Coronavirus Deaths Surge, No Containment In Sight

Mish

As the coronavirus "official" death toll nears 500, hospitals in China turn away cases.

Most Cases in a Single Day

Hopes of containment we shattered as the WHO comments a on a new surge coronavirus cases surge: Most Cases in a Single Day.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news conference that the reported cases are “the most cases in a single day since the outbreak started” Dec. 31.

Infectious disease specialists and scientists say the virus may be more contagious than current data shows. Data on the virus is changing by the day, and some infectious disease specialists say it will take weeks before they can see just how contagious it is.

The respiratory illness is not yet considered a pandemic. A pandemic is “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people,” according to WHO.

Looks Like a Pandemic

But hey, the WHO officials say it isn't.

China Clamps Down On Coverage

Things are always worse than reported in China, especially when there is a Media Clampdown.

There is a new crackdown on the media and on the internet, and it signals an effort to control the narrative about a crisis that has become a once-in-a-generation challenge for leaders in Beijing.

Nearly 500 people in China have died from the virus, health officials said on Wednesday, and thousands more are being infected every day, fueling fears that the virus’s spread is not being adequately controlled.

And internet platforms have removed several articles that suggest shortcomings in the Chinese government’s response or are otherwise negative about the outbreak. Local officials have also cracked down on what they call online “rumors” about the virus.

Wuhan Coronavirus Hospitals Turn Away All but Most Severe Cases

The WSJ reports Wuhan Coronavirus Hospitals Turn Away All but Most Severe Cases

Designated hospitals in the Chinese city at the center of a coronavirus outbreak started taking only severe or critical patients, as more Chinese cities imposed restrictions on movement to help contain the fast-spreading pathogen that has killed nearly 500 people.

“The medical resources in Wuhan, especially the ICU team, are not enough to deal with this severe treatment,” he said in an interview Tuesday with state broadcaster China Central Television. The death rate from the virus in the city is 4.9%, more than twice the nationwide 2.1%, according to the health commission.

Cities throughout China are putting increasingly severe restrictions on residents. Zhumadian, a city in Henan province—which borders the outbreak-stricken province of Hubei—is allowing one person per household to leave every five days to buy supplies.

At least a half-dozen Chinese cities, including the tech hub of Hangzhou, near Shanghai, have imposed similar regulations, though typically allowing shopping every other day. Wuhan, Hubei’s capital, has been under lockdown for two weeks.

Bianco Update Yesterday

My Update Yesterday

Hiding Body Bags

Diamond Princess Cruise Quarantined

Coronavirus Passed on to Unborn

Still Growing Exponentially

How Many Deaths? 25,000?

25,000 deaths is more believable than 500. You do not lock up 60 million people over 500 deaths.

A half-dozen cities allow one person per household to leave their homes every five days to buy supplies.

And the death total is 500. Yeah, right.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (37)
No. 1-14
ksdude69
ksdude69

I'm thinking 25k way more realistic considering actions taken. Probably a good idea to keep an eye on things real close in the US in case it's time to make a run to Aldis, the stock up store, before everyone else does.

Latkes
Latkes

That Tencent bit is most likely a hoax.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

I'm an err on side of caution sort.

Took a quick peek of Washington Post / Fox News / Drudge / NBC headlines and you have to squint to find any mention of virus.

Must not disturb our false idol, I guess.

Hope we are at least preparing behind the scenes.

truthseeker
truthseeker

154,023 estimated infections, 24,589 estimated deaths, good grief that’s a 6 to 1 ratio of infections to deaths-could it really be that bad?Have I made a mistake here somewhere?

abend237-04
abend237-04

Chinese politicians don't hold the rights to lying as a crisis management tactic. ("When it gets serious, you have to lie." European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker's 2011 comment re Greek debt crisis.), however, I'm becoming suspicious.

The first WHO situation report on January 21st, Wuhan had 258 cases of Coronavirus, including 51 severely ill, 12 critical and six deaths. Based ostensibly on this, they began actual construction of a 1,000 bed hospital in Wuhan four days later, finishing it in ten days.

I'm having a problem imagining the following conversation taking place between Beijing and Wuhan authorities:
Wuhan: We need help. We want to build a 1,000 bed hospital.

Beijing: Understood. How many actual deaths do you now have?

Wuhan: Six.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

Major Chinese cities are still on lock-down with an uncertain outlook about when the quarantines will end. Trucks are spraying disinfectant in the empty streets. Evacuation flights to Wuhan by other countries are restricted to using the airport during nighttime hours only. There are multiple separately leaked stories over the last week about the crematoriums running 24/7. Any media out of China that is not state sanctioned is increasingly sparse.

I cannot imagine the Chinese Communist Party taking such extreme measures if doing nothing meant 2% of their population might die. The reality must be much, much more grim.

lol
lol

Or was it a bioweapon that released "accidently" to see the effects of in real time?Chinese people were bein used as lab rats in an experiment that went south quick.Will the PLA next move to deploy the nerve toxin in Walmarts all over US?

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

If this thing was engineered the Chinese government knows what it is. That might account for the massive response to this.

What we know about this virus is- nothing. Not the R0, not the actual dead rate or the rate of complications. We know nothing except there is a massive response to this by the Chinese government.

The Chinese government has put their economy at risk to fight this somewhat proactively. Government are not proactive. That’s scary.

Mike Deadmonton
Mike Deadmonton

The average mortality rate in China is about 8 deaths per 1000 lives per year. Wuhan has a population of 19 Million. Do some math and you come up with a figure of 415 people in Wuhan moving on to the next phase of life everyday. So, the number bandied about are not significant in the overall picture. The pressure on hospitals must be significant though since many of the sick probably require ICU time. I suspect there is an under reporting of the number of infections as many who are infected will probably stay to fight it out. I think a young lady who showed up in the Canadian hospital system was kept for a few days but quickly released after what was reported a mild infection.

QuantumCalculus
QuantumCalculus

We don't really know much about this virus. I'm a skeptic about our ability to handle this crisis in a timely manner.

The solar minimum, the rise of cosmic rays, and the cooling of the climate will cause a world famine in just a few years.

Starvation and pandemics like this one will cause half the population of our planet to perish in the coming decade. We will be on the edge of extinction if we do not band together. This is a time for nationalism.

We need to build more bunkers, focus on investing in vertical farms, and prepare, prepare, prepare. Preppers, the brunt of many jokes, may have the last laugh when SHTF happens. I see the way the Chinese built those hospitals, how fast. I applaud them. Can we do the same here, right now. The number one priority is infrastructure spending building bridges, highways, and hospitals. Put people to work, build up America, make us strong. Let's make a difference.

This pandemic will create a global recession by 2021. The stock market will lose nearly 82% of its value over the first two years of that bleak period. The banks are still broken from 2008. We are so vulnerable at this moment in history. Bank balance sheets, derivatives, and the like--its a house of cards. There's a reason why I can't get any interest on my savings account. That's proof enough of how bad things are today. And consumer credit rates are high. Debt levels are astonishing.

If the Spanish Flu killed nearly 60% of the people in Philadelphia, and similar death rates happened in other city across America, what chance do we have today? Particularly if a cooling climate lowers our crop yields, and the world enters a decade where famine spreads across the planet. We do not have enough hospitals, doctors, nurses, or crematoriums in this country to handle this---right now. It will require sacrifice by everyone, to volunteer, help out, and build a strong community. Get educated. Make yourself useful.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Looking at the daily records, containment seems to working very effectively. Even based on official records, Hubei is still seeing a 20% daily increase in cases, which is what happens when it gets out, with no effort to contain it, and the death rate there is still high, which is what happens when you don't have proper facilities and staff to treat the needed patients.

Outside of Hubei, the cases are rising more slowly each day, now at about 12% a day. Outside of China, where the records we can mostly believe, the infection rate is only rising 7% a day. Both rates are lower all the time. Prompt action, and quarantining anyone suspected of exposure, and preventing a situation where it is spreading freely in the wild.... for now, at least.

The data from Wuhan shows how important it is to catch it early, and address it aggressively. If a country lets down it's guard, it could explode at any time, though. Japan, Singapore and S. Korea seem to be the most at risk.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Excluding China, the number of new cases reported per day, with data from 1/23 to 2/5:
14,11,15,17,7,23,18,13,35,21,9,7,23,46,51

Where it goes from here is really important, and will tell us a lot about how successful the containment has been. In the early days, the cases were almost all people who had been to China in general, and Wuhan in particular. The recent cases are mostly human-human transmissions outside of China. Several factors affect what we are seeing. First, air travel was still going on early in this time, but then it got mostly shut down. Second, it takes time for a person who has been exposed to develop symptoms.

My reading of this data is that early on there was a fairly steady supply of new potential cases from people coming back from China, and that, as new cases arriving from China diminished due to ceasing travel, a few human transmission cases appeared, keeping the numbers about constant. Since it takes awhile for newly infected people to show symptoms, and given the efforts to limit the number of people exposed, the growth in human transmission cases outside of China has been slow.

What happens next? Is the 7, 23, 46 of the last three days the start of an exponential rise, as the coronavirus breaks out of containment? Or, is it an insignificant blip? Are we looking at waves, where the first infection wave was "7,23,18,13,35", and then after a few days for the next infection cycle to begin, a second wave, 50% stronger than the first began "7,23,46,51..."

Only time can answer that.

Edit - i had an error in my spreadsheet, which i fixed. Due to the massive number of cases on the Japanese Cruise ship, the non China cases took a huge spike up the last two days. However, since those cases were confined to the cruise ship, the only people at risk are the other passengers on the ship, not the entire country of Japan.

William Janes
William Janes

Please no more hype on these hospital warehouses that the CCP built as propaganda memes. Any developed country can put up prefab warehouse in a short amount of time if necessary. They are irrelevant. What is necessary is for the Chinese Communist Party to reveal the real truth behind this massive epidemic? I am still waiting.


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