Consumer Spending Projections


Every month the NY Fed surveys consumers as to what they will spend in the upcoming year. The Downtrend is still intact.

The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that consumers are more optimistic.

In the latest set of SCE results, 40.2 percent of respondents say that their household financial situation has improved compared to a year ago—the highest such reading since the survey’s inception in June 2013. Consumers’ outlook for the year ahead has also improved, with only 10.2 percent of respondents expecting their household to be worse off financially in twelve months’ time, down from 12.5 percent in January.


However, consumers do not expect to spend any more. The downtrends are still intact on one-year look-ahead spending projections.

Median Look-Ahead Spending Expectations

  • October: 2.84%
  • November: 3.58%
  • December: 2.89%
  • January: 2.85%
  • February: 2.95%

There was a significant dip at the 75th percentile from 8 percent to 6 percent. The stock market perhaps?

Economists say that because consumers feel good, they will spend more. Here we have a survey that actually asks consumers what they will spend, but the Fed does not believe its own survey.

Instead, the Fed places faith in the University of Michigan and Conference board surveys which closely track the stock market (sometimes the price of gasoline if it is doing something unusual).

A retail spending report is out later this morning. Economists expect a 0.4% bounce following a dismal 0.3% decline in January and a 0.1% decline in December. If spending does not rebound, GDP estimates will dive.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (6)
No. 1-6

Our leaders have simply hallowed out our economy. There is no recovery: it's just a statistical mirage.


what drive consumer spending?GOV'T CHECKS,USSA economic model is now driven ENTIRELLY by MASSIVE (as in capital M)Gov't borrowing/taxing/printing NOTHIN ELSE,other than massive dept \USSA produses nothing (less than nothing)


Their projections/predictions are usually as accurate as anything the EIA predicts/projects. They don't know what they are talking about.


You are correct. Debt on top of debt and yet more debt. And also the Federal Reserve trying in vain to reflate the economy. The Federal Reserve is run by fools, in my opinion.


I wonder how much of the GDP growth has been from govt debt. If you would back out the trillions of govt deficit over the years true private sector GDP would pretty low. I would think the majority of the GDP growth has been based on govt deficit spending which is unproductive growth o


Gov't debt is actually gov't stimulus. Remember Helicopter Ben Bernanke. He was ready to fly over the country in his helicopter and drop cash from the sky so people would use it to spend and buy things and help stimulate the economy. What a guy.

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