Brexit Party Surge: Tories Drop to 5th Place in European Parliament Polls


The European Parliament polls rate to be a disaster for the Tories. But Labour is not the beneficiary.

Tory Blues

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The Opinium Poll has the Tories in 4th place.

Haunting Words

Deal With the Devil

The Guardian Live forum has this interesting comment by Nigel Farage when asked if he would make a deal with Labour.

"If we could save £39bn, come out of the customs union, come out of the single market, come out of the jurisdiction of the European court of justice and be a genuinely independent, self-governing democracy that could choose its own future, I’d do a deal with the devil to get that."

Farage Denies Border Delays

I spoke to the head of the pharmaceutical industry, the head of their lobbyists, and said: “What about all these scare stories about drugs?” He said: “Absolute, total nonsense. Everybody is prepared.”

And the president of the port of Calais has said there will be no increased transport times as a result of a WTO Brexit. All of this is doable. You know, business finds a way through every different situation. And, frankly, if you look at trade around the world now, where tariffs are due, this is all logged online, very often done by people on their mobile phones. The idea that somehow we are going to be cut off is utter nonsense.

UK Worse Off Under a Customs Union

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) found that Jeremy Corbyn's Proposal Would Hit Britain’s National Income by £80bn a Year.

The analysis found that the UK economy would shrink by 3.1%, with an exit from the EU single market presenting higher barriers to trade in services and on the assumption that net inward migration would go down.

Garry Young, the director of macromodelling and forecasting for the NIESR, said: “Leaving the EU for a customs union will make it more costly for the UK to trade with a large market on our doorstep, particularly in services which make up 80 per cent of our economy.

Big Beneficiary

Labour was supposed to be the big beneficiary of the Brexit mess.

It wasn't. The newly formed Brexit Party was.

Toss party alliances out the window.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (16)
No. 1-7

From time to time democracy gets real. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Nigel Farage are two good examples.


Fantastic news on the opinion polls.

If Theresa May was loyal to the Tory party and its natural supporters, her route would be clear. Quickly find a way to leave the EU, either with a miraculous deal that isnt yet on the table, or with No Deal. The former might actually be possible when the EU sees that No Deal has become a real possibility. If a car salesman doesnt believe the customer will walk away, the deal he offers will be a bad one. The EU will now have to face up to the walk away possibility and change their stance accordingly.

I was pessimistic that we wouldnt be able to get out of the EU, but if these opinion polls are correct, then we will leave. Last thing the Labour and Tory parties want is someone to challenge their duopoly. The remainers in these parties wanted both a) to keep the duopoly and b) remain in the EU. They wont be able to achieve both goals with this level of support for the Brexit party. It is either a) or nothing.


The only reason the "Brexit Party" and Nigel Farage did so well in the EU elections is that neither the Tory nor the Labour parties offered a hard Brexit. Most of the sitting members of the Labour party and almost all of the Conservative party sitting members are remainers and want a custom union of some kind. The people most affected by the past 10+ years of austerity want out of the EU.


Well it looks like the future of the UK is looking increasingly like hard be it, I think that Europe just got its second referendum, and the "leave" party account for nearly 40% of the electorate! That's not a sign, that its sign with flashing neons.

So be it!


Sorry, but the Brexit Party success doesn’t solve anything. There is still a minority of British voters who want a no deal Brexit. Even if the Brexit party got 45% of the vote in a parliamentary election it wouldn’t be enough to force through no deal legislation. UK voter opinion is still divided to allow any single option to get through parliament (be it a no-deal Brexit, customs union, remain, or anything else). Pretty much the ONLY thing you can get a majority of MPs to agree on is to defeat any particular Brexit proposal.


May leaves behind quite a legacy. Not many leaders can come in with a majority, and leave with their party having less than 10% support (she is 10% now, but the trend is not her friend).


The old 'major' parties have corrupted beyond representation for anybody. Single issues and single populists have more sway with voters now. The same is true in the US.

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