Cases Surge and Covid Deaths Top 10,000 in Just 4 Days

Mish

The US now has the dubious honor of being first in cases per million.

Covid Deaths Per Million 7-Day Average

Daily New Covid Deaths Per Million 2020-12-03

Positive Test Rate

Positive Test Rate 2020-12-02

The US also leads in positive test rate of tests. This suggests the true number of cases may be far higher than confirmed cases.

Daily Deaths 

Worldometers Global Covid Leaders 2020-12-03

The US had 2,718 deaths yesterday, 2,921 two days ago, and  over 10,000 in the previous four days.

Since deaths lag cases and Thanksgiving is not yet factored in, these numbers are highly likely to get worse.

Mish

Comments (102)
aprnext
aprnext

and a 'case' is?? sorry, I'm behind the times, so to speak. Definition?

ReadyKilowatt
ReadyKilowatt

So what are we doing wrong? Is there anything right or wrong to do? The overwhelming majority (over 80%) of the public is wearing masks and not engaging in unnecessary activity. Are we going to just keep this up? Ratchet up the restrictions in activity even more? Wrap ourselves in Tyvec and breathe through HEPA filters? This cannot continue.

shamrock
shamrock

The leading cause of death in the United States is normally heart disease with an average of around 1,740 per day. Covid deaths are now 50% higher than that and likely going and staying higher still. The commander in chief could not care less.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

US is also a nation with high obesity rates vs others.
It matters, susceptibility to Covid mortality increases.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

As the community spread rises, my job gets more dangerous....we continue to take all the steps we can to avoid being part of the problem.....which has worked for us. But with asymptomatic spreaders out there, it’s an imperfect system.....a numbers game.

I think about my own mortality a lot now, like I did back in the early spring when the first wave hit.

I tell patients how much I appreciate them following instructions.....queuing up in their cars.....communicating with the front desk by phone.....wearing their masks properly.

Believe it or not we have had people calling up looking for a dental office where they can be seen without having to wear a mask.....and it is the same demographic as the anti-vaxxer crowd....they still think COVID is a hoax.

If there were a shot that cured stupidity, they’d be too dumb to take it.

njbr
njbr

Meanwhile, in a world we pretend doesn't exist...

Another 'donut day' in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam:

0 domestic cases
0 deaths

We live in a country of stubborn stupidity.

4% of the population in the world--20% of the cases and deaths.

One lock-down should have been sufficient for a lesson on how to deal with this.

Sabotage from the top, on down.

njbr
njbr

Current projections...

With rapid rollout of vaccine---488K to 580K dead by April 1st

njbr
njbr

You should note that the places that have instituted lock-down have knocked the number of cases down. A decrease in deaths will follow.

But,but, but what about all the drug overdoses and suicides and missed illnesses in lock-down?

A little bit of outrageous comparison for you....

Think about it, aren't those people just as weak as the others that are most likely to die from covid? Why should we coddle their weakness above any others weakness? What is more special about a drug addict, a depressive, a guy with chest pains, than an immune compromised person?

If you don't want to enter those murky waters of judging the value of people--do the little stuff so you don't have to pull ou the big gun of lock-downs.

Hey, I'm traumatized by a piece of cloth on my face...

But we're on a runaway train right now, so we'll have to see who gets dumped out the window.

nzyank
nzyank

And the current US administration is MIA. What an abject failure....

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

We’re doomed. Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em, and don’t forget, 3 out of ; doctors smoke Kools!

davebarnes2
davebarnes2

USA #1
"Murica is Great!

Sechel
Sechel

We're surpassing the daily death rate of 9/11 and the President is AWOL, preferring to play the victim on his election loss and strategize pardons for his family

Webej
Webej

Neither chart is proportional.
The positive ratio should be proportional to the number of tests/million performed. The positive tests should be proportional to the population && to the number of tests/million performed.
The first chart is proportional to the population but not the number of tests.
The second chart is absolute numbers, with positive ratio indicated by color, but not proportional to numbers of tests.
With numbers, interpretation without context may be misleading.

Realist
Realist

My grandparents lived through WWI, the Spanish Flu Pandemic, the great depression, WWII, and Polio. They sacrificed a lot, and did everything they could to help win these wars.

Thanks to the substantial sacrifices of these previous generations, we all get to live in a land of plenty and freedom that they could have only dreamed of. How sad is it that so many people today can't be patriotic enough to wear a mask and social distance for a few months.

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Don't know about others, but I see only one informative item in the four images: That there are two groups of countries in the rather arbitrarily chosen dozen in the last image.

The two groups:

  1. India, Russia, Germany.
  2. The others.

Pretty much any other "information" in these graphics is misdirection, at best.

Talk about ineptitude: Nine months in to this thing and about the only generally useful number publicly available is total deaths per capita. Deaths per cap are muddied by such things as population age (e.g. Italy, Florida, Africa), but that mud is transparent compared to the mud mixed with things like (Good God) test result totals.

One or two other commenters have noted that there are two groups of geopolitical entities in the world with respect to Covid:

  1. West Pacific (Taiwan, Oz, Korea, Japan, NZ, etc.)
  2. Everyone else.

And for those of you who speak of the horrors of the US government/administration, those West Pacific places share a simple method:

  1. Close the border.
  2. Inside the border, insure that people stop physically interacting with other people.
  3. Super-double-down on #2 when anyone shows any Covid symptom.
  4. Keep the border closed with a hard quarantine.

Now, imagine the headlines when Trump tries to implement step 1. Or Biden/Harris.

Realist
Realist

Another comparison. Individual US States vs the countries with the highest numbers of Deaths/million.

New Jersey 1958

New York 1793

Massachusetts 1583

Belgium 1467

Connecticut 1443

Louisiana 1409

Rhode Island 1334

Mississippi 1316

North Dakota 1298

South Dakota 1203

Peru 1091

Illinois 1088

Michigan 1013

csayler
csayler

What's weird to me is how the CDC is now recommending a SHORTER quarantine period, down to a week from two. How does that even make sense? Is it because the elections are over and now they want people back to work?

Jmurr
Jmurr

I wear my mask (it is required in the parish where I live). Having traveled abroad, I have to wonder if the highest death rate in US is due to the overall obesity and poor health of Americans.

AussiePete
AussiePete

Ivermectin might be the answer. 100% of 22 randomised trials show effectiveness, from 90% improvement of symptoms for early treatment, to 72% improvement for delayed treatment

BoneIdle
BoneIdle

The reality is, that barring a real vaccine breakthrough all those places will inevitably end up with the virus going through the population. The economic consequences are going to be horrendous later on. Australia is kicking the can down the road on the economic front. There will eventually be a a 2 Trillion dollar blow out in the deficit. 2 Trillion for a country with the population of 25 million.
Yet to come is the lifting of moratoriums of mortgage and rental payments. Yet to come is the lifting of the subsidizing of the helicopter money for all.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Interesting Rob Arnott interview on Kingworld News.
Arnott is good with quant/numbers.

One comment was death-rate in sub 60 year olds is likely to be higher due to lockdown than due to CV-19.

Think about that for a while.
Who will take responsibility for that.

I think Arnott may be proven correct.

JMOD46
JMOD46

Does the US count Covid deaths the same way other countries do? My understanding is that anyone who dies in a US hospital with a positive Covid test or with supposed symptoms of Covid is a Covid death. That being the case, a motorcycle accident victim, a 90-year-old with a sudden heart attack, or a diabetic in a coma who fits the definition set forth earlier, is a Covid death even if the actual cause of death is from another underlying condition. Plus, there is a financial incentive from the US government. Covid deaths pay out big money to hospitals. Finally, a positive PCR Covid diagnosis run with a cycle threshold of 40 (a Lab Corp standard, as I understand) means that a single viral nucleotide sequence will have been expanded by 1,000,000,000,000 times to produce a "positive" diagnosis. You won't die from that level of "infection", period.

So what is it? Are actual Covid deaths over-estimated by 10%, 20%, 30%, or more?

JMOD46
JMOD46

Does the US count Covid deaths the same way as other countries? My understanding is that if you die in a hospital with a positive Covid test result or have symptoms of Covid, you are counted as a Covid death. So, a motorcycle accident victim, a 90-year-old with a heart attack, or a diabetic in a coma will be counted as a Covid death even if the actual cause is something other than Covid. Additionally, there is an increased government payout if the cause of death is Covid. Might that incentive color the decision as to cause of death? Finally, a PCR test run at a cycle threshold of 40 (supposedly a standard for Lab Corp) means that a single viral nucleotide sequence will be magnified by 1,000,000,000,000 times. A single viral nucleotide sequence is not a viral load that will kill you, period.

So what is it? Are Covid deaths actually over-estimated by 10%, 20%, or more? I suppose the answer might depend on what your politics are.

Irondoor
Irondoor

I had it. I'm over it. Back to normal activities, but I still wear a mask where required. It is a most unpleasant experience. Nothing like it as far as I am concerned, though I have had a lifetime of virtually no physical ailments and no comorbidities. I am 76.


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