Coronavirus Death and Illness Stats Update

Mish

Mainstream media is slow to update. Instead, let's check into some Tweets.

For background information including an explanation of the virus, please see China Locks Down 7 Cities as Deadly Virus Spreads.

Comparison to the Flu and Rebuttals

The fact that China has quarantined over 20 million people speaks to the perceived seriousness of the threat.

25 Deaths and 830 Confirmed Cases

WHO Official Via NYT: “Make no mistake. This is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one.”

Only five global public health emergency declarations have been made in the past. The decisions are fraught, with health authorities wary of causing panic, or of suggesting that governments cannot handle outbreaks on their own.

Collapsing on the Street

City of Taiyuan (4 million people) Hit

Ignore the BS about Trump in the above Tweet. Conspiracy theories of all sorts running rampant now.

Suspected Texa A&M Case

Hospital Runs Out of Beds

WHO Says No Public Health Emergency of International Concern Today

I suspect they will change their tune soon.

This is the Last Place I Would Be

Anyone in line who did not have it before, probably does now

Phase 4

Washington State

Conspiracy Theory of the Day

There are also Tweets blaming the CIA and a person I refuse to name for fear of spreading nonsense.

I scoff at such theories.

US Tests

NJ, CA, TX, WA all testing cases.

Word About Conspiracy Theories

Psychology Today addresses What Makes People Believe in Conspiracy Theories?

Half of the US population believes in at least one political or medical conspiracy theory. So belief in conspiracy theories is far more “normal” than many of us might think.

The popularity of films like JFK, The Manchurian Candidate, and Conspiracy Theory illustrates how many of us can be drawn to a good conspiracy theory. Over the two past years, half of the country has been anxiously expecting that the Mueller report would reveal one of the biggest conspiracy plots in American history, while the other half believes that the conspiracy was the Mueller investigation itself. And of course, occasionally conspiracy theories turn out to be true!

All of us are susceptible to confirmation bias—the tendency to reinforce pre-existing beliefs when we look for information. With the amount of information available online that's tailored to our interests and preferences, we’re now living in an era of “confirmation bias on steroids.”

Understanding the Scale

  • The population of Chicago is 2.7 million.
  • The Chicago metro area population is 9.5 million.
  • The population of New York City is 8.6 million.
  • The New York City metro area population is 20.1 million.
  • The population of London is 8.8 million
  • The London metro area population is 13.7 million.
  • The population of Illinois is 12.7 million

To my knowledge, trying to contain a city of 11 million people is new to science. It has not been tried before as a public-health measure, so we cannot at this stage say it will or will not work,” Gauden Galea, the World Health Organization’s country representative for China, said in an interview.

Tom Inglesby, an expert on epidemics who is director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said “large-scale quarantine efforts in the past have not been successful in changing the outcome of disease outbreaks.”

Because of its key role in domestic transportation, Wuhan is sometimes referred to as "the Chicago of China" by foreign sources.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (47)
No. 1-21
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

The fact that China has quarantined millions of people validates the idea the rest of the world should quarantine China.

Latkes
Latkes

Is the global pandemic happening before or after the war with Iran?

BoneIdle
BoneIdle

Trains, planes and now roads are being blocked to prevent travel .Road share companies are stopping operation. People are being urged to stay at home.
25 million people are being quarantined in.
So either this is a huge over reaction or the Chinese Government knows something we don't know.

Matson
Matson

China fears social upheaval more than a simple outbreak of disease. They also tend to apply a "sledgehammer to kill a fly" approach to create the illusion of government power in action....because the illusion satisfies the needs of the CCP over the needs of the people..... every single time!

CorporateSlave
CorporateSlave

Reports on weibo (chinnese social media), are claiming that the infection numbers in Wuhan are anywhere from the low thousands to 10,000+. People are saying that most infected are not even going to the hospital, and that you can be infected and not have a fever. The incubation time is not known, but is long, more than a week. There is widespread fear in China that the government is lying about the numbers

Greggg
Greggg

I'm waiting to see who has the "miracle cure" for the Virus of the Year this time:
"Donald Rumsfeld and other politically connected investors in Gilead Sciences, the California biotech company that owns the rights to Tamiflu, the influenza remedy that’s now the most-sought after drug in the world.
Rumsfeld served as Gilead <http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?shownav=true&symb=GILD> (Research <http://cnnfn.investor.reuters.com/Reports.aspx?ticker=GILD> )’s chairman from 1997 until he joined the Bush administration in 2001, and he still holds a Gilead stake valued at between $5 million and $25 million, according to federal financial disclosures filed by Rumsfeld". https://ahrp.org/sec-defense-rumsfeld-tamiflu-holdings/

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Given how often diseases have started in China, if I were the Chinese government I'd know that if the quarantine turns out to be an over-reaction, then some of the down-side of the over reaction will be paid for by the experience gained from doing the quarantine.

johnrick01
johnrick01

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Ted R
Ted R

Mother Natures way of thinning out the heard. I bet the Chinese government would love to get rid of a few million(or more) of their people. Especially with their economy tanking.

awc13
awc13

well, this didn't take long. i had a yearly check up dr. appointment this morning. when i checked in they had a number of questions about if i had traveled to china, any friends or family have traveled to china recently, etc.

Sechel
Sechel

I've seen regular updates on this story on south morning china post, financial times, reuters and the wall street journal. No need for tweet mining.

KidHorn
KidHorn

Bought a couple boxes of surgical masks. For $40, it may be well worth it. Last time I did this, the masks were used up. I think my wife wears them when she cleans the bathroom.

moyerdere2
moyerdere2

Yes, flu kills 250K a year, but the problem is that there are flu shots, people have some immunity to the flu, and the death rate is like 0.1%.
This is possibly as contagious as the flu, has a current death rate of 3%, has no cure or vaccine. That 250k turns into 7.5 million......, if it gets widespread.
That is the fear. This has to be contained.

AWC
AWC

This flu bug meme is certainly stealing the thunder from the ruling classes Peach Mint reality TV series on cable neuuws.

ksdude69
ksdude69

Urged to stay home. Will the bills get paid? Will someone bring me food? If I get sick does my social score go to zero? Not hard to see what a disaster it could turn into.

moyerdere2
moyerdere2

Also, how long do people in Chinese cities stay quarantined? People will start to flee at some point.

Hammeringtruth1
Hammeringtruth1

Chinese eating live mice and bats: https://youtu.be/myHCdK9OMec

Sechel
Sechel

Not to be disrespectful of the gravitas but what's the hit to China's GDP. I think I saw Mike Pettis still sticking to China's 6% number. More cities under lock down. This can't be good for economic output.

jivefive99
jivefive99

You cant believe ANYTHING the Chinese government is saying. They want their government to be known for not being trusted and thats exactly what they have. I would like to point out the Y2K disaster, the running out of oil disaster, and dozens of other pieces of "disaster content" that substitutes for news these days ... you cant have the weather segment eight times an hour forever. Find some real news and everyone stop panicking.