian Drosten, the German virologist looks back on the mistakes he has made in the coronavirus pandemic – and ahead to the dangers that the pandemic still has in store for us.

numike
numike

Its a hoax

njbr
njbr

Researchers at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) have found elevated levels of a biomarker related to blood vessel damage in children with SARS-CoV-2 infection, even if the children had minimal or no symptoms of COVID-19. They also found that a high proportion of children with SARS-CoV-2 infection met clinical and diagnostic criteria for thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA). TMA is a syndrome that involves clotting in the small blood vessels and has been identified as a potential cause for severe manifestations of COVID-19 in adults.

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Commenters have noted the difference between politics and pandemic disease.

So, lets talk politics. :)

Prediction: This year, maybe by summer, maybe later, there will be a significant drop in "excess deaths" in the US and in other places. 2021 and 2022? Where are all the deaths?!? They just disappeared! Hallelujah! It's a miracle!

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Thank God tanman is gone. He literally had to do everything wrong in order to lose and thankfully did. It will take Biden a full year to course correct but signs of normalcy will be evident by late summer.

JONZDOG
JONZDOG

Die from Covid or with Covid. Hopefully the definitions have gotten better.

DoctorFuture
DoctorFuture

The comment from Realist of "Cheers, Mate" suggests to me he is a pirate. Like to know if he has an eye patch and a peg leg. He may command the Nautilus. Nevertheless, I usually resonate with his comments, here in Nashville.

My immediate family member is on week 8 on a ventilator, and trying to wean him off. He was very healthy and manly before this. Has a trach tube and feeding tube, and shipped off to a rehab center to free up an ICU bed. Still does not understand why he is in the hospital, and anxiety is a common symptom in such patients. I expect long term cognitive, respiratory and other impairments with him from here on, along with other "recovered'" otherwise healthy people.

frozeninthenorth
frozeninthenorth

Mish, very interesting analysis. I've been confronted with these statistics up here in Canada. In fact, with the increase in population, we have not seen appreciation in the number of dead (so far) the real issue are those who have been prevented from seeking medical care.


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