Conservatives Make Huge Gains at Labour's Expense in London
Survation says the Tories have a 46.6% to 29.1% advantage over Labour.
Unfortunately, as a Tory backer, I do not believe that chart. It's possible, but more than likely it is shows huge sampling error.
Here are some additional polls.
London Deltapoll Nov 21-23
DeltaPoll has a 38% to 30% advantage for the Tories. I don't quite buy that either, but it is more likely.
London ComRes Nov 20-21
Comres sees things as a 39% to 39% tie up from a Labour advantage of 39% to 32% on November 19.
To me that seems about right.
Most of the polls show the Tories picking up support.
YouGov was an exception. It has a 44%-29% advantage of Labour on Nov 21-22.
I asked YouGov earlier today for complete regional breakouts like ComRes does and they directed me to a report that was extremely stale.
As I was typing, ICM came out with another poll. It has the Tories at 41%, Labour at 34%, and the Liberal Democrats at 13%.
The research dates were Nov 22-25.
Is that possible?
Yes. Damn near anything is possible. But despite drop to a 7% net advantage, note that all of the gain was due to a Labour pickup over the Liberal Democrats.
It is widely recognized that Liberal democrat Jo Swinson had a disastrous performance in BBC debates a few days ago.
Disastrous Swinson Performance
Assuming that is the cause of the Labour lift, one has to wonder if it continues, reverses, or does nothing from here.
My admittedly biased guess is that it reverses.
Regardless, please recall that ICM was the last holdout on a sub-10% Tory lead and this did little but take that back.
Labour Party Poll Trends
Except for one obscure data point, the entire ICM Labour trendline is above everything else.
That does not make it wrong, but it does make it very questionable.
Tory Party Poll Trends
I believe it is reasonably safe to throw away the Opinium trendline as garbage.
But also note the ICM Tory trendline is the lowest. At least it is in the tight cluster, albeit at the bottom end.
Tight Trends vs Wide Trends
If one visually removes Opinium, the Tory polls are in a very tight range and have been since Nov 12.
In contrast.the band of polls for labour is widening.
Meanwhile, it appears Labour is faltering a bit in London, on average if we toss away You-Gov and Survation outliers.
ICM posted no details yet so we cannot further dive into the polls.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock