Coronavirus Global Update and Tweets of the Day

Mish

People in 5 States with 23% of the US are under stay home orders as the number of cases jumps 25% in a day.

About a month ago Trump announced there were 15 US cases headed to zero. On March 4 Trump proclaimed "we are talking about very small numbers in the US".

On March 17, Trump told this amazing bald-faced lie: "This is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic."

Number of Cases Jumped Over 5,000 Today

The number of cases in the US has jumped by over 5,000 today to nearly 25% and there are still many hours left in the day.

Stata are from Worldometers.

US Coronavirus Cases

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That is a "what if" not a prediction. Moreover we expected a leap due to increased testing.

US Coronavirus Deaths

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23 % of US Ordered to Stay at Home

  • 23% of the US Population is ordered to "stay at home" after governors in California (40 million residents), New York State (20 million), Illinois (13 million), and Connecticut (3.5 million) ordered nonessential workers to remain at home to slow the spread of coronavirus.
  • Connecticut issues a "stay at home" order for its 3.5 million residents that goes into effect Monday at 8 p.m
  • Texas declared a public health disaster for the first time in more than 100 years.
  • Illinois: Governor Pritzker issues an immediate "stay at home" order for all residents "to avoid the loss of potentially tens of thousands of lives" The order goes into effect at 5 p.m. Saturday.
  • New York: Governor Cuomo orders 100% of all non-essential workers to stay home.
  • Pennsylvania: Governor Wolf orders all businesses that aren’t ‘life-sustaining’ to close.
  • California: Governor Gavin Newson orders the state’s 40 million residents to “stay at home.” The order is “open ended.” Modeling predicts that 56% of the state’s population will be infected over the next 8 weeks. Only essential businesses will be allowed to remain open. All indoor public and private gatherings with 10 or more people are prohibited.

Stay Home Orders

Testing

New York now has over 10,000 cases and is doing more tests than any other state in the United States, according to Governor Cuomo, who said 45,000 tests have been performed in New York State, compared to 23,000 in California (which has twice the population).

Faster Test Results

Converting Gyms to Beds

Italy vs New York

US vs World

  • Speed of Coronavirus Pandemic in US is now the fastest in the world.
  • We’ve surpassed China on 16th days after 100th case, & still only 25% of country on lockdown.
  • In a week we’ll have more COVIDー19 cases than in China, likely >100k

New York Temporarily Halts Airline Departures

If You Need to Be Somewhere, Get There Before You Can't

I commented on the above prospect on March 16: If You Need to Be Somewhere, Get There Before You Can't

Goldman Projects a Catastrophic GDP Decline

Note that Goldman Projects a Catastrophic GDP Decline Worse than Great Depression

This is getting worse by the day,

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (116)
No. 1-33
Zardoz
Zardoz

The democrats are taking this impeachment virus hoax waaaaaaayyyyyy too far, and Dear Leader will deal with them shortly.

Quatloo
Quatloo

‘Shelter in place’ is a euphemism for house arrest. This is about politicians wanting to control the ignorant people they represent. The people can’t be trusted to do what is best, so the politician will force them to ‘do the right thing’. After all, who knows best what John and Jane Doe needs—the Does in their tiny apartment or the Governor in his mansion?

tokidoki
tokidoki

I am a snowflake, and I want to skip to the end of this nightmare.

QE2Infinity
QE2Infinity

Much of what Trump said was his ham-handed attempt at calming people. It's just Trump's style (or lack there of). Be angry at Trump if you must, but to what purpose? TDS? The situation is what it is. Also Trump may have access to more information about things than your average person,so, he probably did know its was a pandemic sooner.

How about a nice round of applause for President Trump and his banning flights from China when he did. That clearly was a helpful move. He probably should have did the same for flights from other places soon after. But the same critics were calling him a racist for a common sense move.

You can piss and moan about the rest. But, I suspect the latency in the response is more a reflection of the bureaucracy than its figurehead.

Jojo
Jojo

We need a big jump in deaths! Otherwise the medical industrial complex and the politicians are going to show as having grossly overreacted.

Jojo
Jojo

Here's a positive of the shutdowns - cleaner air & water.

The Emissions Impact of Coronavirus Lockdowns, As Shown by Satellites
March 21, 2020

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

How the lockdown in Wuhan worked?
Friends and families were coordinating shopping. The designated shopper of the day, collected the shopping lists, then dropped off the merchandise at the door.
The lockdown was obviously mostly in pigeon hole apartments, not McMansions.
But it worked.
If you think, you have it bad.

JG1170
JG1170

Decimating the entire economy by having an open-ended situation is just not an option IMO. They need to pick a firm number of days (no more than 16, I would say) and begin a National countdown. The number would appear on every TV station, so we ALL know we are on day "X". Then on day 17, EVERYONE goes back to normal life by Presidential decree. We use the stand-down time to prepare as well as possible. We turn Auditoriums into wards. We make YouTube videos deputizing people on how to take care of their family member victims, until they really, really need to be in the ICU. We deputize soldiers. That's about all we can do IMO. Oh, and we should force ALL lenders of ALL types to forgive a month or two of payments (across-the-board) and add it onto the end of ALL the contracts. Haphazard forgiveness and difficult-to-prove "local" moratoriums will result in legal, financial and moral nightmares for everyone and will ruin a lot of professional relationships, mainly landlord/tenant relationships. "Well Ralph in 204 was able to pay on time..."

Dean_70
Dean_70

I just posted a video I was sent. Shot outside of Chicago. MANY military vehicles eastbound: https://youtu.be/uxNQ8erWIW4

emw_1
emw_1

25000/1000 = 25X, not 5X. Therefore, at this rate of exponential increase, in 10 more days, the number will 25 x 25,000 = 625,000.

ohno
ohno

Trump needs to declare a national lockdown NOW. Screw letting the states with weak knees worrying about their precious pensions and tax receipts! Everyday they drag their heels is another day of exponential more cases as a possibility this is stupid. I also think many of the so called essential business really aren't essential and need to be shuttered. It's only a matter of time, these states are acting like toddlers that did something bad and are doing everything possible to try and hide the fact. Get with the program people!

lol
lol

Greastest economy ever my ass,deadest most chit economy ever definetly,Trump is a complete fraud,teflon Don.

abend237-04
abend237-04

"When it gets serious, you have to lie," Jean Claude Juncker, during the ECU debt crisis.

An unspoken corollary: If it persists, and your early lies have been revealed, you now have to be scrupulously honest. I think we're finally there, especially in China.

I think what's ahead for us is the China experience, adjusted upwards by the "Idiot college kids in the bars and on the beaches" factor.

We've built in several hundred thousand more infected, but maybe not so many dead...assuming we can be scrupulously honest and admit we should focus on testing and early, aggressive treatment of positives with Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin.

Greggg
Greggg

Looked at the stats in Michigan today... Cases are doubling every 2 1/2 days. If you look at the graphs, you can see where they started testing. Now we are at 807 cases state wide. Problem with all the stats is they are misleading to most. Now the fed has changed the way they determine cases because they will never be able to obtain the test kits they need. It is now getting near impossible to diagnose since they just expanded the symptoms list to include other symptoms that overlap into abdominal viruses. How many cases will be something other than COVID 19?

Realist
Realist

I see you posted this 4 hours ago. In those 4 hours the number of new cases in the US today has jumped from 5400 to 7400. The US just moved past Spain to 3rd place on the case list. 88 deaths today.

But it’s all a hoax so the government can take away your liberties.

At least that’s what brain-dead morons like Quatloo, KenKam, Billybob, RonJ, awc, jojo seem to think. They’re loading up on ammo to take on the tanks. “The government can’t keep them in their homes”.

njbr
njbr

So sad to tell you--most azithromycin manufactured in India, Spain and China. And, apparently there are a lot of people searching for hydroxychloroquine right now.

Check out https://www.pharmacompass.com/

Its a craigslist of pharmaceuticals.

Stan88
Stan88

Kudlow says a 2+ trillion stimulus package is in the works. Ok, so you add that to the projected 1.2 trillion deficit and you're looking at 3+ trillion annual budget deficit? Good luck with that.

crazyworld
crazyworld

GARLIC : looks like an alternative to others ZN ionophores fault of having them available.

Garlic contain sulfur based proteins (thiols group) which have the property to link and transport metals (chelation). Thiols group should probably trigger a displacement of ZN ions toward the inner cell (ionophore). Although the ZN ionophore property of Garlic thiols has not been (scientificaly) investigated unlike for QUERCETIN (oignons contain it) which at 3 to 7 grams per day is as good as chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine.
Garlic has been proved IN VITRO to impede some virus replication. He has also been proved to kill a lot of BACTERIAS. Scientifics did not explain the biomolecular causes of these effects as most researchs date back a lot. Garlic is so cheap and cant be patented so that nobody decided to invest in scientificaly led in vivo clinical trials.

The datas from South Korea are encouragingly weird because of so few severe cases and death. In that country their national food is KIM SHI containing raw fermented garlic in very high quantities.

If you cant find chloroquine or quercetin somewhere in case you have a respiratory viral infection looming then take your chance with Garlic which except the social distancing it automatically trigger, has no harmfull side effects (3 raw crushed cloves morning and evening with some olive oil) .

ZINC supplements are only a must if like 25 per cent of the general population you are ZINC deficient.

crazyworld
crazyworld

GET SOME EDUCATION SUCKERS

Very interesting article based on datas which SHOULD NOT BE COMPARED TOGETHER

  1. The coronavirus is originally a COLD virus not a flu virus. COLD infectivity curves must be compared with Covid infectivity curves.

  2. To compare curves of countries where it is summer all year with ours colds humid winter countries is also not correct.

  3. The figures from ASIA should be taken with precaution. Over here and in US everybody claim that protectives masks are not necessary to go outside and in the family home. The real reason is that we are good at producing financial bubbles but good for nothing else as there is for two months a scandalous penury of this product.
    So dont compare countries (ASIAN) locked down while making mask use obligatory to our countries where containment is very soft.

  4. It is too early to draw a lot of conclusions about severity rates and death rates as no one country has tested their whole population so far.

  5. The only reliable datas we are able to apply on our Western countries giving us a realistic idea of what could happen to us is ITALY. One thing is for SURE without containment people are going to dye everywhere (besides the hospitals) and in far greater numbers than if correctly serviced in hospitals.

Please use masks everywhere even makeshifts one when you encounter other peoples.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

I'm going to use this "Stay at Home" time to lose a few pounds on the spin bike, read up on skills for my next project, and do a few projects around the house that have been neglected due to long office hours.

ohno
ohno

Kansas City and some surrounding counties,also st joseph mo, have just issued stay at home. typical orders you can still shop and work essential jobs.

Capn Vic
Capn Vic

I've just noticed that the John's Hopkins site has not updated numbers since I looked last night at around 11:00 PM Central Time. The numbers and trends from the last week were certainly alarming. I just hope that these numbers are not getting suppressed or manipulated by the government.

tokidoki
tokidoki

From the South China Morning Post: "Coronavirus: ‘strange pneumonia’ seen in Lombardy in November, leading Italian doctor says "

Big if true. Predates Wuhan.

frozeninthenorth
frozeninthenorth

Interesting up here in Canada, we've got 1400 cases and a population of 37 million, which gives us an infection rate of 37.88 -- which is lower than the US. A little concerned with Europe where the infection rate is around 200/million.

Canada suggested that the border be shut for everything but essential travel (like food transport) and Trump's Xenophobic tendencies just paved the way for him to announce the shutdown. giving him kudos with the nationalist fringe -- and make all Canadians breath a little easier (no pun intended)

Stay safe, stay at least 2 meters away and have a nice day!

Realist
Realist

Rand Paul just tested positive.

Realist
Realist

Wow. 13,958 new cases today in the US on worldometer.

rafterman
rafterman

Perspective, even at the "what if" 100,000 cases in ten days scenario, that's about 300 cases per million people.

Using China's data ( I know it's questionable) but it's about 50 - 60 days further into this epidemic than the US, they have a recovered rate of about 88%

That leaves 264 of the 300 cases per million recovering.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"What exactly is alarming? New incidences don't lead to more deaths."

Beyond idiotic statement by JoJo

abend237-04
abend237-04

I sense a Chernobyl spin underway in the Russian nums.

Iowan
Iowan

What if we put it this way: 0.076% of the USA has COVID-19 (generously assuming 250k infections in a pop of 327 million). Is that really worth shutting EVERYTHING down for?

Or would a more rational, measured response be to isolate those who are elderly (and make up the vast majority of deaths), thus allowing a group immunity to form amongst those who are the 80%? I hear this being discussed by doctors but not politicians for some reason.


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