China Trade Data is Nail in the Coffin of Global Economy
Eamonn Sheridan at Forex Live has some interesting comments on China's December Trade Balance.
The export figures are a focus and they are poor indeed. But save some space in the barf bag for the import results, they are terrible - huge miss on these.
Demand in China has been showing evidence of slowing. This is a nail in the coffin.
December 2018 Data - Yuan Terms
- China trade balance comes in at CNY 395bn, expected CNY 345bn, prior was CNY 306bn
- Exports 0.2% y/y, expected 6.6%, prior was 10.2%... BIG MISS
- Imports -3.1% y/y, expected 12.0%, prior was 7.8% … even bigger miss
December 2018 Data - US Dollar Terms
- China trade balance USD 57.06bn, expected $51.6bn, prior was $44.7bn
- Exports -4.4% y/y, expected 2.0%, prior 5.4%
- Imports -7.6% y/y, expected 4.5%, prior was 3.0%
Chinese Investment in the US Slumps to 7-Yr Low
The Financial Times reports Chinese Investment in the US Slumps to 7-Yr Low
Including $13bn in US asset divestitures by Chinese investors, China’s net US investment actually shrank by $8bn in 2018.
Worst China Data in 15 Years
Expect "Greatest Deal Ever"
Both the US and China desperately need a deal.
So, as I stated 5 days ago, Expect a Deal With China, Just Don't Expect Much From It.
And should there be a deal, expect announcements of the "greatest deal ever" no matter how trivial the deal really is.
Europe Likely in Recession Now: Germany, France, Italy Production Collapsed
In case you missed it, Europe Likely in Recession Now: Germany, France, Italy Production Collapsed
German, French, and Italian industrial production collapsed in November. Italy GDP is negative for 3rd Quarter.
A global recession is on deck.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock