Coronavirus Anger Rises as 9,692 Infected and a Massive 102,427 Monitored

Mish

The geometric rise in coronavirus infections, suspects, deaths, and patients monitored continues unabated.

The Financial Times reports Coronavirus Cases in China Exceed Sars as Public Anger Rises.

Officially Admitted Stats as Noted by FT

  • Admitted Infections: 9,692
  • Admitted Death Toll: 213
  • Admitted Suspected Cases: 15,238
  • Admitted Monitoring: 102,427

The FT reported that broadcaster Tang Zhihong, head of the local centre for disease control, posted a 4-minute clip on the coronavirus that was viewed 35 million times. Tang could not (or would not) answer basic questions.

“Our taxpayers’ money goes to support this group of good-for-nothings,” said a top comment on the video, garnering 100,000 likes.

Ms. Tang was relieved of her duties within hours.

WHO Finally Declares Emergency

Earlier today, the totally incompetent World Health Organization (WHO) finally saw fit to declare this an emergency now that Coronavirus Infection and Death Rates Surpass SARS.

Click on that link for another set of excellent chart from Jim Bianco.

Q&A With Michael Pettis on the Coronavirus Impact

In case you missed it, please consider Q&A With Michael Pettis on the Coronavirus Impact

Coronavirus Facts

Unfortunately, The Fact is, We Don't Know What the Facts Are

No one in their right mind believes the official stats from China, even as bad as they are.

How Big is the Lie?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (72)
No. 1-16
Carl_R
Carl_R

The last four days the number infected have gone up 62%, 36%, 28%, and 25%. Does that indicate that the rate of increase in infections is slowing due to quarantines and other precautions? Or that reporting can't keep up? Or something else? Let's hope it is the former, and that it continues to slow.

Russell J
Russell J

I agree 100% this "official" death rate must be BS. 200 people dying of the flu over 2 weeks during flu season in a nation of 1 billion wouldn't even register on anyones radar. 200 people an hour probably die of heart attack every day of the year there. I heard in a movie once it takes 12 days for 1 million seconds to tick by and 32 years for 1 billion, so 200 people dying over a 2 week period of almost anything wouldn't even be noticed. There has to be much more going on than the "flu" or the death rate must be far greater than their admitting.

Stuki
Stuki

Chinese doctors, and other health practitioners, are unusually well primed for picking up this sort of thing, from the background noise of more common flues and other respiratory ailments. They’re the land of SARS, and other outbreaks, after all. A novel virus outbreak, is just closer to the top of the mind of a physician with a seemingly healthy patient suddenly succumbing to a respiratory ailment they cannot treat, in China, than it would be in most other places.

If you look at the Lancet article linked in one of Mish’ previous posts, gene sequences done on 9 patients indicate this outbreak was picked up very early. Almost no genome difference between the sample from each patient, despite corona viruses, (and viruses in general) mutating rapidly. Indicating these 9 are likely to be among the very first hosts for a distinct new virus.

“Distinct” and “New” are pretty scary as far as virus’ go, as it indicates very little immunity. Then combine that with “Deadly.” And, by now, also “Human to Human transmissible…..”

Hence, even though raw numbers may not yet warrant this sort of a reaction, the sheer uncertainty of such an outbreak is what is driving it.

Greggg
Greggg

Medcram.com has some good explanations.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

No one has asked the obvious. Why are the 3 main viral outbreaks of the last 2 decades originate from China ? MERS, SARS, and now nCoV all have their roots in China. Is it too much of the poultry not being checked for viruses ? Is it eating things that shouldn't be eaten or lack of sanitary conditions in wildlife markets ? Serious questions need to be asked and changes need to be made by the communist/socialist government of China. Maybe they wanted this to happen at some level to reduce their population. It is literally turning into a grave global risk.

crazyworld
crazyworld

POSSIBLY BEING ON THE DEATH ROW

I dont fear death but I fear suffering-decaying before dying. As I am more than 60 years old and besides that I suffer from a severe hearth failure (with the typical chronic water retention in the lungs) I am fulfilling the specifications of a majority of people dying from that disease.
My best hope is to try to remain uninfected till hopefully a vaccine (provided the virus dont mutate) will be available. When I observe the speed of transmission in China despites strong measures taken (I dont think over here in Europe they are able to take such strong measures) it is difficult as of now to assess if that will be possible or not . The vaccine will be distributed at best around June-July this year.

mrutkaus
mrutkaus

From a People's Pharmacy newsletter yesterday, speaking of 'normal' US flu cases, not the new coronavirus:

"I pointed out that as of last week the CDC was estimating that 15 million people in the U.S. had come down with influenza, 140,000 had been hospitalized and 8,200 people had died from the flu."

BoneIdle
BoneIdle

I don’t know whether or not the doctors giving out this information are behind the eight ball or not. It seems to contradict most information from other sources.
The doctors in this report infer this corona virus is not airborne

thankyoumrdata
thankyoumrdata

A couple of points of interest. (Written from USA perspective, as will soon be obvious)

Some years ago, CMMS passed a rule that if a patient got "ventilator associated pneumonia," the hospital would not be reimbursed for the admission. The rate of this diagnosis immediately dropped to almost zero. Hospitals made committees to review every suspected case and, surprise, the reviews almost always found another "more appropriate" diagnosis. (Epilogue: CMMS was very proud of nearly eradicating the illness.)

That's in the USA. A host of people acting in their own short-term best interest destroyed a reporting system. Now think about China. It's not like some powerful Chinese politician knows how many people are dying of coronavirus there. They have no idea, and neither do we. They are reporting the confirmed cases that could not be ignored or hidden.

On the flip side, I think people dramatically underestimate the superior ability of a developed nation with relative information transparency to respond to such things. We all know that this single-party communist system can't get things right, yet for some reason we believe that, because they are authoritarian, they will be "better at quarantines" than us.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Despite our own leaders often having their heads... in a place the sun doesn't shine, we have a variety of massive advantages.

A) A powerful fourth estate and (relative, but very strong) media transparency. The number of confirmed cases goes from five to six in this country and literally everyone paying attention knows, in two hours. In China (I blame the government, not the people), news agencies only report what they are told, and people like Mish etc. are imprisoned and/or executed.

B) A free and informed populace is empowered to behave much more sensibly than one in a repressed dictatorship where the facts are hidden as long as they can be. Believe it or not, people mostly comply with quarantines around here. The public widely supports rational emergency measures to contain illnesses. If a doctor thinks you might have active tuberculosis, you try to get out of your containment room. Good luck with that. You will be stopped by democratically empowered security backed by massive public support. If your case made the news, the vast majority of commenters would talk about nothing but how dumb you were. A free security force backed by a free, informed public is far more effective than any authoritarian one.

Unlike the story I told above, if someone finds a case of novel coronavirus in the USA, their self interest is clearly in favor of telling everyone, immediately.

C) An abundance and flexibility of resources. We are much worse at stifling wealth than China, so we have it, and we have robust systems. It would be comparatively very hard to overwhelm this system. Every hospital will make a plan to be prepared in advance. I saw it with Ebola. We prepared incredibly hard for what was ultimately zero cases.

None of this means that nothing bad will happen here. We could still experience exponential growth here. But RO and case fatality are both strongly affected by systems -- and our systems are very different.

St. Funogas
St. Funogas

A huge factor is bats and another huge factor is the meat markets in China. MERS is from Saudia Arabia, not Asia. If you look at Figure 3 in the link below, it shows a sort of "genealogy chart" (phylogenetic tree) of a bunch of different coronaviruses (CoV's)and how they are related. Look at how closely related SARS is to all those bat CoV's below it. Same thing with the Wuhan CoV. The common denominator is bats. We know from camel antibodies that bats transferred MERS to camels and camels to humans, we just don't know how exactly. Since bats are hibernating right now, it's unlikely one was at the market in December to pass the Wuhan CoV on to a human so again, some other mammal was most likely the host.

So what is different about the China bats and China markets? I've traveled all over southeast Asia and two southern provinces of China and their meat markets are all just as unsanitary as the next. It doesn't necessarily seem like a sanitation issue: if the meat is infected, it's going to pass the virus on in sanitary conditions just as well as it will in unsanitary conditions. Remember mad cow disease? Not a virus but the same idea. That was happening in sanitary European markets.

Since we're only talking about two rogue CoV's here, SARS and nCoV, it could just be that there are a lot more variations of CoV in Chinese bat populations to begin with, therefore, a lot higher probability that something affecting humans will arise in China.

Ken Kam
Ken Kam

What I don't get so far is why so much is made of this virus when 1000s of people die of the flu every year? What makes this particular flu so different?

ksdude69
ksdude69

How's this silver lining for the US going to work if we have let in countless flights from China and haven't quarantined a single person and this stuff starts popping up all over the US. And it's probably in Mexico coming across the border freely as well.

ksdude69
ksdude69

How's that Yuan reserve currency working?

njbr
njbr

...Zhan Qingyuan, head of infectious diseases at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, said in a press briefing on Friday that people who had already had the virus would have developed antibodies but should remain on alert so they did not get ill again.
“The antibodies may not remain for a long time, so there is still a risk that these recovered patients will be infected again,” Zhan said. “They should continue to keep themselves protected.”...

Carl_R
Carl_R

What is the real death rate? Chris Martinson argued that since it takes awhile to die, you should compare the present number of reported deaths with the number of cases about 5 days earlier, since virtually all of the deaths as of today would be among the cases already on record 5 days ago. As of today there are 259 deaths. Five days ago there were about 2700 reported cases, implying a death rate of about 9.5%, which is about the same as SARS. If this pattern continues, worldwide deaths tomorrow should be about 420, and 560 by Sunday night.

Alanki
Alanki

When it comes to China, there exists some kind of switch in many people that just goes off.... rationality out the drain.


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