Coronavirus Facts: The Fact is, We Don't Know What the Facts Are

Mish

The number of deaths and thus the reported death rates from the coronavirus are more than a bit suspect.

I wish to emphasize a statement I made earlier today in Growing Number Airlines Suspend Flights to China

My comment today:

"The fact is, we do not know what the facts are."

We cannot trust reports from China.

Death Count Thread by William Yang

  1. Just to add a bit more to what was mentioned in the show but I wasn’t able to elaborate on - China’s state media has been reporting about building new hospitals dedicated to treating Wuhanvirus patients in multiple provinces and cities, which I think reflect the ..
  2. seriousness of the spread in China, but also the lack of facilities that can handle the rising number of patients. Also, one thing that China is hiding is the number of death caused by the virus. Credible Chinese media outlet @initiumnews interviewed people working at local cremation centers, confirming that many dead bodies were sent directly from the hospitals to the cremation centers...
  3. without properly identifying these patients, which means there are patients who died from the virus but not adding to the official record. That shows the current death toll of 133 that we are seeing is way too low. So there are reasons to remain skeptical about what China has been sharing with the world because while they have been more transparent about certain things related to the virus, they continue to be sketchy and unreliable in other aspects.

Here is the William Yang Tweet Thread.

Source of Claim

Partial Translation

Forty-year-old Zhao Yang (pseudonym) attended several funerals, but he did not expect that when his mother's turn came, he would be so hasty and "decent". His mother Liu Rong (pseudonym) developed symptoms of infection on January 6, and was admitted to the fever clinic of Tongji Hospital in Wuhan on the 13th. He died two days later. The doctor requested that he be immediately sent to Hankou Funeral Home for cremation that night. The funeral was completed on January 18.

His mother Liu Rong (pseudonym) developed symptoms of infection on January 6, and was admitted to the fever clinic of Tongji Hospital in Wuhan on the 13th. He died two days later. The doctor requested that he be immediately sent to Hankou Funeral Home for cremation that night. The funeral was completed on January 18.

Reporting Stopped

Official Counts

US Sec of State Consider Travel Ban

Also note: 'Get it right': Pompeo mulls China travel ban over coronavirus outbreak

“Well, look, the State Department constantly evaluates risk to travelers,” Pompeo told reporters on Wednesday during a flight to London. “That includes travel advisories that could encompass a wide range of things, including banning travel. All of those things will constantly be under consideration.”

“It appears that this coronavirus has a long incubation period, and asymptomatic persons may be able to transmit the virus,” Sen. Tom Cotton, an Arkansas Republican who has worked closely with Pompeo for years, wrote in a Tuesday letter to the administration. “Given these dangerous circumstances, a targeted travel ban is warranted to protect Americans until we know more about the virus and the outbreak is under control.”

Mass Hysteria?

Some people label this mass hysteria.

The more rational among us recognize it's the only reasonable way we have right now to stop the spread.

Then, assuming it works, those accusing others of promoting mass hysteria will thump their chests and say "See, I told you so."

Chinese Officials Lock Virus Infected Persons Inside Their Apartments!

Image placeholder title

Inside China there is panic.

Please note Chinese Officials Lock Virus Infected Persons Inside Their Apartments!

Click on the above link to see two videos of officials locking people inside their homes.

In one video, an entire apartment complex is boarded up.

12 of the 206 Japanese Evacuees from Wuhan Have Symptoms

Three Confirmed

New England Journal of Medicine

Please consider this article on the Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus by the New England Journal of Medicine emphasis mine.

Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).

On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere.

I believe the statement "Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere," speaks as to the seriousness of the issue.

Doubting the Reported Reductions

The development of the epidemic follows an exponential growth in cases, and a decline in the most recent days is likely to be due to under-ascertainment of cases with recent onset and delayed identification and reporting rather than a true turning point in incidence.

It is possible that subsequent control measures in Wuhan, and more recently elsewhere in the country as well as overseas, have reduced transmissibility, but the detection of an increasing number of cases in other domestic locations and around the world suggest that the epidemic has continued to increase in size.

That report came out today.

Note their r0 rate best guess is 2.2 in a range of 1.4 to a whopping 3.9. That means each person who gets the disease is likely to transmit the disease to 2.2 others. This is very serious.

Downplaying the threat based on questionable counts is ridiculous.

Walking Pneumonia and Children Carriers

Bloomberg reports 10-Year-Old Boy Raises Fears Wuhan Virus Could Spread Undetected

A boy and his family flew to Wuhan on December 29. In three to five days four family members had symptoms. After they returned home, a relative who did not travel had symptoms. Thye all tested positive.

The boy had no symptoms but also tested positive. He was a walking carrier.

Bloomberg reports similar patterns are appearing outside China. Four cases in Germany were linked to a company training event that was attended by a colleague visiting from China who had no symptoms of disease during her stay.

China Insider

Bianco's Latest Chart

Martenson On Track

Question of the Day

Still believe those official death totals and those mocking others about allegedly low transmission rates, death rates, and the seriousness of this all?

Chinese actions prove we cannot trust "official" counts from China.

And what about the kids with "Walking Pneumonia"? Not to worry, such reports are clearly part of the mass hysteria.

Those citing low death and transmission rates apparently do believe the "official" lies.

I suspect some of those on Twitter downplaying this mess are Chinese puppets whose job is to convince people this is not as serious as it looks.

Regardless, downplaying the risks as if this is a China-only problem while ignoring the threat of "Walking Pneumonia" and more lethal mutations is ridiculous.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (10)
No. 1-8
Latkes
Latkes

Thailand says they are unable to stop the spread.
"At least 22,000 people from Wuhan are believed to have visited in January"

Still no deaths outside of China. Very small sample size outside of China anyway.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

Updated Hubei ratio of deaths:recovered on the John Hopkins map this evening is 162:90, which is still roughly 2:1, as has been the case for awhile now. Not good.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

Russia just banned flights from China. When will the US? At least the flight from China to CA today evacuating 200 Americans was diverted to a military base so the passengers could be properly isolated and checked.

Alanki
Alanki

“ Credible Chinese media” Theinitiumnews... We shall see how credible this site is, i guess...

truthseeker
truthseeker

Keep up the good work Mish. You will never be criticized for over dramatizing this historical event. You are giving us all plenty of time to take the necessary steps to get our families prepared for whatever is coming, so you are perhaps a great patriot!

david wiliam
david wiliam

Novel Coronavirus is now a global issue and several countries are facing a crucial situation to prevent the spread of this virus. plane crews are not permitted to land in several countries who return from china. I am planning to write my book review for me on coronavirus to raise awareness among the people.

RayLopez
RayLopez

This thread is good and very prescient for such an early date. I recommend it be locked to preserve it for future posterity!


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