China's Alleged "Victory Plan" Over the US Dollar
Daniel Lacalle vs Peter Schiff
The winner by a mile is Lacalle. There is no victory for China.
Here are some reasons Lacalle did not mention, but I have mentioned on numerous occasions.
- As long as China runs a trade surplus with the US, it will accumulate US assets, primarily US treasuries. The recent instances in which China allegedly "dumped" treasures was in fact a move to stop capital flight.
- China does not even float the yuan. It is sheer idiocy to promote the yuan as a reserve currency or even a major global currency until it does.
- To hold the status of the world's reserve currency, China would have to be willing to run trade deficits instead of seeking trade surpluses via subsidized exports.
- The US has the largest and most liquid bond market in the world. China has next to nothing.This is another requirement to having a currency widely held and used in trade.
- The US has property rights and human rights that are nonexistent in China. Even if yuan-based bonds existed, who wants to hold them with that backdrop?
The twin sister of "Victory Plan" silliness is Petroyuan silliness.
I discussed many of the above ideas in Gold-Backed Petro-Yuan Silliness: Reserve Currency Curse?
also consider Petroyuan's Crash at Birth.
China is not remotely capable of what Schiff claims and I highly doubt it will be any closer 10 years from now. Chinese banks and SOE are in horrendous shape and the yuan would likely crash if China floated it now.
Mike 'Mish" Shedlock