Coronavirus Deaths Top 250, 8th Infection in US

Mish

The coronavirus death toll hit 259 February 1. The number of deaths and infections are widely believed underreported.

The lead image is from Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Spread of the Outbreak.

Researchers at Northeastern University and Imperial College London estimate that the number of cases may be five or ten times higher than what has been reported. Thousands of suspected cases are yet to be confirmed with tests, and others with the virus may not have sought medical attention.

A second global map shows 7 infections in the US, but moments ago there was an 8th confirmed US case.

The latest is in Massachusetts. Previously confirmed cases are from California (3), Illinois (2), Arizona and Washington.

As of Saturday, the flu-like virus had killed at least 259 people, all of them in China.

Economic Disruption

Via NBC News

Spring Festival holiday extended in Hubei province: The Spring Festival holiday has been extended until Feb. 13, officials in the Hubei province have said in a statement. The city of Wuhan — the epicenter of the disease — sits in the region. This was to prevent the spread of the virus, the statement said, adding that schools and colleges would remain closed for that time and workers unable to take leave, would be compensated under Chinese labor laws.

Apple closes all offices, stores and contact centers in mainland China: The tech giant said Saturday it will be closing all of its offices, stores and contact centers in mainland China “out of an abundance of caution and based on the latest advice from leading health experts.” The measure will be in force until Feb. 9, the company said, adding that it "looked forward" to reopening its stores as soon as possible.

Flight attendants demand flights to China are halted: The Association of Flight Attendants, representing 50,000 flight attendants at 20 airlines has called for "clear direction from our government to U.S. airlines to pull down all travel to China until the spread of coronavirus is contained,” in a statement.

The "holiday" extension is really a lockdown measure telling people to stay put.

Supply chain disruptions are mounting as people are not going to work. Factories are closed.

Economic Impact Unknown

Jim Bianco Tracks the Spread

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Bianco Comments on Spread

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1223602723381284866

Estimating the China Monday Open

I am certain that his comment "Jail Short Sellers" was either sarcasm or his expected Chinese reaction, not his belief as to what should happen.

Question of the Day

Comment of the Day

"If anyone was wondering what a decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies looks like, we're kind of getting a natural experiment."

CDC Quarantines 195 US Citizens, Prepares for Pandemic

Also consider CDC Quarantines 195 US Citizens, Prepares for Pandemic

We are preparing as if this is the next pandemic, but we are hoping that is not the case,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of National Center For Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (54)
No. 1-17
TimeToTest
TimeToTest

I always look off into the future and wonder what’s next.

I think we have passes the golden point for mankind for a little while.

I don’t see anyway pain is not the outcome from this combination of free money, declining birth rates and a mass die off.

The irony is this is exponential growth is always the goal even for a virus.

Mish
Mish

Editor

I am optimistic about controlling this in the US, but I could be wrong. Thailand is questionable. Japan, don't know.

Supply chain disruptions are likely to be a disaster.

HYDRODAM
HYDRODAM

I think the US markets don't care , and the Chinese markets would not care if they can cover up best as possible . Monday - same ole same ole

NY Geezer
NY Geezer

I am pessimistic. Health care relating to this new corona virus is free in China. Although we are alarmed at the number of cases in China, the authorities there may be minimizing the virus' spread.

The US has a health care system that many people are afraid to use for fear of being bankrupted by catastrophic medical bills. I doubt that people in the US will rush to their local ERs at the fist sign of a fever or other corona virus symptom. People in the US are much more likely to endure their symptoms at home or at work until they get so sick that they are forced into quarantine. In the interim each person can infect many more persons than their Chinese counterparts, and the US RO could be very high.

ksdude69
ksdude69

Go to youtube and watch the newest video by adapt2030 on this topic if you want your hair to fall out. You might need to fast forward a few minutes to get past his past era technology theory which is pretty off topic compared to the rest of the video. Pretty riveting.

St. Funogas
St. Funogas

As of this morning 143 people outside of China were reported infected. From the cases outside of China, we should at least start getting some more realistic mortality rate numbers. They will still be skewed to the high side for the reasons NY Geezer mentioned but at least we can get a better guess as to whether this is going to be closer to the Spanish flu or the common flu in terms of death rates. The more this progresses, the more refined that number will become and the more intelligently we can all respond. In the meantime, better safe than sorry.

sangell
sangell

I was in San Francisco when the AIDs epidemic broke out in the early 80's. While little was known about the disease ( and despite the best efforts of the gay community to imply everyone was at risk) it was soon clear it wasn't an airborne disease infecting anyone. 200 plus per month were soon dying ( in a city of 750,000) so but they didn't drop dead in days! China is in deep trouble. You can't look down megalopolises for more than a week or two before supplies run out. At some point there is going to be a massive bankrun as people without incomes have to withdraw whatever cash they have. I doubt the regime will survive the coming shocks.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Official deaths on the John Hopkins site are now 304, with none outside of China. Nevertheless, there was indeed a death in Malaysia a few days ago:

Good news in today's report is that deaths did not grow as fast as infections. If you guesstimate that the actual death rate is (today's reported deaths)/(infections five days ago), the death rate estimate dropped under 10% today, to 7%.

More good news is that the number of people who have recovered now exceeds they number who are deceased, for the first time since the pandemic started.

shamrock
shamrock

The Simpsons, Season 4, Episode 21. China is still shipping Juice Looseners contaminated with virus.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Just for reference, the first nCoV patient in the US in Everett, WA now just has a cough after going through a battery of symptoms and quarantine. It seems like there a decent protocol to help patients survive this but it does require hospitalization.

crazyworld
crazyworld

RESEARCH MADE ON SURVIVAL OF SARS_CORONA VIRUS ON A SUPPORT OUTSIDE THE PATIENT;

Is it safe to keep receiving fast delivered packages from China? It depends upon the delivery delay, temperature , hygrometry and last but not least the eventual measures of disinfection taken by the shipping organisation.

This a link to a scientific study which point out the outstanding life duration of some SARS-CORONA virus outside of a patient. Some research showed up to 28 days of partial survival depending on temperature and hygrometry exposures.

alanking
alanking

still waiting for the 100,000 infected as "predicted" in the next 2 days.... zzzzz

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

Just to remind people Apple shut down China.

Foxconn is most likely going to shut down.

The iPhone is 2.65% of the NASDAQ. One product by itself.

Carl_R
Carl_R

More good news today. The recovery rate now exceeds the death rate, but that's just the tip of the good news. If you look at data from all places other than the Wuhan area, deaths are only 11, and the number recovered is 176. It would appear that initial deaths were very high because of the insufficiency of medical care. We may see the growth in the number deaths decline rapidly, now that the first additional 1000 bed hospital is open, and even more when the second one comes online later this week.

Carl_R
Carl_R

This news is deserving of a separate post from Mish, but Chris Martensen found a non-peer reviewed article from China that computes that the actual R0 is 4.08, and the actual fatality rate is 6.5%. However, if the time each infected person is out in public spreading the disease is reduced to 2.3 days or less, the R0 drops to under 1, and the disease will die out on it's own. That explains why China has gone into a complete lockdown. Even if we don't believe the numbers could be that high, the Chinese obviously do.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Eleven cases now in the US, including the second case of a spouse catching it from their mate. Also new, the major news services are finally starting to cover the coronavirus story:
Fox - has had a top story on it for a couple days
CNN - I'm unable to view them due to some issue in my browser settings
ABC - Has it on page 1 for the first time
CBS - has a special drop down tab for it on page 1
NBC - has it on page 1
NPR - has no story on the actual virus until well down the page, but mentions the new Wuhan hospital
MSNBC - has very little, but they aren't a full news service
Yahoo - has a story buried well down the page

On the whole this reflects a significant increase in coverage, and i didn't see any of the stories which included what they had been saying all last week, something along the line of "well, this is very interesting, but the true danger, of course, is the normal flu, which has killed over 8000 this year, compared to xxx for the coronavirus".

FloydVanPeter
FloydVanPeter

Prophetic


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